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论文编号：	5798
作者编号：	2120112765
上传时间：	2013/12/4 20:27:26
中文题目：	天津国际金融中心项目投资决策研究
英文题目：	An Research on Investment Decision-Making of Tianjin International Financial Center Project
指导老师：	黄福广
中文关键字：	超高层写字楼；天津国际金融中心；实物期权；扩展净现值
英文关键字：	the ultra high office building; Tianjin International Financial Center; real option; the expanded NPV
中文摘要：	超高层写字楼的投资回报相对稳定并且较高，渐渐成为了商业地产投资市场的主流。但是，超高层写字楼项目具有投资周期较长、投资金额较大、资产流动性较低等特点，投资过程中会面临各种风险，从而导致投资收益的不确定性。本文的分析研究力图对超高层写字楼项目的投资决策提供参考。 本文首先介绍了传统净现值法的局限性和实物期权法的优越性，然后对国内外相关领域的主要研究成果进行了梳理。最后以天津国际金融中心项目的开发建设为实例，采用了定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法，运用二叉树期权定价模型，从实物期权的角度对传统净现值法进行了修正，运用SWOT分析、项目盈亏分析、项目扩展净现值模型分析以及敏感性分析对该项目的投资决策过程进行研究。 通过期权方式评价项目投资决策并提出扩展净现值模型，目的是把管理柔性这一弹性价值进一步量化并确定下来。当然我们并没有完全放弃传统净现值法，而是从实物期权的角度出发，把管理柔性的弹性价值对于项目总价值的贡献也考虑了进来，这样我们才能正确估算投资项目的总价值。 本文通过研究分析得出了如下结论：一是我国的超高层写字楼投资市场尚处于起步阶段，更应该加强对超高层写字楼项目投资决策的研究，避免盲目投资。二是在投资决策的过程中必须正确运用合适的风险分析方法，强化风险意识。三是传统净现值分析法存在一定的局限性，没有考虑不确定性和风险因素对于期权价值的贡献，实际操作中可以考虑从实物期权的角度进行修正，以进行科学合理的投资决策。
英文摘要：	The investment return of the ultra high office building is relatively stable and higher, and it becomes the mainstream of the commercial real estate investment market gradually. However, its characteristics are the longer investment cycle, larger amount, and lower asset liquidity. The investment process will face various risks, which leads to the uncertainty of investment return. This paper tries to provide reference for the investment decision-making of the ultra high office building project. This paper first introduces the limitations of the traditional NPV method and the superiorities of the real option method, and then reviews the domestic and foreign related research findings. Finally with the development of Tianjin International Financial Center project for instance, adopts the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, this paper amends the traditional NPV method from the angle of real option by applying binomial option pricing model, and studies the investment decision-making process by using the SWOT analysis, break-even analysis, the expanded NPV model analysis and sensitivity analysis. By the option evaluation of project investment decision-making and the expanded NPV model, the purpose is to quantify and confirm the elastic value of management flexibility. Of course, we do not completely abandon the traditional NPV method, but starting from the angle of real option, the contribution of the elastic value of management flexibility for the total value of the project is also taken into account in, so that we can correctly estimate the total value of investment project. Through the research we conclude that, first, the ultra high office building investment market in our country is still in its infancy, its research should be strengthened, and blind investment should be avoided. Second, the appropriate risk analysis methods should be applied, strengthening the risk consciousness. Third, the traditional NPV analysis method has certain limitation, without considering the contribution of uncertainty and risk factors for the option value, we can amend it from the angle of real option to make scientific and rational investment decisions.
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