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论文编号：	5733
作者编号：	2220110442
上传时间：	2013/12/4 9:08:24
中文题目：	济南卷烟厂易地技术改造项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	The study on risk management of Ji''''nan cigarette factory out-of-spot technical transformation project
指导老师：	戚安邦
中文关键字：	烟草，易地技术改造，项目，风险管理
英文关键字：	Tobacco，Change the place and change the technology，Project risk Management
中文摘要：	近年来，世界经济形势日趋复杂，投资仍然是中国提升经济的重要手段之一。在这种形势下，烟草行业由于其本身的特殊性和技术改造频繁的特点，在行业主管部门的宏观调控和管理下，各地的卷烟厂纷纷开始进行新一轮的技术改造，既响应国家政策，也在利用技术改造提升技术水平，促进技术进步和效益提升。烟草行业内按照产量规模开始分批实施技术改造项目，众多大型卷烟厂因受厂区用地限制无法扩大生产规模而选择易地技术改造，由于卷烟厂易地技术改造项目投资动辄十几亿，甚至几十亿，投资额巨大，项目工艺程序复杂，在实施过程中具有很大的风险，稍有不慎便会导致项目失败，造成巨大的投资浪费和国有资产损失。因此，利用成熟的项目风险管理理论对卷烟厂易地技术改造项目进行全面的风险管理研究尤为重要。 本论文首先对项目管理理论和项目风险管理理论进行了系统研究；紧接着对济南卷烟厂易地技术改造项目概况和实施阶段做了简要介绍，继而对济南卷烟厂易地技术改造项目的独特性进行了说明，在此基础上综合应用文献分析法和情境分析法、SWOT法对该项目风险进行了定性分析，给出了项目风险清单；随后按照项目立项、实施、试生产和竣工验收四个阶段对项目风险进行了分类，综合应用德尔菲法和损失期望值法对不同阶段的风险进行了评价，给出了管理的先后顺序；最后结合济南卷烟厂易地技术改造项目的实际情况制定了应对各类风险的具体措施，以降低项目风险发生概率，削减项目损失，确保完成项目目标。
英文摘要：	In the recent years, the world economic situation is becoming increasingly complex and it is still an important means to enhance economic through investment to spur economic development in China is still. Under this situation, In consideration of the special features and frequent technical transformation of the tobacco industry, in the macro-control and management of the State Tobacco Monopoly Bureau, many cigarette factories have launched large-scale technical transformation projects, not only in response to the national policy, but also in improving the technical level of utilization of technological transformation, promoting technological progress and efficiency. In accordance with the production scale, the tobacco industry is starting to implement technological transformation projects gradually; many large cigarette factories cannot expand the scale of production because of the land limit and select the out-of-spot transformation. It is easily to be over 1 billion in investment for cigarette factory of technological transformation projects, even billions, huge investment, project process is complex, with a great risk in the process of implementation, a little carelessness will lead to project failure, causing great waste of investment and the loss of state-owned assets. Therefore, the research on comprehensive risk management to technical renovation project of cigarette factory is particularly important to utilize the risk management theory of mature project. Firstly, this thesis has conducted the system research to the theory of risk management theory and project management; with that by the general situation and the implementation phase of the Ji'nan cigarette factory technical transformation projects are briefly introduced, and then to state the technical renovation project of Ji'nan cigarette factory. On the basis of comprehensive application of the literature analysis method and situation analysis method, SWOT method for the project risk analysis, gives a list of risks in the project; the project, implementation, commissioning and completion of the four phase project has carried on the classification to the project risk, comprehensive application of Delphi method and the expected loss of value to appraise the risk in different stage of law, gives successively order management; specific measures according to the actual situation of Ji'nan cigarette factory technical transformation projects developed to cope with different risk, in order to reduce the risk occurrence probability and the loss of purpose, to ensure the project to achieve the intended target.
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