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论文编号：	567
作者编号：	2120062070
上传时间：	2008/6/19 22:24:58
中文题目：	不确定性对中国上市公司固定资产
英文题目：	Research on the Impact of Unce
指导老师：	黄福广
中文关键字：	不确定性 固定资产投资 不可逆性
英文关键字：	Uncertainty Fixed Assets Inv
中文摘要：	不确定性是影响固定资产投资决策的重要因素之一，随着环境变化速度的日益加快，固定资产投资项目决策受不确定性因素影响而出现失误的风险也越来越大。目前中国还处于转轨经济时期，企业面临多种不确定性因素，正确认识不确定性对企业固定资产投资的影响对于企业制定科学的投资决策具有重要的意义。鉴于此，本研究就不确定性对企业固定资产投资的影响进行比较系统和深入地探讨，以期对企业制定科学的投资决策、政府管理部门制定有关的企业政策提供有益的思路。 具体来说，本研究做了以下工作。首先，详细地回顾了国内外相关的研究文献；其次，介绍了企业固定资产投资决策过程中的不确定性种类和产生根源，并结合中国实际分析了环境中的各种不确定性因素；再次，在现有研究成果和本研究理论分析的基础上结合转型期中国企业投资的特点，将政策、经济环境变化引入到不可逆投资中，建立了不确定性条件下的最优投资模型。实证部分利用调查问卷通过建立结构方程分析了政策不确定性和经济环境不确定性确实对企业的投资有显著的影响，政策环境变化带来的不确定性对投资的影响大于经济环境的影响；并基于托宾Q模型和销售加速模型，建立了时间序列/截面数据模型（Panel-Data Model），利用中国A股上市公司的部分交易数据和财务数据，采用可行的固定效应对模型进行了回归分析。 本文的最终研究结论：(1)不论是全样本还是分样本（国有上市公司、非国有上市公司），不确定性对公司固定资产投资都具有显著的负影响。(2)不确定性对非国有上市公司固定资产投资的负影响明显大于对国有上市公司固定资产投资的负影响。(3)非国有上市公司既不符合Tobin’s Q 模型，也不符合销售加速模型。非国有上市公司的投资受融资约束和不确定性的影响很大，而受投资机会和销售比率的影响很少。
英文摘要：	Uncertainty is one of the most important factors that affect the fixed assets investment decision-making of enterprises’. The change of the environment is becoming quicker and quicker, and the possibility of making the wrong decision because of the effect of uncertainty is bigger and bigger. At present, China is still at the stage of transition, enterprises face many kinds of uncertainties. Realizing the effects of uncertainty to fixed assets investment rightly is very important for the enterprises to make scientific investment decisions. Owing to these, this paper makes a systematic and deep research on the effects of uncertainty to fixed assets investment decision-making of enterprises in order to help enterprises make scientific investment decision and help the government make the right policies. Totally speaking, this paper does the following work. Firstly, reviews the relative literature on this topic in detail. Secondly, introduces the kinds of uncertainties in fixed assets investment decision-making and their roots. At the same time, combining with Chinese fact, this paper analyzes some kinds of uncertainties in the environment. On the bases of former researches and this paper’s theoretical analyses, introduces uncertainty caused by policy and economic change into the model, puts forward the optimal investment model under uncertainty. The empirical research part show that policy and economic environment uncertainty have significant effects on fixed assets investment of companies’, uncertainty caused by policy environment changes has more effects than economic environment. Based on Tobin’s Q model and sales accelerator model, establishes the Panel-Data Model. Finally, using the business and financial data of Chinese manufacturing listed companies’ and Generalized Least Squares method estimates the regression models and draws some conclusions. The conclusions of this paper contains: (1) No matter what kinds of samples – whole sample or part samples (state-own or non-state-own), and whether considering investment opportunities and financial constraint or not, uncertainty have significant negative effects on fixed assets investment of companies’. (2) Uncertainty has a more significantly negative effect on fixed assets investment of non-state-own companies than on state-own companies’. (3) Non-state-own listed companies’ investment neither complies with Tobin’s Q model nor sales acceleration model. Contrast to state-own listed companies, non-state-own listed companies suffer more greatly with financial constraint and uncertainty than Tobin’s Q and sales.
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