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论文编号：	5633
作者编号：	2220110759
上传时间：	2013/11/26 22:33:04
中文题目：	长征V号运载火箭项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	The Research On Risk Management of Long March V Launch Vehicle Project
指导老师：	李莉
中文关键字：	运载火箭，项目风险管理，风险评价，风险控制
英文关键字：	Launch vehicle, Project risk management, Risk evaluation, Risk control
中文摘要：	长征V号运载火箭项目系统性强、技术复杂、研制周期长，投资巨大，受各种制约因素影响，是一项极其复杂的、高风险的、全系统、全寿命的工作。各类风险存在于研制过程的各个环节，风险导致运载火箭研制存在“拖进度、超预算、涨费用、降指标”等问题，一旦发生了重大的风险事故将会给航天事业带来极大的影响和巨大的经济损失，社会影响严重、波及面广。如何根据运载火箭研制的规律和特点，有效运用风险管理的方法，辨识可能存在的各种风险，评估产生的后果，采取主动的风险策略，建立风险应对计划，为决策提供风险控制指导，正确规避风险已成为影响长征V号运载火箭项目成败的关键所在。 本文针对长征V号运载火箭项目风险的主要特征和项目风险管理存在的问题，运用项目风险管理理论对长征V号运载火箭项目风险管理进行了研究。通过方案优化设计，提供了长征V号运载火箭项目风险识别的常用方法和工具、风险识别的主要风险源；用FMEA方法进行风险分析，确定风险危害程度等级分类、风险可能性等级分类、风险综合评价等级，给出风险排序；介绍了长征V号运载火箭项目风险应对策略所采用的风险预防与回避措施、风险转移与分散措施、风险承担与利用措施等方法；明确了风险管理工作要求，给出了各阶段进行风险沟通需要的风险信息输出结果及应监控的风险控制点。 长征V号运载火箭项目管理过程繁杂，其风险管理有其特殊性，结合战略管理理论、系统理论和破产成本理论，建立了长征V号运载火箭项目风险管理的组织结构，确定了各层级风险管理工作职责，梳理了项目研制各阶段风险控制主要内容，进一步完善了各类风险和各研制阶段重点风险源的风险控制内容、采取的风险管理策略和应对措施。为持续不断改进完善，确保风险管理措施有效提出了建议。
英文摘要：	Long March V Launch Vehicle Project is a systematic technical complexity long development cycle huge investment various constraints complex and high risk .This an extremely complex whole system whole life’s work. Various types of risk exist in all aspects of the development process. There is risk of causing a launch vehicle "drag schedule over budget rising costs lower targets" and other issues. In the event of a major accident risks to the aerospace industry will bring great impact and huge economic losses serious social impact reach wide. How the rules and characteristics of rocket development and effective use of risk management approach to identify possible risks assessing the consequences of proactive risk strategy. The establishment of risk response plans and risk control guidance for decision-making. The right to circumvent risk has an impact Long March V Launch Vehicle key success of the project. In this paper, the main features Long March V Launch Vehicle project risk and project risk management problems and the use of project risk management theory for Long March V Launch Vehicle project Risk Management studied. Through optimization design project risk identification provided Long March V Launch Vehicle common methods and tools risk identification of the main sources of risk. Using FMEA approach to risk analysis to determine the degree of risk of harm classification risk probability classification risk assessment levels given the risk sorting introduced. Long March V Launch Vehicle project risk coping strategies used by risk prevention and avoidance measures risk transfer and dispersion measures risk measures and the use of other methods. Clear risk management requirements for each stage are given information about the risks of risk communication needs to be monitored and the output of the risk control points. Long March V Launch Vehicle Project management process complex, its risk management has its particularity , combining strategic management theory , systems theory and bankruptcy costs theory a Long March V Launch Vehicle project risk management organizational structure determine the level of risk management responsibilities , combing the various stages of the project development risk control main content , to further improve the various risks and focus on the development phase of the risk sources risk control and taken risk management strategies and response measures . Is continuously improved, to ensure effective risk management measures proposed.
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