联系我们

论文查询结果	返回搜索

论文编号：	5487
作者编号：	1120090683
上传时间：	2013/6/8 20:49:45
中文题目：	产业政策不确定性、投资者情绪与企业投资——基于战略性新兴产业的实证研究
英文题目：	Industrial Policy Uncertainty, Investor Sentiment and Corporate Investment: An Empirical Study Based on Strategic and Emerging Industry
指导老师：	刘志远
中文关键字：	政策不确定性，投资者情绪，企业投资
英文关键字：	Policy Uncertainty, Investor Sentiment, Corporate Investment
中文摘要：	2008年全球金融危机爆发以来，各国政府纷纷通过各种措施干预经济，以提升市场信心促进本国经济尽快走出低迷。其中多个发达经济体制定了发展新兴产业的相关政策，希望借此不仅促进经济更快复苏且为抢占未来经济竞争制高点做准备。在此期间，我国政府最先预期推出九大行业振兴计划，后来演变为十大行业振兴计划，2009年又制定了振兴七大战略性新兴产业的相关政策。 危机期间政府政策的密集出台引发了大家对还将出台何种政策的强烈预期。而且即使政策已经制定，在具体实施细则未颁布之前，大家对政策将如何实施以及将产生何种影响都存在很大程度的不确定性预期。很多经济学家认为正是由于政策的不确定性阻碍了企业投资从而延缓了经济复苏，然而不确定性也意味着更多投资机会，机会丧失对企业的影响同样可能是致命的。 政策不确定性同时带来资本市场的剧烈反应，导致投资者出现非理性预期，股票出现误定价。面对政策不确定性，管理层也希望从其他个体反应中“感知”增量的政策信息，而资本市场是管理层观测他人政策反应的一个重要媒介。进一步，管理层自身可能受资本市场投资者非理性预期的影响，进而影响其投资决策。即资本市场非理性反应可能是政策不确定性影响企业投资的一个重要路径。本文在政府干预经济较强的制度背景下，结合政府推出振兴七大战略性新兴产业前后所引发的不确定性预期，研究产业政策不确定性影响企业投资行为的直接作用路径、投资者情绪中介路径以及经济后果。 文章共分为七章。第一章为导论，提出了文章的研究问题和研究意义，对文章涉及的主要概念进行了界定，并介绍了文章的研究思路、研究内容、研究方法以及创新之处。第二章为文献综述，对政策不确定性对企业投资行为、政策不确定性对投资者情绪以及投资者情绪对企业投资等方面的文献进行了系统地梳理，在此基础上，结合振兴七大战略性新兴产业政策推出的制度背景阐述了本文的研究视角；第三章为制度背景分析，考虑到产业政策在我国经济发展中的关键作用，分七大产业论述了振兴战略性新兴产业政策可能存在的不确定影响因素，并结合战略性新兴产业中具有代表性的光伏产业进行了案例分析。第四章为理论分析与研究假说，基于不确定性影响企业投资的基本理论分析以及战略性新兴产业特征，从作用路径和投资效率两个方面提出了文章的基本假设。第五章和第六章对研究假设进行了实证分析。第七章为研究结论与研究展望，对全文研究结论进行了总结，并提出文章的研究局限和未来研究方向。 通过上述理论分析和实证检验，文章主要研究结论如下： 第一，尽管战略性新兴产业政策本身对相关企业具有利好性质，带来投资支出的增加，但是政策不确定性却显著降低了企业投资支出。政策不确定性增加了企业等待期权的价值，加剧了企业未来融资约束的预期以及管理层风险厌恶的程度，导致企业短期内投资降低。而且政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响存在截面差异，市场化程度越高以及政府效率越高的地区企业投资受政策不确定性的影响越小；政策不确定性对七大产业影响不均衡，对产业发展中更具基础性、发展相对不成熟或者前期出现结构性失衡的高端装备制造业、新能源产业和新材料产业影响更为显著，对其他产业影响不显著；对融资约束预期较强以及管理层风险厌恶程度更高的企业影响较显著；出于经济或非经济动机，国有企业“等待”投资的动机更强，从而短期内投资降低也更为显著。 第二，投资者情绪在政策不确定性影响企业投资过程中发挥了中介作用。企业决策者不仅受到政策不确定性的直接影响，而且在面临政策不确定性时，希望从资本市场反应中推测其他决策个体对政策的理解和反应，并可能受到资本市场非理性因素影响产生预期偏误，进而影响其投资决策。由于流通市值更低的上市公司受投资者情绪影响更为强烈，因此情绪中介作用只在流通市值较低的上市公司表现显著，在流通市值较高的上市公司作用不显著。 第三，从投资效率来看，政策不确定性没有显著抑制企业的过度投资，但是却显著增加了企业的投资不足。不过由于我们检验的时间序列较短，仅检验了政策不确定性的短期影响，这种结果可能只预示了战略性新兴产业投资结构的短期性失衡。 文章的创新主要体现在如下方面： 首先，将政策不确定性作为影响企业投资行为的关键变量纳入分析框架，而不只是作为分析背景。拓展了政策不确定性影响企业投资行为的作用路径，丰富了宏观政策影响企业投资的微观理论基础以及相关文献，有利于我们深入了解政策不确定性影响企业投资行为的作用机理，同时也从微观企业视角对政策实施效果进行了检验。 其次，在投资者情绪研究链条上向前一步，针对我国具体的制度背景，指出政策不确定性是影响投资者情绪的一大主要因素。每一次政策变动及其引发的不确定性，都可能使投资者的预期或信念出现系统性偏误。 最后，为考察政府行政干预力量较强背景下，政策不确定性对企业投资行为以及投资效率的影响提供了经验证据。最终也证实政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响因地方政府政策实施不同、产业特征不同以及企业自身特征不同而不同。
英文摘要：	From the outburst of the global financial crisis in 2008, many states interfered in their economy through kinds of measures, in order to enhance the market confidence and get out of the economic downtown as soon as possible. Many developed countries set some policies on emerging industries, and hoped not only promote the economic recovery but also prepare to preempt future economic competitive high ground. During this period, our government was expected to launch the nine industries revitalization plan at first, and then evolved into the ten industries revitalization plan, and drew up the seven strategic and emerging industries revitalization policy in 2009. The intensive promulgation of policies during the crisis induces people’s strong expectations about what policies will be introduced soon. However, even if the policy has been formulated, there are still a lot of uncertain expectations before the detailed rules are laid down, such as how policies will be carried out, and what are their impacts. Many economists believe that it is just because of the policy uncertainty which hampers the corporate investment and slow down the economic recovery. However, uncertainty also means more investment opportunities. It can be fatal for the corporate to loss the opportunities. Policy uncertainty produces the drastic reaction of the capital market at the same time, which can lead to the irrational expectation of investors, and mispricing of the stocks. Facing policy uncertainty, management may hope to “perceive” incremental policy information from other people’s reaction, and capital market is an important intermediary for management to observe how other people react to the policy. Further, management themselves may be affected by the investors’ irrational expectation, and then their investment decisions. That is, capital market irrational reaction may be an important route through which policy uncertainty affects corporate investment. The dissertation studies the direct effect route of how industry policy uncertainty affects corporate investment, and the indirect effect route of how industry policy uncertainty affects corporate investment through the mediating variable of investor sentiment, and its economic consequences under the institutional background which government interfere in economy strongly, and combined with the uncertain expectation induced by the promulgation of the seven strategic and emerging industries revitalization policy. This dissertation consists of seven chapters. Chapter one is introduction, this part puts forward research questions and research implications, and defines the key concepts of the research, and introduces the research frame, research contents, research methods and research innovations. Chapter two is the literature review. This part systematically reviews the literatures of how policy uncertainty affects corporate investment, and how policy uncertainty affects investor sentiment, and how investor sentiment affects corporate investment. Based on the review of the relevant literatures, further puts forward the research perspective of the study, combined with the institutional background of the seven strategic and emerging industries revitalization policy. Chapter three is the institutional background analysis. Considering the important role of industry policy in the economic development of our country, this part discusses the influencing factors of the strategic and emerging industries revitalization policy uncertainties by every one of the seven industries, and conducts a case study on the representive photovoltaic industry. Chapter four is theoretical analysis and research hypotheses. Based on the basic theoretical analysis of how uncertainty affects corporate investment and the characteristics of the strategic and emerging industries, this part develops the research hypotheses from both the function mechanism and investment efficiency aspects. Chapter five and Chapter six are empirical tests on the research hypotheses. Chapter seven is research conclusions and research prospects. This part concludes the dissertation and provides the study limitations and the future research directions. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical tests, the major conclusions of this dissertation are as follows: First, the strategic and emerging industries policy itself is good for related corporations, which may increase their investment expenditure, but the policy uncertainty reduces the investment expenditure significantly. Policy uncertainty increases the value of the waiting option, intensifies the anticipation of financial constraints faced by the corporations and the degree of the risk aversion faced by managements, and leads to the reduction of the investment expenditure in the short run. Further the effects of policy uncertainty on corporate investment have cross-section differences: in the regions of higher marketization degree and higher government efficiency, the effects of policy uncertainty on corporate investment are weaker; the effects of policy uncertainty on seven industries are imbalance, they are more significant in the fundamental industries, immature industries, and structural disequilibrium industries such as high-end equipment manufacturing industry, new energy industry and new material industry, while are not significant in other industries; the higher of the anticipation of financial constraints and the higher of the degree of risk aversion, the more significant of the effects of policy uncertainty on corporate investment; because of the economic or noneconomic incentives, state-owned enterprises have more waiting motivation, then reduce investment expenditure more in the short run. Second, investor sentiment plays a mediating effect through which policy uncertainty affects corporate investment. The enterprises decision makers are not only affected by policy uncertainty directly, but also when faced with policy uncertainty, hope to infer other decision makers’ understandings and reactions to the policy from the capital market. They even can be affected by the irrational factors in the capital market and produce anticipation biases, which affect their investment decision. Because the corporations of low circulation market value are more affected by investor sentiment, the mediating effect of investor sentiment is only significant in the low market value corporations, while it is not significant in the high market value corporations. Third, from the perspective of efficiency of investment, policy uncertainty doesn’t restrain the over-investment of corporations significantly, but increases the under-investment of corporations significantly. However, because the time series is short, it only tests the short run effects of policy uncertainty, and the results may only indicate a short-term unbalance of the investment structure of the strategic and emerging industries. The main innovations of this dissertation are as follows: First, this study brings policy uncertainty into the analysis framework as a key variable which affects corporate investment, rather than just as the analysis background. It expands the effect route which policy uncertainty affects corporate investment, and enriches the microscopic theoretical basis and relevant literatures of how macro policy affects corporate investment, and in favor of going deep into the function mechanism, meanwhile tests the implementation effect of policy from the perspective of microscopic enterprises. Second, this study steps forward in the research chain of investor sentiment, and indicates that policy uncertainty is an important factor influencing investor sentiment in the specific institutional background of our country. Every time the fluctuations in policy with the induced uncertainty, can lead to a systematic bias in the anticipation or belief of investors. Finally, this study provides some empirical evidence of how policy uncertainty affects corporate investment and the efficiency of investment under the background of strong government administration intervention. It confirms finally that the magnitude of the effect of policy uncertainty on corporate investment varies with different local governments, industrial characteristics and corporate characteristics.
查看全文：	预览  下载(下载需要进行登录)