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论文编号：	5441
作者编号：	1120100809
上传时间：	2013/6/7 23:51:04
中文题目：	面向供应链管理的竞争情报分析模型研究
英文题目：	Study on Competitive Intelligence Analysis Model for Supply Chain Management
指导老师：	王知津
中文关键字：	供应链管理，竞争情报分析，定标比超，BP神经网络，决策树，情景分析
英文关键字：	supply chain management，competitive intelligence analysis，benchmarking，BP neural network，decision tree，scenario analysis
中文摘要：	人类社会进入21世纪之后，全球经济一体化进程加速，市场竞争日益激烈，消费者需求越来越呈现出个性化和多样化的态势。在这样的环境下，企业竞争不断改变着形式，供应链就是其中一个主流的方式，越来越多的企业组成了供应链来应对竞争环境，因此，未来的市场竞争将不再是单个企业之间的竞争，而是供应链之间的竞争。竞争情报分析是决策活动的先导活动，为决策提供预测、运筹结果等情报，在供应链竞争时代，也理应为供应链活动提供情报支持。　　　分析了供应链管理和竞争情报分析进行结合的问题，在此背景下，对国内外相关的研究现状进行了述评，认为目前有关供应链管理的竞争情报研究缺乏竞争情报分析环节，大大限制了竞争情报在供应链管理中的作用和影响力，继而引导出本文的研究思路、内容、意义和创新点等。　　　研究了竞争情报分析和供应链管理的基本理论，前者包括竞争情报分析的概念、机制、方法、工具和流程，后者包括供应链的概念和模型、供应链管理的定义和内容以及供应链管理的运营机制。根据竞争情报分析和供应链管理二者的内容、特点和实践情况，认为目前需要优先进行竞争情报分析的供应链管理领域是供应链优化、供应链竞争对手识别、供应链合作伙伴关系管理和供应链风险，因此选择供应链管理的这四个领域进行竞争情报分析的模型研究。　　　在介绍了定标比超法和供应链优化问题的基础上，建立了基于定标比超法的供应链优化模型，该模型包括确定供应链定标比超内容、供应链情报搜集和分析、拟定优化方案和结果评价几个部分。以联想供应链为例进行了案例分析。　　　在介绍了BP神经网络和提出了供应链竞争对手识别问题之后，建立了基于BP神经网络的供应链竞争对手识别模型，该模型的建立过程包括供应链竞争对手识别的指标体系的建立、BP神经网络结构的确定、供应链竞争对手识别模型的建立。使用MATLAB软件进行了算例分析。　　　在介绍了决策树方法和供应链合作伙伴关系管理的基础上，构建了基于决策树方法的供应链合作伙伴关系分析模型，包括三种类型的模型：供应链合作伙伴选择模型、评价模型和流失预警模型，每一个模型的构建过程包括目标属性和决策属性选择、数据准备、数据预处理、决策树构建等步骤。使用SPSS软件进行了算例分析。　　　在介绍了情景分析法和供应链风险问题之后，建立了基于情景分析法的供应链风险分析模型，该模型包括供应链风险关键影响因素的识别、供应链风险情景描述、供应链风险敏感度分析、供应链风险情景分析几个部分。以圣元供应链“激素门”事件为例进行了案例分析。　　本研究的创新点主要有以下几个：　　（1）建立了基于定标比超法的供应链优化模型。结合定标比超法和供应链优化的各自特点，构建了相应地竞争情报分析模型。为经典的定标比超法找到了更宽广的舞台，也丰富了供应链优化的研究内容。　　（2）建立了基于BP神经网络的供应链竞争对手识别模型。结合BP神经网络和供应链竞争对手识别的各自特点，构建了相应的竞争情报分析模型。首次提出供应链竞争对手的概念，指出了其识别问题，并进一步利用BP神经网络构建了供应链竞争对手识别模型。　　（3）建立了基于决策树方法的供应链合作伙伴关系分析模型。把在客户关系分析领域应用十分成功的决策树方法应用于供应链合作伙伴关系分析。结合决策树方法和供应链合作伙伴关系分析的各自特点，构建了相应地竞争情报分析模型。　　（4）建立了基于情景分析法的供应链风险分析模型。结合情景分析法和供应链风险的各自特点，构建了相应地竞争情报分析模型。为经典的情景分析法找到了新的应用领域，也充实了供应链风险的研究内容。
英文摘要：	Human society has came into the 21st century, with the process of global economic integration accelerated, an increasingly competitive market, consumers demand increasingly showing a personalized and diversification trend. In this environment, companies need constantly change competing form.Supply chain is one of the mainstream, more and more enterprises establish supply chain to respond to the competitive environment.Therefore, the future of competition in the market will no longer be a single enterprise between the competition, but the competition between the supply chain. Competitive intelligence analysis is the pilot activities of decision-making process, providing forecast, logistics results intelligence to decision-making, and in the era of competition between supply chain, it is also supposed to provide intelligence support for supply chain activities. 　　　Analyzes the combination of supply chain management and competitive intelligence analysis, in this context, reviews related research commentary. That competitive intelligence research on supply chain management, lack of competitive intelligence analysis links, greatly limiting the role and influence of competitive intelligence in supply chain management. Then,this research’s ideas, content, meaning and innovation are accordingly created. 　　　Discusses the basic theory of competitive intelligence analysis and supply chain management, the former includes the concepts, mechanism, methods,tools and process of competitive intelligence analysis, the latter includes the concepts and models of the supply chain, supply chain management definition ,content and operation mechanism. According to content ,characteristics and practice of both competitive intelligence analysis and supply chain management, selects four areas of supply chain management to establish competitive intelligence analysis models including supply chain optimization, supply chain competitor identification, supply chain partnership management and supply chain risk which are supposed most imperative for the support of competitive intelligence analysis. 　　　Based on introducing benchmarking method and supply chain optimization problem,establishes of supply chain optimization model based on benchmarking method which includes determining the content of the supply chain benchmarking, supply chain intelligence gathering and analysis, formulation optimization and evaluation of results. Lenovo's supply chain is analyzed as an case. 　　　Based on introducing BP neural network and putting forward supply chain competitors identification problem,establishes supply chain competitors identification model based on BP neural network method which includes the establishment of index system of supply chain competitors identification, determining the structure of the BP neural network, establishing the model of supply chain competitor identification . The model is realized by using MATLAB. 　　　Based on decision tree method and supply chain partner relationship management,establishes supply chain partner relationship analysis model based on decision tree method,including three types: supply chain partner selection model, evaluation model and the loss early warning model.The process of the establishment of every model consists of target attribute and decision attribute selection, data preparation, data preprocessing and decision tree formation. Shows the actual formation process of decision tree by using SPSS. 　　　Based on introducing scenario analysis method and supply chain risk problem,establishes supply chain risk analysis model based on scenario analysis method which includes supply chain risk identification of key factors affecting, supply chain risk scenarios description, supply chain risk sensitivity analysis and supply chain risk scenario analysis. The event of “hormone” of Synutra supply chain is analyzed as an case. 　　　Innovations of this research is in the following: 　　　（1）The establishment of the supply chain optimization model based on benchmarking method. By combining the respective features of benchmarking method and supply chain optimization ,constructed accordingly competitive intelligence analysis model. Finds a broader stage for classic benchmarking method and enriches the research contents of supply chain optimization. 　　　（2）The establishment of supply chain competitor identification model based on BP neural network method. By combining the respective features of BP neural network method and supply chain competitor identification ,constructed accordingly competitive intelligence analysis model. First proposes the concept of supply chain competitor and points out that the problem of its identification,and further constructs supply chain competitors identification model using BP neural network method. 　　　（3）The establishment of supply chain partner relationship analysis model based on decision tree method. Applys decision tree method which is successful in customer relationship analysis to supply chain partner relationship analysis. By combining the respective features of decision tree method and supply chain partner relationship analysis ,constructed accordingly competitive intelligence analysis model. 　　　（4）The establishment of supply chain risk analysis model based on scenario analysis method. By combining the respective features of scenario analysis method and supply chain risk analysis ,constructed accordingly competitive intelligence analysis model.
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