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论文编号：	5317
作者编号：	2120112562
上传时间：	2013/6/6 13:54:52
中文题目：	房地产调控下对目标企业估值研究—以A集团为例
英文题目：	Research On Valuation of Target Enterprise —A Case Study Under The Real Estate Regulation
指导老师：	齐岳
中文关键字：	关键词：调控政策；房地产企业；企业估值；估值模型
英文关键字：	control policies, real estate companies,business valuation,valuation model
中文摘要：	近年来，地产行业因房价的高企以及关系民生，逐渐成为国内热议行业。针对地产行业公司价值评估在资本市场业内也逐渐成为研究的重点。随着房价高企，中央和各省市针对情况作出了大量调控政策，通过地产政策和货币政策稳定房价，这是非完全自由市场行为，却对房产市场影响较大。因此，在地产企业价值评估中，应该将此因素纳入其中。本文作于此背景下，目的在于将地产调控政策因素引入地产企业价值评估模型中，从而使模型得到的结果更加符合实际情况。本文作者供职于一家筹备上市企业，因此就此契机充分利用资源、结合主要估值方法对本企业做出估值，并在其中按上文所述尝试加入地产调控因素，对估值区间进行调整，以期为此方面后续研究工作打下基础。通过两种不同方式下对目前企业进行估值，得到的结果差异较大。NAV法的结果小于PE法得到的估值。究其原因，一来NAV法没有计入企业后续的增长能力，这为后续研究指明了相应方向；另一方面，PV法随每年业绩波动较大，以项目为基本单位的房地产行业，不能简单以某年的利润作为重要说服力的估值基础。另外，在调控政策因素考虑上，在PE法估值中使用了标杆企业类比的方法，配合各主要指标地产行业各家公司主要情况对比确定区间的方法，在量化方面只能得到大概区间，未对净利润的产生进行追溯细致分析。在NAV法估值中，使用对比方式分别对负债、未来现金流及折现率进行区间的确定，进而综合而保守的估计。因为是个案比对分析，考虑到标杆企业佳兆业集团也有个性化的优势及问题，故而此对比分析过程有失真的可能。本文有如上缺陷，故而在结果方面，不能达到完全精确。眼下房产市场前景不明，地产调控政策在短期内预计将持续，本文作于此背景下，主要给出了将地产调控政策应用于估值过程的基本思路及方向，尝试使用各个角度采用多重区间综合考虑的方式给予一定误差内的量化区间，体现了其意义。
英文摘要：	In recent years,due to the high prices,the real estate industryhas been gradually becoming a domestic hot topics among people. According to this, real estate companies’ valuation has gradually become more important in the capital market. To ease the situation,governmenthas made a lot of regulatory policy, including the real estate policy and monetary policy to stabilize real estate prices,which is not behavior in completely free market, but has significance impact on real estate market. Therefore, in the real estate enterprise valuation,this factor should be considered. In this paperis written to show how real estate regulation policy influencevaluation model for real estate enterprise,and therefore the results of the model is more consistent with the actual situation. Author of this paper works at a preparatory listed enterprise,therefore has opportunity to make full use of resources.By using main valuation methods,makes the valuation to this enterprise and join the real estate regulation factors to adjust the valuation range, makes foundation for coming research in this industry. Through the two different methods of current business valuation,large differences business between them. The result of NAV method is less than PE method. There are two reasons: firstly,NAV method not accounting for the ability for the company growing,which points out the direction for future research; Secondly, the PV method using the annual profit,which fluctuations a lot between years,as the projects are the basic unit in the real estate industry,so using simply a year’s profit as the valuation’s basis important data cannot be persuasive enough. In addition,in process of considering the policy factors,author uses comparision of each company each main index of the real estate industry to determine the interval,and makes deep comparision analysis for a benchmarking enterprise.As to quantitative terms,can only get about interval,not on the net profit generated in trace analysis.In the NAV method of valuation,author uses contrast methods to analysis debt, the future cash flow and discount rate respectively to determint valuation interval.As is the case analysis, taking into account the benchmarking enterprise also has its own advantages and problems,therefore this comparative analysis process can be distortion in some way. Owing to deficiencies,result can hardly be fully accurate. The current real estate market foreground is unidentified,and real estate control policy is expected to continue in the short term,so this paper being written in this background, has its own significance
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