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论文编号：	5310
作者编号：	2220110460
上传时间：	2013/6/6 11:37:22
中文题目：	青州卷烟厂卷包车间在线技改项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on online technical transformation project risk management of Qingzhou cigarette factory workshop volume
指导老师：	李季
中文关键字：	青州卷烟厂，在线技改，项目风险
英文关键字：	Qingzhou cigarette factory, online technical transformation, project risk
中文摘要：	当前卷烟企业技术改造进入了一个信息化和工业化高度融合的新阶段，卷烟企业受各种社会环境因素影响，企业异地技改项目数量普遍降低，在线技改项目数量普遍增多；随着项目管理知识普及和推广，行业多渠道培养了大量的项目管理知识人才，项目管理的相关知识、工具、方法等不断应用到企业各个技术改造项目中，实现了项目成功和管理经验积累，带来了行业项目管理总体水平提升。本文结合青州卷烟厂卷包车间在线技改项目，开展了该项目的组织结构、时间进度、搬迁技术、安全管理四维度风险管理研究。 首先，结合研究体系对国外、国内和烟草卷烟企业的风险管理的沿革和现状进行了阐述，对项目管理和项目风险管理的有关理论和工具、方法进行介绍。 其次，对卷烟企业在线技改项目风险特性进行了研究，对所研究的项目特点进行了分析，依据头脑风暴法和风险识别流程，结合工作结构分解表，形成了组织结构、搬迁技术、时间进度和安全管理四大类风险研究清单；利用损失期望值法、帕累托图、D=LEC法等项目管理工具，给出了卷包车间在线技改项目风险度量清单，对风险进行了分级描述；对组织结构风险评价，项目组围绕各个工作任务，给出了风险应对清单。 再次，对组织结构风险通过设立各个专业组，明确职责，采取123工作法，目标管理机制和专业组组长遴选机制，专业授权和合同管理机制，进行应对与监控；对时间进度风险是通过完工概率计算，给出了各个阶段中预计的可变时间控制，在实施中通过监控和执行可变时间解决了该类风险；对搬迁技术风险，给出了技术设计和备选配套工具的风险应对措施，通过实施监控得以解决；对安全管理风险给出了安全检查、安全标识、教育培训、合同约定、安全处置方案和安全责任状等多个应对措施，通过监控各措施落实，确保了安全风险可控，整个项目顺利完工。 最后，鉴于本文作者在项目中的作用和所掌握知识有限，本文最后给出了下一步研究方向：建议对卷烟企业在线技改项目中合同的履约风险进行研究，以期提高合同履约水平，防止第三方责任导致在线技改项目出现，诸如工期、范围、质量、进度、安全、成本等不可控风险，从而提高在线技改项目的风险管理能力。
英文摘要：	The technical transformation of tobacco enterprises has come into a new stage owing to the high combination of industrialization and informatization. Affected by various social factors, the number of enterprises in remote technological transformation projects is generally reduced while the number of online projects is generally increased. Along with the popularization and promotion of project management knowledge, a large number of project management talents have been cultivated and knowledge, tools, methods related to project management have been applied in each technological transformation project, which have brought about the project success and build-up of management experiences as well as enhanced the overall level of project management of the industry. This paper, combined with the online technical transformation project in the wrapping workshop of Qingzhou Cigarette Factory, has carried out researches on the four dimensions of risk management: organization structure, time schedule, removal technology, and safety management of the project. First of all, combined with the research system, the history and current situation of risk management of domestic and foreign tobacco enterprises are described, and meanwhile the related theories and tools, methods of project management and project risk management are introduced. Secondly, the risk characteristics of online transformation projects of cigarette enterprises are studied based on the analysis of the project characteristics. The research, on the basis of brainstorming and the risk identification process, combined with the work breakdown structure, shows a clear statement of four kinds of risk investigation lists: the organization structure, the removal technology, time schedule, and safety management. Taking advantage of loss expectation method, Pareto map, D=LEC method for project management tools, it provides with a detailed risk measure list of the online project in the wrapping workshop with a hierarchical description, and as to the evaluation of the organizational structural risk, the project group puts forward the risk response list by focusing on various tasks. Once again, the detailed countermeasures and solutions to these four risks are put forward in this paper. Solutions to the organization structural risk are: establishing each professional group with clear responsibilities, and taking 123 working method, target management system and professional team selection mechanism, professional licensing and contract management system; those to the schedule risk are: calculating the probability of completion, providing variable time expected to control each stage and monitoring and implementing variable time in the process of implementation. As to the removal technical risk, countermeasures like technical design and alternative tools are provided by putting monitoring into effect; and countermeasures to safety management risk are: security checks, security identification, education and training, the contract, security solutions and security responsibility such measures, through the implementation of various monitoring measures to ensuring the safety of the controllable risk and the success of the project completion. Finally, in consideration of the role of the author in the project and the knowledge he has mastered, he suggests the following research direction at the end of this paper: to further study the contract compliance risks of online project of cigarette enterprises, in order to improve the level of contract performance, prevent uncontrollable online project risks caused by the third party liability, such as time, scope, quality, schedule, safety and cost, so as to improve the comprehensive risk management ability of online technical transformation project.
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