联系我们

论文查询结果	返回搜索

论文编号：	5247
作者编号：	2220110385
上传时间：	2013/6/5 16:57:19
中文题目：	合同能源管理项目投资方的风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Risk Management of Investment of the Contract Energy Management Project
指导老师：	侯文华 教授
中文关键字：	合同能源管理;投资风险; 节能基准;风险管理;风险度量模型
英文关键字：	Energy Performance Contracting; Risk of Investment;
中文摘要：	全球变暖是引发全球性气候异常的根源，而造成全球持续升温的元凶是CO2—主要温室气体。人类对全球气候变暖负有不可推卸的责任。发展低碳经济，减少化石燃料的燃烧使用，减少CO2的排放已成为各国对改善全球气候变暖的共识。但由于环境保护法律不健全， 能源政策、税收政策不配套等原因，在经济利益的驱使下，全球节能减排发展不均衡。 世界各国政府在应对全球变暖认识上，认为合同能源管理是推动节能减排工作的有效方式。合同能源管理项目是一种新型的市场化节能机制。其实质就是以减少的能源费用来支付节能项目投资的节能业务方式。这种节能投资方式允许客户用未来的节能收益为工厂和设备升级，以降低目前的运行成本；或者节能服务公司以承诺节能项目的节能效益、或承包整体能源费用的方式为客户提供节能服务。 合同能源管理模式1997年首次登陆中国，在北京、山东、辽宁成立了三家示范性合同能源管理公司，经过几年的运作，取得了很好的经济效益和环境效益。由于过去的二十几 年里，企业多注重扩大规模生产，忽视了 企业节能工作，节能人才培养上也亏欠很多，面对大规 模的节能改造任务，用能企业无能力自己改造，短时间培养节能 人才也不现实，采取合同能源管理模式进行企业节能改造是企业首选。另外由于能源价格不断上 涨造成企业能源成本持续上升，也提高了用能企业开展合同能源管理的积极性。 我国现有法律、法规主要是在行业推动合同能源管理方面、合同能源管理政府补贴方面立法，是对合同能源管理进行推广模式立法。现行节能环保方面的法律约束力较弱，缺乏强制性的规定以及经济激励手段促使企业实施节能改造，对能源利用效率低的企业或行为没有明显的惩罚措施。对节能行为缺乏明显的激励政策，特别是没有与节能的环保效益挂钩。除部分高耗能企业从节省成本出发对节能有一定认识外，大多数企业因为能源占产品成本不是太高，没有节能的积极性。 2005年以来，国内以合同能源管理项目为主的节能服务公司雨后春笋般涌现，但同时由于国内相对于国外,相关政策、市场机制、金融配套体制不完善，企业信誉机制尚未建立。节能服务公司在合同能源管理项目中存在着诸多投资风险，特别是一些中小节能服务公司，由于它们在组织结构上、业务流程上、技术与经验方面的欠缺，面临着诸多风险，这些风险主要表现为诚信风险、经济纠纷风险与项目不能达到预期的节能效益等风险。 法律、法规体系完善不是一朝一夕能完成，特别是在全球经济不景气的大环境下，与经济相关的法律、法规的改革都需慎之又慎，牵一发而动全身。因此与合同能源管理相关的政策法规也不可能短期内悉数进行改革。合同能源管理的政策性风险在较长时间内仍会存在，合同能源管理的政策环境风险与信用环境风险不会有根本性的改善，降低合同能源管理投资风险的重点是增强相应风险的防范能力与应对措施升级。 目前国内对合同能源管理项目风险管理方面的研究主要聚焦在诚信方面风险防范、节能量风险防范等外因风险方向上，少有从节能服务公司组织、流程与程序等内因风险对合同能源管理项目进行风险进行研究。 本论文通过对合同能源管理项目的流程及业务程序分析，对合同能源管理项目业务的风险因素进行识别分析，对其外部政治环境风险、自身组织管理风险、财务风险、节能风险和效益分享风险等诸多风险进行逐一分析。 外部政治环境风险包括宏观政策法规变化、节能政策法规不健全、行业规范不完备、利率波动、通货膨胀等因素；自身组织管理风险包括人才储备不足、信息不通畅、设计施工失误、分包商素质、工作质量及诚信等因素；财务风险包括融资方式单一、金融机构融资较难、主要设备生产成本变化等因素；节能风险包括节能技术风险、节能设备质量风险、节能量达不到预期风险等因素；效益分享风险包括客户缺乏诚信、客户财务状况恶化、客户生产萎缩、能源价格变化等因素。 并对合同能源管理项目风险的特征深入分析，合同能源管理项目风险分配不均衡性，在整个项目中节能服务公司几乎担负着项目的所有风险。用能企业担负的风险极其微小；不同类型的节能服务公司面临的风险特点不同，技术依托型节能服务公司需要保持持续的技术创新能力，同时要兼顾解决融资问题；资金依托型节能服务公司需要在选择节能技术、节能产品和节能项目设计时控制风险；市场依托型节能服务公司需控制来自技术合作者的风险；不同的类型的项目具有不同的风险特征，不同的行业类型、技术类型、规模、效益分享方式风险不同；同一项目在不同的阶段、不同的时间点上的风险特征不同，项目规划、评估阶段的主要风险是节能诊断风险与节能量预测风险，方案设计、采购阶段主要是技术风险和资金风险，施工阶段主要是完工风险、工程质量风险，验收阶段主要是试运行风险与节能量风险，运营阶段主要是计量监测风险与诚信风险等；另外合同能源管理项目的风险具有复杂性特征、风险可变性等特征。 结合我国合同能源管理项目风险管控中存在的主要问题组织风险意识差、对合同能源管理项目中的风险识别不够、对合同能源管理项目中的风险度量不准，及在风险应对环节缺乏科学风险应对策略体系。针对合同能源管理项目风险管控中的问题，以系统分析的方法论证以风险管理型组织为基础, 全面的风险识别、数据库为模型的风险度量、合理的风险应对策略、以风险征兆为参照的风险监控的合同能源管理风险管控的可行性；采用案例对比分析法，通过正反两方面的案例的对比分析验证合同能源管理风险管控的有效性。 在短期内不能有效地改善合同能源管理项目环境（配套法规、合作诚信、市场机制）的情形下，给出提升节能服务公司内部风险应对能力的建议对节能服务公司业务发展更具现实意义。
英文摘要：	Global warming is the root of causing global climate anomalies, continuing the global warming caused by CO2 - the main greenhouse gas. Human beings have unshirkable responsibility for global warming. Developing low carbon economy, to reduce burning of fossil fuels , To reduce CO2 emissions has become the consensus of countries to improve the global climate warming. But due to the environmental protection law is not sound, the energy policy and the tax policy does not support completely each other, and driven of the economic interests , make the global uneven development of energy saving and emission reduction. Governments around the world, in dealing with the global warming to know that the Energy Performance Contractingt is an effective way to promote energy conservation and emissions reduction work. Energy Performance Contractingt project is a new kind of market-oriented energy-saving mechanism. Its essence is to reduce the energy costs to pay for the project investment. It allows customers to use energy saving benefits of the future pay for the investmen of equipment upgrades for the factory, in order to reduce the operation cost; Or energy service company commitment to the energy saving benefit for an energy-saving project, or contract the overall energy costs to provide energy saving services. Energy Performance Contractingt mode appeared in China for the first time in 1997, in Beijing, shandong, liaoning province three model Energy Performance Contractingt company established , after several years ,the companies achieved good economic and environmental benefits. In china at the past 20 years, the enterprise pay more attention to scale up production and ignore the energy conservation, the talents of the energy conservation are absent, for the large scale energy saving renovation task, energy-using enterprise has no ability to do, it is also not realistic energy-saving talent cultivation in the short time , Energy Performance Contractingt mode for enterprises energy conservation is preferred. Due to the energy prices rising , the energy costs of the companies rise , also increased with the enthusiasm of enterprises to carry out the Energy Performance Contractingt. China's existing laws and regulations is mainly to promote Energy Performance Contract carrying out, but the legislation Cannot guarantee reasonable distribution of the interests of both parties of the Energy Performance Contract project. Current the legally binding of energy conservation and environmental protection aspects of is weak, there aren’t enough mandatory regulations and economic incentives to push the enterprises to implement energy-saving project, no significant penalties are taken the enterprises for low efficiency of energy utilization. Lack of incentiving legally for energy conservation, Except some energy-intensive enterprises known energy saving is important, because the energy cost is high range of the total cost. Since 2005, lots of ESCO for the Energy Performance Contract project had appeared in china. as domestic relative to foreign countries, relevant policies, imperfect market mechanism, financial supporting system, enterprise reputation mechanism had not been established yet. There are many investment risks for the ESCO in Energy Performance Contract projects, especially some small and medium-sized ESCO, because there are flaws in organization structure, business processes,and lacks of the technology and the experience,, these risks are mainly the credit risk, the risk of economic disputes ,desired energy-saving benefit risk, etc. The reform of the laws system cannot achieve in the short time. especially under the global economic recession, the reform of the economic laws must be wary. So it is impossible in the short term that the policies and regulations related the Energy Performance Contract all reforms. Policy risks of the Energy Performance Contract will still haven been existing in the longer term, the policy environment risk and the credit risk there will be no fundamental improvement, To enhance the corresponding risk prevention capacity and measures to upgrade ,it maybe reduce the risk of investment of the Energy Performance Contract. At present the risk management research of the Energy Performance Contract mainly focus on the credit risk prevention, the risk of energy saving, and other external cause risks in the domestic, few researchers Concern the organization, processes and procedures such as internal cause of the ESCO. This thesis goes on through to the Energy Performance Contract project process and business process analysis, to the business analysis, to identify all risk factors of the Energy Performance Contract ,and the external political environment risk, organization and management risk, financial risk, energy saving and benefit sharing risk and other risks analyzed one by one. Risk of external political environment include the risk of macro change of policies and regulations, the risk of the energy conservation policies and regulations is not sound, the risk of incomplete industry norms, the risk of inflation, the risk of interest rate fluctuation; Organization and management risk including insufficient of talent reserve, obstructed information, errors in design and construction, quality of the subcontractor, quality of the work and integrity; Financial risks including the single financing, difficultly financing, changes in the cost of major equipment factors; The risk of Energy-saving including the risk of energy saving technology、the risk of energy-saving equipment quality, the risk of short of expected risk factors; Benefit sharing risks including lack of integrity with customer, customer financial conditions deteriorate, shrinking production, energy price changes and other factors. And to analysis the characteristics of risks of Energy Performance Contract, project risk distribution imbalance, ESCO almost bears all the risks for the project oneself throughout the project. Energy-using enterprises bear the risk of extremely small; Different types ESCO face the different characteristics risk, technology-based ESCO need to keep continuous technology innovation ability, at the same time, to the financing problem; Capital-based ESCO need to choose energy-saving technologies and energy-saving products and energy-saving control risk when project design; Market –based ESCO need to control risk from technical partners;Different types of projects have different risk characteristics, different industry type, technique type, scale, benefit sharing way risk is different; The same project in different stages, different risk characteristics at different time point, project planning, the main risk of the assessment phase is energy-saving diagnosis and risk of forecast energy-saving, project design, procurement stage mainly technology risk and capital risk, construction stage is completion risk, engineering quality risk, risk acceptance stage mainly commissioning section and energy risk, operation stage is main measuring risk and credit risk monitoring, etc.; Another the risk of Energy Performance Contract project has the characteristics of complexity, and variability etc. The main problems of the risk mangerment of Energy Performance Contract is lack of organization risk consciousness, the lack of identification to risk factor, lack of risk measure, and lack of scientific risk coping strategies system. However, this thesis apts to adopt system analysis into the research with a microscopic perspective，If a risk management system contains a organization into risk management, risk identification with the whole process, risk measurement model from database, correct countermeasures of risks，risk monitoring with useful risk warning,it can control its risk. Then it is ture with case analysis. Cannot effectively improve the contract energy management project environment in the short term ( market mechanism , related regulations, integrity) , how to improve Energy Management Company’s internal risk response ability ，the suggestion is more helpful for Energy Management Company’s business development.
查看全文：	预览  下载(下载需要进行登录)