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论文编号：	5224
作者编号：	2220110409
上传时间：	2013/6/5 14:45:26
中文题目：	天津宝坻老年公寓项目的财务与风险评估研究
英文题目：	A Research on Financial and risk assessment Study of elderly apartment of Tianjin Baodi District
指导老师：	戚安邦
中文关键字：	老年公寓，项目评估，评估模型
英文关键字：	Elderly Apartment; Project Evaluation; The Model of Evaluation
中文摘要：	长期以来，人口老龄化问题造成的社会压力日益增大，这个全球性危机亦对我国政治、经济、社会都造成深刻影响，根据十八大报告中提出的，要积极应对人口的老龄化，竭力发展老年服务事业及产业。本文研究项目即是承载社会责任的养老地产项目。 养老地产的巨大商机预示着这一夕阳产业正在成为蒸蒸日上的朝阳产业，在给企业带来巨大市场机遇的同时，由于目前尚缺乏配套政策和监管体系，行业标准不健全，开发过程中在融资、运营、收益等方面存在诸多不确定因素。本企业在房地产开发评估方面有其一套系统的方法与程序，但针对养老地产这种独特的项目开发的评估方法及评估模型尚存不足，必然难以有效控制项目开发活动的风险。 本文以天津宝坻老年公寓项目为案例，就本企业养老建设市场化及养老道路产业化进行论证研究，作者在项目评估理论与方法的研究文献的基础上，结合本企业在投资运作该项目上的独特性，构建出顺应社会要求、符合市场规律、适合企业发展的养老产业项目评估模型，模型的建立运用了财务评估法、层次分析法和专家调查法中的德尔斐法等理论。本文运用的评估方法具有较强的推广性，除老年公寓项目外，还可以运用于适合本企业房地产开发及其他主业项目投资风险分析与决策，对于本企业项目开发评估工作具有实际的指导意义。
英文摘要：	For a long time, the social pressures caused by population aging are increasing. The global crisis has also caused a profound impact on politics, economy and society of China. The report of 18th CPC National Congress proposed to actively cope with the aging of the population and vigorously develop aging service industry. This study projects is the real estate project bearing social pension responsibility. Enormous opportunities of the pension real estate indicate that the sunset industry is becoming flourishing sunrise industry. At the same time while bringing tremendous market opportunities to the enterprise, due to the current lack of supporting policy and regulatory system as well as industry standard is not perfect, there are many uncertainties in terms of finance, operations and revenue in the process of development. The enterprise has its own systematic method and procedure in the field of real estate development assessment. However, the assessment method and assessment model for the unique development project of pension real estate is insufficient. It is inevitably difficult to effectively control the risk of project development activities. This thesis takes Tianjin Baodi elderly apartment project as a case, it demonstrates the research pension construction market of the enterprises and pension road industrialization, On the basis of the study of the literature of theory and methods of project evaluation, combined with the unique nature of the enterprise on the investment operations of the project, the author builds an evaluation model of pension industry project which in line with the social requirements, adapting to the laws of the market and suitable for enterprise development; The theories of economic (financial) evaluation method, the analytic hierarchy process and Delphi method in expert investigation method are used in the establishment of the model. The assessment method of this paper has a strong promotion. In addition to the elderly apartment project, it can also be used in the enterprise for the development of real estate and other industry project investment risk analysis and decision making. It has practical significance for the enterprise project development assessment.
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