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论文编号：	5168
作者编号：	2120112942
上传时间：	2013/6/4 7:52:50
中文题目：	唐津高速公路扩建工程项目交通量预测应用研究
英文题目：	Research on the Traffic Volume Forecasting Application of Construction of Tang-Jin Expressway Extension Project
指导老师：	李勇建
中文关键字：	四阶段法，高速公路，扩建，交通量预测
英文关键字：	Four-stage method Expressway Extension Traffic volume forecasting
中文摘要：	随着我国社会和经济的快速发展，国家对交通运输业的重视程度也与日俱增。在国家多方面政策的支持下，天津快速且高质量地完成了多高速公路的修建工作。然而自1988年我国第一条高速公路开通后以来已经有多条道路陆续达到了或超过了当初的设计使用寿命。天津市也有多条高速公路相继达到了使用寿命，服务水平不断降低，道路交通事故频发，其中唐津高速公路是其中的典型代表，该项目的建设经验，对天津市后续的高速公路改扩建项目非常重要。交通量预测是高速公路建设企业充分、合理地分配、利用有限资源进行项目建设，作出正确投资决策，尽快回收建设成本并获得经济、社会效益的关键。因此科学地预测交通量，能够准确地掌握未来交通量的变化趋势。本文结合唐津高速公路改扩建的实例，通过分析、研究、挖掘其历史运营管理数据，研究出适合该项目特点的交通量预测方法，即在四阶段法的基础上并结合历史规律来进行交通量预测，并对预测结果进行了敏感性分析、经济评价。经过研究发现，高速公路改扩建工程项目更加适合应用成熟的四阶段法进行交通量预测。因此，本文在四阶段发的基础上，针对改扩建项目进行了创新。从时间分布、空间分布、车型比例、客货比例等多个角度对该项目的历史数据进行分析、处理并引入到四阶段法的预测过程中，提高了四阶段法的预测精度。
英文摘要：	With the rapid economic and social development of China, Our country pays more and more attention to the transportation industry. In support of various national policies, Tianjin has finished quickly and high-quality highway construction work. However, since 1988 a number of roads have gradually reached or exceed the original design life. In Tianjin several expressways have reached a service life and Service levels continue to lower and road traffic accidents often occur, Jin-tang Expressway is one of the typical, experience in the construction of the project is very important highway expansion project in Tianjin follow-up. Traffic forecasting of highway is key to fully rational use of resources to construction projects and to make the right investment decisions and to recovery of construction costs as soon as possible and to get the economic and social benefits. Through analyzing, researching, mining its historical operations management data, this article developed traffic forecasts for the characteristics of the project, and apply Four-stage method to forecast traffic volume and study the prediction results for sensitivity analysis and economic evaluation. After the study found, Highway renovation and expansion project is more suitable for the application of mature four-stage method for traffic forecasting. Therefore, this article makes innovation for the expansion project on the basis of the four-stage. From time distribution, spatial distribution, models ratio, the proportion of passenger and freight multiple angles, this article analyzes and deal with historical data, which are introduced to the four-stage method of forecasting process to improve the prediction accuracy of the four-stage method.
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