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论文编号：	490
作者编号：	2120062357
上传时间：	2009/1/4 8:59:01
中文题目：	丹佛斯公司供应链牛鞭效应成因分
英文题目：	Cause Analysis and Countermeas
指导老师：	焦媛媛 副教授
中文关键字：	丹佛斯公司 供应链 牛鞭效应
英文关键字：	Danfoss Ltd.　Supply Chain Man
中文摘要：	21世纪，全球经济一体化的步伐在加快，竞争更为激烈，竞争的形式已从企业之间的竞争转变为供应链之间的竞争。供应链管理的目的是追求整条链的成本最小和效率最高，有效的供应链管理是以市场需求为驱动力，从而协调供给与需求之间的关系。因此供应链管理越来越成为企业获取竞争优势的重要手段，供应链管理的问题不断升温，越来越成为研究者研究的焦点问题。但是在实施供应链管理的过程中，常常存在着如预测不准确，需求不明确，供给不稳定，企业间合作性与协调性差，生产与运输作业不均衡，库存居高不下，成本过高等现象。引起这些问题的根源有许多，其中重要原因之一便是牛鞭效应。它是供应链管理实施过程中出现的一个重要问题，严重的影响着供应链的运作效率。 丹佛斯公司，作为一家大型跨国集团公司，其生产工厂、销售公司遍布世界各地，供应链体系极为复杂，供应链管理的工作面临着巨大挑战。其供应链上不可避免的存在着严重的牛鞭效应，并对供应链造成了恶劣的影响，库存积压、运费增加、客户需求不能及时满足等问题日益严重。丹佛斯最重要的客户之一，在对各方面综合评审后，已经将丹佛斯列入最差供应商之列，致使丹佛斯丢失了重要项目，其中，物流方面的过长前置期和差强人意的交货可靠率，是引发客户不满的重要因素。这迫使丹佛斯急于寻求供应链管理方面的突破，以使企业在激烈的竞争中赢得优势。 由于以上原因，本文针对丹佛斯供应链上的牛鞭效应进行了研究，对其牛鞭效应的存在性和成因进行了定性和定量分析，并提出各项措施，及相匹配的制度保障，其中不仅关注理论因素，更处处注意丹佛斯的实际，所提方法措施皆为适合丹佛斯现况极具可操作性的措施，对丹佛斯的供应链改善有着重要意义。同时，对广大具有相似情况的制造业企业，也具有一定的参考意义。 本文首先回顾了关于供应链及牛鞭效应的基础理论，包括供应链管理、牛鞭效应的定义、成因及弱化方法，并对经典的啤酒游戏进行了研究，用以勾勒出牛鞭效应的整个产生过程及影响。然后，利用实际数据证明了丹佛斯三级供应链上存在着严重的牛鞭效应，并结合丹佛斯供应链的特性，分析了丹佛斯供应链上牛鞭效应的成因，包括需求预测不准确、信息共享程度低、过长的前置期以及批量订购等原因。最后，针对这些原因，提出了一系列适合丹佛斯现状的弱化牛鞭效应的方案，这其中提出了各种具体方法与工具，包括采用加入季节指数的需求预测方法，利用修正的EOQ模型计算安全库存，缩短检视周期及发货周期，加强信息共享，签订服务水准协议等。尤其经过对服务水准协议的重点分析，验证了这一工具通过对采购行为的规范和限制，从而有效地抑制牛鞭效应，对供应链整体优化起到了积极作用。另外，本文提出改进方法的顺利推行需要一系列制度、监督及培训机制的保证，应建立双向信息沟通的平台，设置专门机构配以相应的组织架构，并开展充分而有效的培训，以保证新方法的贯彻执行。 本文所使用的研究方法包括个案研究法、文献研究法、定量分析法及定性分析法。参考文献的范围领域，涉及供应链中牛鞭效应概念与模型、相关控制理论、库存控制相关理论、存货管理模型等，这其中包括书籍及经典教材，如马士华等人的《供应链管理》，更大量参考了近几年期刊杂志中的相关文章，以了解最新研究方向。另外，为了找到合适的预测方法，作者还阅读了统计、预测的相关文献资料，如郭秀英等的《季节性波动时间序列预测的分解季节指数法》等，并从中汲取了相关研究方法，为论文的数据分析展开提供了宝贵思路。 本文力图在理论的实际应用方法上有所创新突破，不仅关注了减弱牛鞭效应的理论因素，更注重现实的可操作性。文中对供应商管理库存及联合预测、计划和补货方法的在丹佛斯及类似制造业企业中的实际应用局限性进行了分析，并针对公司当前的状况，因地制宜的提出各项改进的措施，包括采用简便易行的季节指数预测法，利用修正的EOQ模型计算安全库存，以及与供应商、客户分别签订服务水准协议等方法。另外，着重介绍了为保障各项措施的顺利实施而必需的各项体系、机制的建立，这些将会对企业在实际操作中的推广执行具有现实意义。 本文的不足之处在于，本文的研究的供应链，是基于生命周期较长、且处于发展成熟期的产品，因此其结果并不具有普遍性；本文的研究基于相对稳定的历史数据，因而不适用于无历史数据可用的新产品，或以项目形式销售因此无法依赖历史数据的产品；由于可用历史数据有限，无法对长期历史数据进行考量，因此数据分析结果准确性有待进一步考察；本文理论研究部分对于当前前沿理论的阐述总结有所欠缺，亦缺乏对前沿理论的实际应用研究，这也将成为未来研究的重要方向之一。 未来研究应致力于进一步结合前沿理论，如多分销中心供应链模型及需求信息模型等，对牛鞭效应的机理进行数量化分析；并需进一步探讨如何与供应商建立稳健的战略协作伙伴关系，从而结合VMI和CPFR等理论模型，继续深入发掘适于丹佛斯及相似制造企业的信息沟通及共享的方法，使信息流更加顺畅，供应链内信息更加公开；以及如何建立相应的激励机制及企业文化氛围，保障各项变革措施的实施执行，以及供应链上各方关系稳固。
英文摘要：	In the 21st century, the globalization and fast growing of economy have intensified competition in each element of industry. The focus of competition has shifted from enterprises to their supply chain. The purpose of Supply Chain Management is to minimize cost and to maximize efficiency, and the effective SCM is driven by market demand in order to reconcile demand and supply. Therefore, SCM has become one of the most important methods to get predominance in competition, and it draws more and more attention from both industries and academic field. However, there are so many problems exist in SCM, such as forecast error, ambiguous demand, unstable supply, poor collaboration and coordination across enterprises, unbalanced production and transportation, continuously high inventory and cost etc. There are many causes for these problems, and one most important cause is the bullwhip effect, which has become a serious matter in SCM and impact the efficiency of supply chain operation a lot. Danfoss Group, as a multinational corporation with factories and sale companies spreading all over the world, has its unique complex supply chain system which generates great challenge to SCM. Beyond all doubt, serious Bullwhip Effect exists in its supply chain, and causes a series of sequent like over stock, high air freight cost, low delivery performance to customers, etc. These problems is getting more and more severely and making the supply chain out of balance. After overall audit and evaluation, one of Danfoss’ key customers has list Danfoss as worst supplier, and made contract with other supplier for high value project. Among all the reasons, long lead time and low delivery performance are the key factors that make customer unsatisfied. Danfoss has to make breakthrough in its SCM to win back the advantages in competition. Based on these reasons, the paper analyzes the cause factors and effects of Bullwhip effect on Danfoss’ supply chain, with combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Then it brings forward a series of solution, including new methods and tools, with proper system and mechanism as well. It focuses not only on theoretical factors, but also on feasible practices. All the solutions are suitable for Danfoss situation and practicable, which has significance on Danfoss SCM improvement. Meanwhile, these research results can be useful for Danfoss and other supply chains with the same problem as well. Firstly, it introduces basic theories, including the definition of SCM and Bullwhip Effect, its causes and effects, etc, and cites the classic Beer Game to give full picture of Bullwhip Effect. Then, it analyzes actual data in Danfoss’ three-level supply chain to prove the existence of Bullwhip Effect. Meanwhile, by depicting the unique characters of Danfoss’ supply chain, it explains the causes of the Bullwhip Effect on the supply chain, including the high forecast errors, lack of information sharing, batch ordering and long lead time etc. Against to these causes, the thesis provides a series of solution. On one hand, the paper brings detail methods and tools as solution, including forecasting method of seasonal index, the way to calculate safety stock with adjusted EOQ model, shorten lead time, enhance information sharing and signing service level agreement. Especially through the analysis on SLA, the effectiveness of this tool has been proved. On the other hand, the paper also brings forward the mechanism and system that make sure all new methods and tools can be exactly carried out, including two-way communication platform, suitable organization and enough training. The research method using in this paper are case study method, literature study, quantitative and qualitative analyzing method. The fields of literature, involved Bullwhip Effect model in SCM, and relative control theory, inventory controlling theory and stock management model. Literature type includes books and classic teaching materials, like Supply Chain Management by Ma Shihua etc, and thesis on magazines and journals, which help on getting latest research results. In addition, to find suitable forecast method, author also referred to thesis of statistic and forecast, like Decomposed seasonal index method on forecast of seasonal fluctuate time series by Guo Xiuying etc, and get helpful research method from them, which gives direction on the following research. The thesis tries to make breakthrough on the practical application of theory. It focused not only on the theories and mathematical method, but also on the feasibility in practice. It analyzes the limitation of applying VMI and CPFR in Danfoss and other manufacturing enterprises with same situation, and brings measures that suits for them, including new tools and proper system. All these practicable measures will be of great help in daily operation. The shortages of this thesis include the following. First, all study is based on developed products on long life cycle supply chain, so the results don’t have universality. Second, study uses stable and reliable history data, therefore the way of research is not suitable for those new products without history data, or those project products whose history data is not reliable. Third, the summarizing on latest theory is insufficient, and need to do more study on the frontier theories. Future study should focus on frontier theories, like multi distributors supply chain model and information demand model etc, to get deeply insight in quantitative analysis. And we also need to probe into the relationship between parties on the supply chain, combine with VMI and CPFR method, sharing information to build up strategical relationship within the supply chain. At same time, the inspire system and culture should be built to ensure changes will be carried out, in order to reach stable relation in supply chain.
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