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论文编号：	4334
作者编号：	2120102204
上传时间：	2012/6/7 10:25:36
中文题目：	基于Petri网的非常规突发事件演化分析和应急决策——以地震为例
英文题目：	The dynamical simulation and emergency decision of unconventional emergency based on Petri Net:a Case of Earthquake
指导老师：	李勇建
中文关键字：	非常规突发事件; 地震; Petri网; 应急决策
英文关键字：	Unconventional Emergency; Earthquake; Petri nets; Emergency Decision
中文摘要：	近年来，随着国际工业化的加快，人们的生活水平日益提高，但是繁荣的背后，有一件事情正引起社会、国家以及人民群众的日益关注——潜在的（非常规）突发事件发生越来越频繁，给国家和社会带来的危害也越来越大。非常规突发事件具有难以预测性、衍生性、巨大破坏性、应急措施难以应对以及涉及范围广等特性，而如何对非常规突发事件进行应对不仅要考验一国的经济、社会系统承载能力,而且还挑战了政府的应急决策能力，而一个决策的失误将严重影响经济发展、社会稳定和生态健康。因此如何应对非常规突发事件、做好应急管理工作，构建科学的应急决策系统非常重要，这也是我们在新时期面临的一项艰巨任务。本文在国内外学者研究的基础上，对于突发事件、非常规突发事件、Petri网以及应急决策等内容都进行了详细的综述，然后运用集合论的相关知识，给出了本文对于非常规突发事件的结构化描述。在对非常规突发事件进行结构化描述之后，本文以地震事件为例，给出了非常规地震和一般地震的界定标准，并以此标准对过去几十年发生在中国的地震进行了区分，对其中的非常规地震进行了深入的研究，不仅分析了这些非常规地震的发生、发展过程，还总结了这些非常规地震的各个次生灾害，运用图论相关知识画出了非常规地震的次生事件灾害图。在确定非常规地震的次生灾害图后，本文运用Petri网画出了非常规地震发生、发展的Petri网图，之后对其中的4个典型次生事件（山体崩塌，房屋倒塌，交通中断，瘟疫）进行了深入研究，运用Petri工具对这四个典型次生事件的发生和发展过程进行了模拟。最后运用随机Petri网模型方法对非常规地震中各衍生事件发生阶段的概率进行了计算，为地震衍生事件的分析提供了方法。本文还对非常规地震应急决策进行了研究。本文认为非常规地震的应急决策可以分为两类：一类是对于像山体崩塌、通信中断、房屋倒塌这类激变型次生事件的应急决策；另一类是对于像瘟疫、泥石流和河道阻塞这类渐变型次生事件的应急决策。本文重点对非常规地震的渐变型次生事件应急决策进行了研究，运用Petri网工具，对瘟疫事件、泥石流事件和河道阻塞事件这三个渐变型事件的应急决策过程进行了模拟，然后以震后瘟疫事件为例，对瘟疫事件的应急决策系统进行了评估，找出其中的均衡状态及其变动规律，为改进应急决策系统的效率提供了思路。
英文摘要：	Recent years, with the rapid development of international industrialization, the lives of the working people are improving every day. But behind this boom, there is an event attracting more and more people’s attention which is the potential unconventional emergency. These days it happens with increasing frequency and is bringing more harm to our country and society. As we all that, unconventional emergency has many characteristics like unpredictability, derivative, destructiveness, hardly to make decision, covering a wide scope and so on. However, how to make an effective and fast decision to the unconventional emergency is not only a test to a country’s economic and social system bearing capability, but also a challenge to government’s emergency decision- making ability. Also, we all know that a wrong decision has a strong impact on our economic development, social stability and environmental health. So how to deal with the unconventional emergency, do well in the emergency management and make up a scientific emergency decision- making system is very important and is also a tremendous task we will confront in this new period. In the beginning, based on the domestic and foreign scholars’ research, this thesis summerizes the achievements of emergency, unconventional emergency, Petri net and emergency decision-making. Then we give a structured description to the unconventional emergency based on set theory. After we definite the unconventional emergency with set theory, we give a distinction standard between common earthquakes and unconventional Earthquakes. Then we use this distinction standard to separate the unconventional earthquakes from the earthquakes which happened in China since the 1960s and make a deep analysis to them. Not only do we analyze the development of unconventional earthquakes, but also we conclude their derivative events. Finally, we use graph theory to draw the damage graph of the unconventional earthquake’s derivative events. Furthermore, after drawing the damage graph, we use it to draw the Petri net , and use it to simulate the earthquake happening and its four typical derivative events ( landside, collapse of houses and buildings, traffic interruption and epidemic). After this we use stochastical Petri nets model to calculate the probabality of some derivative events in the earthquake happening which can provide good measures to earthquake derivative events forecasting. Finally, this thesis studies the emergency decision-making process of unconventional earthquake. We classify the emergency decisions into two kinds, one is the emergency decision made to deal with cataclysmic events like landside, communication interruption and collapse of houses and buildings, the other is made to deal with gradual changing events like epidemic, mudslide and river interruption. This paper pays much attention to the gradual changing events’ emergency decision. It uses Petri nets to simulate the decision-making process of epidemic, mudslide and river interruption events. Then base on the Markov chain (MC) of the Petri nets model, the performance of the emergency decision-making system of epidemic event is analyzed. We find out the equilibrium state and fluctuation pattern of the system and provide some ideas in improving it.
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