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论文编号：	4312
作者编号：	2120102237
上传时间：	2012/6/6 22:40:28
中文题目：	我国上市公司管理层业绩预告可靠性研究
英文题目：	A Study on the Reliability of Management Performance Forecast of A Listed Company In China
指导老师：	周晓苏
中文关键字：	管理层业绩预告，披露政策，披露可靠性，优化对策
英文关键字：	Management performance forecast, The Policy of Disclosure, Disclosure Reliability, Optimizing Countermeasures
中文摘要：	管理层业绩预告信息在一定程度上影响了投资者投资决策，从而受到了监管机构、管理层及投资者的广泛关注。本文主要从披露政策影响的视角研究了管理层业绩预告的可靠性，并提出了针对性的对策，从而为监管机构、管理层以及投资者提供理论参考和实践证据。本文研究创新点及相应研究发现如下：一、对管理层业绩预告可靠性进行了界定。我们将管理层业绩预告可靠性界定为精确的、不偏不倚的预告。并利用业绩预告形式与预告误差进行了变量度量。二、实证检验了披露政策对管理层业绩预告可靠性的影响。检验结果发现：在强制性披露政策下，从预告形式上来看，管理层业绩预告的可靠性要显著高于自愿性披露政策下的可靠性；从预告误差上来看，管理层业绩预告的可靠性要低于自愿性披露政策下的可靠性，但统计上不显著。三、提出了提高管理层业绩预告可靠性的对策。我们从强化监管制度、提高市场约束以及优化治理结构三方面提出了针对性的措施以提高管理层业绩预告可靠性。
英文摘要：	As one of the most important disclosure items, the management performance forecast affects the investors decision at a certain extent. So it broadly catch the attention of supervision institutions, managers and investors. Based on the disclosure policy perspective, we have studied the reliability of management performance forecast, and proposed some targeted optimizing countermeasures, so this study may provide theoretical reference and practical evidence for supervisory institutions, managers and investors. The innovation of this study and the finds of the empirical test are as follows: First, we give the definition of the reliability of management performance forecast. we have defined it as precise and impartial forecast. And use the form and the error of forecast to measure it. Second, we empirically test the affection of disclosure policy to the reliability of management performance forecast. We find that under the policy of mandatory disclosure, seeing from the form, the reliability of management performance forecast is significantly higher than under the policy of voluntary disclosure. Seeing from the error, the reliability of management performance forecast is lower than under the policy of voluntary disclosure, but it is not significantly. Third, we suggest some countermeasures to improve the reliability of management performance forecast. We give the countermeasures from three respects, namely strengthening the regulatory system, improving market constraints and optimizing the governance structure.
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