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论文编号：	4232
作者编号：	2120102219
上传时间：	2012/6/5 22:47:41
中文题目：	基于系统动力学的非常规突发事件发展演化研究——以地震为例
英文题目：	The Study on the evolution of Unconventional Emergence based on System Dynamics: a Case of Earthquake
指导老师：	李勇建
中文关键字：	非常规突发事件,发展演化,结构化描述,系统动力学
英文关键字：	Unconventional Emergency,Evolution Pattern,Structural Description,System Dynamics
中文摘要：	近些年特别是进入21世纪以来，全球范围内频发各种严重威胁人类生命安全及正常生活秩序的非常规突发事件，造成了大量的人员伤亡、经济损失及环境破坏。因非常规突发事件发生频率较低，加之这些事件会因所处环境、偶然事件等各种各样的原因，发展演化过程中的规律并不完全一致并难以完全掌控，人类对此类事件的应对往往显得比较苍白，以至于此类事件一旦发生，会给事件发生地乃至更大范围带来极大的社会和环境影响。在这样的背景下，本文通过对非常规突发事件特别是地震的发展演化规律进行探寻，为政府和群众在类似事件再发生时能更快地进行事件应对提供了一定参考和建议，将在一定程度上提高非常规突发事件的响应速度并减轻事件的影响。本文在回顾大量相关文献的基础上，结合本课题组内成员及其它学者对非常规突发事件发展演化的研究成果，基于结构化描述方法描述了非常规突发事件的事件链演化模式及四种基本的发展演化方式，并结合21世纪以来非常规突发事件中的2003年非典事件和2008年南方雪灾案例画出了相应的事件发展演化图。随后，我们针对本文的研究案例——地震，提出了非常规突发地震的一些衡量指标。在此基础上，通过阅读大量的非常规突发地震案例，我们提取了非常规突发地震中较常发生的次生衍生事件，进而粗略地画出了非常规突发地震的发展演化图，最后建立了自1970年以来全球的非常规突发地震的案例库。在进行了粗略的地震及其次生衍生事件的发展演化梳理之后，本文基于系统动力学的相关理论和方法，画出了地震部分常见次生衍生事件发展演化的因果反馈图，进而转化为流图，在此过程中，提出了政府和群众在事件发展演化中的一些应对建议。随后，本文结合汶川地震中的唐家山堰塞湖的相关数据，进行了堰塞湖事件的系统动力学的仿真，并根据仿真情况给出了堰塞湖应对的一些决策建议。
英文摘要：	In recent years especially in 21 century, amount of unconventional emergencies that threaten human’s safety and common life occur in the world. Once this kind of events happens, it will cause serious human losses and injuries as well as economy and environment damage. Since unconventional emergency doesn’t occur frequently and it will evolutes differently with its different environment and accidental incidents, the evolution law of it is usually different and hard to handle. As a result, people lose their hand when these events occur. Both the society and environment of the place where the event took place will be badly damaged. In this context, by figuring out the evolution law of some of these emergencies especially the unconventional earthquake, we give some advice to make these events easier and quicker for the government and residents to response. In this way, maybe the losses and damages caused by these events will be mitigated On the basis of the literature review, we describe the evolution pattern of events chain for the unconventional emergencies and the four simple ways how they develop with the help of structural description and other scholars’ research results. Combined with the unconventional emergencies occurred in 21 century, we use graph to show the evolution pattern of the two unconventional emergency cases: SARS in year 2003 and the Snow disaster of south China in year 2008. Later, we give some measures on unconventional earthquake. On that basis, by looking through massive cases of unconventional earthquakes, we pick up the most common events accompanied with them, and out of them, draw the evolution pattern of unconventional earthquake. After all these, we build database of the unconventional earthquakes since the year 1970. Based on the use of system dynamics and teasing of the evolution law among unconventional earthquakes, we use casual feedback figures to give pictorial representation of some of the accompanied events and then turn the casual feedback figures to flow charts. Furthermore, we give some suggestions of how government and residents can better response to these events according to above work. In the end, focused on dammed lake events in the events chain of unconventional earthquakes, we try to do simulation research and the give advice of how to cope with this kind of events according to simulation result.
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