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论文编号：	4197
作者编号：	2120102230
上传时间：	2012/6/5 15:07:51
中文题目：	创业板股价泡沫、高管辞职与减持套现
英文题目：	Bubble of Stock Price、Executives Resignation and Reduction of the Stock for Cash in Growth Enterprise Market
指导老师：	姚颐
中文关键字：	高管减持，股价泡沫，高管辞职
英文关键字：	Executives’ Reduction of shares, Stock Price Bubble; Executives’ Resignation
中文摘要：	我国设立创业板市场的主要目的是为中小规模的高科技和高成长性的企业提供便利的融资渠道，并丰富我国的多层次资本市场体系。但是自创业板市场开市以来，“三高”现象、高管辞职套现现象以及创业板公司业绩变脸现象相继出现。创业板被市场人士称之为“暴富板”、“套现板”。高管的大量辞职套现和“三高”现象不仅不利于创业板上市公司的发展，对创业板市场的长期发展也会产生不利影响。高管的减持、辞职的程度到底有多大；高管的减持与创业板公司的“三高现象”是否存在关系；而高管的辞职是否真像市场“传言”的那样，是为了提前减持套现做准备。本文试图通过研究解决上述问题并提出相关建议。 因此，本文以截止到2011年9月30日已经上市满一年的123家创业板上市公司为研究样本，试图通过实证的方法解决以下问题：创业板上市公司高管减持和辞职的情况有多严重？高管辞职的主要目的是否是为了日后减持做准备？影响高管减持股份的可能性和减持比例的主要因素是不是创业板市场的股价泡沫问题？除了股价泡沫还有哪些因素影响高管的减持行为？由于高管减持属于公司内部人的交易，本文在对公司内部人交易、高管减持、高管变更以及股价泡沫的相关文献进行了回顾，然后结合创业板市场的制度背景，基于高管减持股份的可能性和减持比例影响因素的角度，提出了四个相关假设，并通过描述性统计、独立样本t检验以及多元线性回归的方法，依次对四个假设进行了验证。 本文通过实证研究方法主要得到了以下几个结论：创业板上市公司的高管减持股份的可能性和减持比例与股价泡沫程度显著正相关；公司的未来业绩前景越差，高管减持股份的可能性越大，减持比例越高；公司股票的市场风险与高管减持股份的可能性以及高管的减持比例显著正相关；高管辞职与高管减持之间不存在显著性关系。同时，本文研究发现，公司的资产负债率与高管减持股份的可能性以及减持比例显著正相关；但是反应公司经营风险的每股经营现金流量以及反应公司成长性的销售收入增长率与高管的减持之间不存在显著性关系；公司规模与高管减持股份的可能性以及减持比例显著负相关；而且属于制造业的创业板上市公司，其高管减持股份的可能性较其他行业的公司更小。本文的主要贡献在于验证了高管辞职、股价泡沫与高管减持之间的关系，分析了高管减持的主要影响因素，有助于监管部门采取恰当措施规范高管减持行为，稳定市场。文章的最后，提出了一些建议。
英文摘要：	The main purpose of China's establishment of GEM is to provide convenient financing channels for high-tech and high growth companies which are small and medium-sized, and also enrich our multi-leveled capital market system. Since the GEM market opened, however, not only appeared the phenomenon of high issue price and high IPOPE, but also many executives have resigned from the companies and reduced the shares their holdings to get cash. As a result, the GEM is called "the Fortunes board” by market participants. These phenomena will not be conducive to the development of the companies listed on GEM, but also will adversely affect the long-term development of the GEM. To what extent is the reduction of shares and resignation of the executives? Whether the fact is that the purpose of executives’ resignation is to reduce shares they hold in order to get cash as soon as possible? What is the relationship between the phenomenon of high IPOPE and executives’ resignation? This paper attempts to resolve these issues through research and suggestions. Therefore, this paper uses the 123 companies that have been listed before September 30, 2010 as the study sample. We attempt to solve the following question by the empirical method. How serious is the problem of executives’ reduction of shares and executives’ resignation in GEM? Whether the main purpose of the resignation of senior executives is to prepare for an early reduction of shares in the future? Meanwhile, Whether the Stock price Bubble of the GEM is the one of the main factors that affects the possibility of executives’ resignation and the proportion of executives’ resignation？In addition to the stock price bubble of the GEM ，which factors affect the behavior of executives’ reduction of shares? As the executives’ reduction of shares belongs to the company's insider trading of company's insiders, we review the related literatures of insider trading、executives’ resignation、executives’ reduction of shares and stock price bubble firstly. Then combining with the institutional background of the GEM and basing on the perspective of executives’ reduction of shares, we put forward four related assumptions. After that, we use method of descriptive statistics、independent sample t-test、multiple linear regression and Logistic regression and verify the four assumptions. In this paper, we get the following conclusions with the empirical methods. The possibility and the proportion of executives’ reduction of shares have a significant positive correlation with the degree of stock price bubble in companies listed on GEM. The worse the Company's future performance is, the likelihood and the proportion of executives’ reduction of shares are higher. The market risk of the stock has a significant positive correlation with the possibility and the proportion of the executives’ reduction of shares. However, there is no significant relationship between the executives’ reduction of shares and the executives’ resignation. Also, we find that the company's asset-liability ratio has a significant positive correlation with both the possibility of the executives’ reduction of shares and the proportion of executives’ reduction of shares. The operating cash flows per share which is on behalf of the company's operating risk and the growth ratio of sales revenue which is on behalf of the company's growth, however, have no significant relationship with the executives’ reduction of shares. The size of the company has a significant negative correlation with the possibility of the executives’ reduction of shares. Companies belong to the manufacturing sector is more likely to appear the phenomenon of executives’ reduction of shares. The main contribution of this paper is that it verified the relationship between executives’ resignation、executives’ reduction of shares and the stock price bubble and analyzed the main factors of executives’ reduction of shares. It will help regulatory authorities to take appropriate measures to regulate executives’ reduction of shares and executives’ resignation and stabilize the GEM.
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