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论文编号：	391
作者编号：	032947
上传时间：	2008/1/8 9:33:07
中文题目：	投资者基于会计信息的决策行为研
英文题目：	A Study on the Investors’Deci
指导老师：	周晓苏
中文关键字：	会计信息质量特征 有限理性投资<
英文关键字：	qualitative characteristics of
中文摘要：	摘要 “财务概念框架”在我国被称为会计准则中的基本准则，随着会计准则国际趋同的不断发展，研究和制定我国财务概念框架已经成为我国会计与国际接轨、进一步发展的重要基础。我国财务会计概念框架的发展起步较晚，在充分学习和借鉴西方国家经验的基础上，目前将会计目标作为整个会计理论研究的逻辑起点，进而制定我国财务会计概念框架和具体准则的发展道路已经成为我国学者的一项共识，这是一条区别于过去那种“假设——原则——准则”逻辑体系的新的发展途径。 我国当前的会计目标是一种包容“受托责任”的“决策有用”观念。在“决策有用”目标的指引下，会计信息的质量特征的确定和定义，必然要区别于传统上的认识。对这个问题的研究不能再如以往那样建立在假想和演绎的基础上，而必须建立在掌握信息使用者的主体——投资者和债权人决策模式的基础上，根据决策的具体模式去研究会计信息应具备何种质量特征才能满足使用者的决策要求。 本文将投资者作为研究对象，将他们视作有限理性的社会人，而不是具备完备理性的经济人，遵循Trueblood委员会研究框架，结合行为经济学的成果，利用数据挖掘的数据分析方法，针对我国资本市场，从探索其决策模式出发，开展对在其决策模式当中使用哪些会计信息和如何使用问题的研究，最后从使用者对会计信息使用方式的角度，提出理解和定义会计信息质量特征的新思路，为我国会计目标的研究和财务会计概念框架的研究提供证据。 本文认为投资和投机难以明确区分，证券市场的投机倾向是难以消除的，正如前景理论所言，人们关心的是财富的变化量，而不是财富的最终值，投机是人的本性。如果投资活动的主要目的是在短期内获得价差，那么投资者的决策必定是寻找那些目前价格较低，而在不久价格会升高的股票。他们如何作出这样的判断呢？本文的观点是投资者面对不确定的未来，无法独立地对股票的应有价格作出预测，而必须为自己与投资的股票寻找一个参照物，这个参照物目前的价格被认定为自己欲投资股票在不久的将来会实现的交易价格。这种观点的依据是心理学对于人类认知特点的研究成果。 本文通过借鉴行为经济学的研究成果，以价格羊群效应作为实证研究的起点，利用数据挖掘技术进行了数据归纳，得出投资者通过比较会计信息相似性来得到股票价格初始值判断的决策模式，针对这个数据挖掘试验的结果，本文进行了充分的认知心理学解释。 认知心理学指出人们并不是按照理性预期理论的方式开展其活动，对风险的态度在不同状态下是不同的。投资者面对的是一个模糊的未来，此时其决策更加依赖于其决策框架。投机是股票市场中的普遍趋势，我们所称的投资者实际上总是在制定投机决策，判断短期内股票价格的变化趋势关键在于是否能正确预计市场中其他投资人对价格变化的看法。投资者利用会计指标并不能预测企业未来的收益情况，也不能利用它们和某个特定的函数关系去计算某只股票的价格，而是利用所有股票在某几个会计属性方面的相似性将股票划分为不同的群落，当一个群落中的部分股票的市场价格发生变化时，说明了其他投资人对此类股票短期价格变化的一种认同，投资者会认为群落中其他的股票也将发生相似的变动，也就是说处于一个群落中的股票在价格方面也会具备相似性，这种行为规律在人们决定许多商品的交易价格的过程中都会出现，它体现了人们的一种认知偏差，会计信息在这里成为了市场价格的一种参照系。会计信息的价值相关性并非通过其决定交易价格来体现，更多地通过其在一段时期内成为投资者寻找和确定套利对象的有力参考来进行体现。 本文针对数据背后所隐藏的这种投资者使用会计信息的方式，提出了定义会计信息质量特征和其结构层次的一些观点，综述如下： 1．可靠性、可比性和可理解性应作为首要的质量特征。 2．相关性不应该作为首要的质量特征，相关性已经融入决策有用会计目标之中。强调会计信息的预测价值，对投资决策的支持作用并不明显。 3．投资者决策过程所关注的会计信息是不断变化的。
英文摘要：	Abstract “Conceptual framework underlying financial accounting” is known as the basic standard among the Chinese accounting standards. Along with the international convergence of accounting standards, research on development of China’s financial accounting conceptual framework is fundamental to convergence with international accounting practice and further development. Although such research started relatively late in China, Chinese scholars have reached consensus on the approach to it: to begin the accounting theoretical research from the logical starting point of accounting objective, and then to establish China’s financial accounting conceptual framework and specific standards. Such approach differs from the traditional logical structure of “hypothesis – principle – standards”. The current Chinese accounting objective is “Decision usefulness”, which also involves the concept of accountability. Under “decision usefulness” objective, the qualitative characteristics of accounting information must be identified with a new approach. The study should not be based on hypothesis and deduction, but should be based on the decision mode of accounting information users including investors and creditors, whose decision mode must be analyzed to find their decision needs and accordingly decide the qualitative characteristics of accounting information that can satisfy their needs. Treating investors as social persons with bounded rationality instead of economic persons with full rationality, this study examines what accounting information is used by investors and how it is used in their decision mode. Adopting the research framework by Trueblood Committee and theoretical development in behavioral economics, this study uses data mining to investigate Chinese capital market and puts forward a new way to understand and define the qualitative characteristics of accounting information, which provides new evidence in accounting objective research and financial accounting conceptual framework research in China. I argue that it is hard to distinguish investing from speculating and to extinguish the speculation tendency in the security market. As stated in Prospective Theory, people are concerned with the change of wealth instead of the final value in wealth, and gambling is human nature. If investing is mainly for short term gain, the investors must look for stocks with low current price and price increase potential in the near future. How do they make such decision? I believe that the investor, facing uncertainty, is unable to predict independently the true value of stocks, and has to rely on a reference stock whose present price is considered to be the future price of the stock to purchase. Such argument is based on psychological theories on cognitive characteristics of human being. With theories drawn from behavioral economics, this study starts from the Herding Effect of the stock price, using data mining technique, and develops the investor decision mode in which investors make the initial stock valuation judgment based on comparisons of accounting information similarity. I explain the data mining result in detail from the perspective of cognitive psychology. According to cognitive psychology, people do not act in accordance with rational expectation theory, and their attitude to risk changes along with contexts. Facing ambiguous future, investors’ decision depends more on their decision framework. Speculation is the general tendency in stock market, and the so called investors are actually always making speculation decisions. Whether one can accurately perceive other investors’ view of stock price fluctuation is the key to accurate prediction of short term stock price trend. Investors can not forecast firm’s future earning’s prospect with accounting ratios, neither can they calculate a stock price based on the accounting ratios and a functional relationship. What investors do involve grouping stocks into several herds based on accounting characteristic similarities of the stocks. The price changes of some stocks within one herd indicate agreement by other investors on these stocks’ short term price changes. The investor will believe that price of other stocks within the same herd will change accordingly because price of stocks in the same herd should change similarly. Such decision mode happens often when people decide on many commodities’ price, and reflects a cognitive bias as accounting information becomes reference system to market price. Accounting information’s direct link to trading price does not reveal its valuation relevance feature, which is reflected in the reference role played by accounting information for investors to locate an investment object. In regard to the way investors use accounting information, this study puts forward the following standpoints to define the qualitative characteristics of accounting information and to set up related framework: 1. Reliability, comparability (horizontal) and understandability should be included in the primary qualities. 2. Having been blended into the accounting objective of decision usefulness, relevance should not be categorized as a primary quality. Emphasizing the prediction value of accounting information does not help the decision making process very much. 3. Investors pay attention to different accounting information in their decision process.
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