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论文编号：	3817
作者编号：	2120092792
上传时间：	2011/11/28 9:15:19
中文题目：	房地产企业风险管理与实证研究
英文题目：	Risk Management and Empirical Research for Real Estate Enterprise
指导老师：	张国萍
中文关键字：	房地产企业；公司治理；风险管理；多元线性回归法；实证分析
英文关键字：	Real enterprise; Company management;Risk management; Multiple linear regression method;Empirical analysis
中文摘要：	中国的住房制度改革自1998年正式起步，行至今日已近13个年头。除了2009年因为2008年 “全球金融风暴”的影响而略有下调外，商品房价格整体一路上行。从产业地位上看，房地产业以其市场需求大、产业链条长、资本、技术以及劳动密集为一体等特点，已经成为国民经济第三产业中仅次于服务业和商业的第三大支柱产业，同时还是涉及土地这一重要资源的资本密集型行业。由于我国的房地产行业真正开始市场化进程不过十多年的光景，造成了市场发育不健全，政策法规不完善，虽然早年的一些房地产开发企业在操作水平、管理水平极低的情况下也获得了高额利润，但随着市场经济的发展、国际化的深入、各项政策法规的完善、国家宏观调控的加强以及消费者理性的增长，一大批房地产开发企业相继倒闭和转产。房地产开发行业由于投资规模巨大、开发周期较长、涉及的产业链条广、牵扯的社会资源多，所以开发的全过程都伴随着很多的风险，已经成为我国目前最典型的高收益、高风险的行业之一。在一轮轮的房地产开发热潮中，人们关注的常常是其表面的高利润，而却忽视了其潜在的高风险，我国的房地产开发企业内外都隐藏了众多的、严重的危机因素。09、10两年，随着经济环境的变化、社会矛盾的激化，不但政府融资平台更广泛的控制了土地开发，老百姓、媒体更是频繁呼吁政府在房地产领域更深、更广的介入。由此，一轮轮频繁而又力度空前的宏观调控政策、金融调控政策喷涌而出，条条见血，直指开发商的要害。如何在被称为“史上最严厉”的调控下健康而长远的发展？如何在如此复杂的国际和国内宏观背景环境下透视和分析房地产企业良性发展的规律和模式？如何在我国特殊的“市场经济+政策性调控”的房地产行业管理机制内梳理出全面而实际的风险管理层次和模型，降低开发商投资、建设、运营以及管理等众多风险？这些都是本文探究的基础前提和核心论述要点。本文站在房地产开发商的角度进行研究。首先介绍研究我国房地产企业实施风险管理的背景、目的和意义，同时阐述了国内外房地产企业风险管理研究现状，推导出本文研究的内容、方法和主要创新点；接着，对风险管理的相关理论进行总结和分析，主要包括风险的概念和特征、风险的一般分类与构成要素、风险管理的理论发展历程与风险管理的目标与流程以及房地产企业风险管理的理论研究回顾等三大方面进行理论要点的归纳、总结，得出本文在房地产企业风险管理研究中可借鉴的理论基础和目前理论研究中存在的不足，即定性研究是目前理论界对房地产企业风险研究的主要方向，而定量的研究明显不足；宏观理论阐述较多，但实际指导性不具体；对房地产项目开发实施的风险研究较多，但对企业管理层面与项目操作的结合型风险研究不够；分散的研究较多，系统整合的研究较少；理论概述较多而可以具体指导企业风险管理的数据模型较少。在以上理论研究的基础上，本文根据COSO风险管理整合框架结合我国房地产企业自身特点，详细论述了房地产企业风险管理的流程，即风险的识别、风险评估、风险应对和风险监控。为了使本文的实操性及实际指导意义更强，本文运用层次分析法和多元线性回归法，结合我国沪深股市上市的所有121家房地产企业全面而详尽的数据进行了实证分析，从4大类风险层面、27个指标参数，8大评估角度进行数理统计和分析，在客观数据的基础上综合论述了本文所设定的风险指标评定权重和数据模型，尽量做到定性分析与定量统计的结合。最后结合作者的工作实践，以GT城项目为例，运用本文相关的分析方法，对该公司及项目在实际操作和管理中存在的风险进行了评估，并就公司管理及项目开发过程中可能面临的风险提出相应防范措施和解决办法。房地产企业风险管理是房地产企业管理的重要组成部分，随着房地产开发规模化、专业化程度的提高，以及国家各种细化调控政策的出台，对于房地产开发企业的管理水平也提出新的要求，而成功的企业管理是以风险管理为核心的全过程动态管理，通过风险管理可以更好地明确公司的业务范围，优化企业运营的绩效过程，同时可以实时监控项目运作过程，有效地进行过程控制，对于提高房地产企业的管理水平将起到积极的作用。由于房地产行业在我国发展的时间还不是很长，所以从现有的国内关于房地产项目内部控制与风险管理的文献看，还没有对房地产企业内控管理及全程项目操作的风险管理进行深入和系统的整合研究，所以本文就风险管理的理论结合我国房地产开发企业公司治理及项目开发的现实状况进行了务实的研究。本文对房地产的风险管理研究具有系统的理论及实际应用价值。由于个人的经验和能力所限，本文在房地产开发企业风险类别的划分、风险要素权重的模型设定和计算方法上还存在很多的不足，这些都需要根据实际的经验和理论研究的深入而不断地补充和完善。
英文摘要：	From 1998, housing reform of China has been gone through 13 years till now. The price of housing never goes down excepted in 2009, which was because of the impact of 2008 global financial crisis. From the industrial view, the real estate industry is the industry with great market demand, long industrial chain and gathered with capital, technology and labor-intensive. Besides the Services and the Business industry, the real estate industry has became the third biggest industry in the economy, mean while, it is also a capital-intensive industry involved in land resource. As real estate industry of China has begun its marketization process only more than a decade, resulting in the imperfect development of the market, policies and regulations inadequate. Although some real estate development enterprises won the high profits in the early years’ under the lower operating and management level, with the development of market economy, the further internationalization, the improvement of policies and regulations, the strengthening of national macro-control and the growth of consumer rationality, a large number of real estate development enterprises have closed down and converted. Because of the scale of investment ,the longer development cycle, the extensive industrial chain ，the abundant social resources in real estate development industry, the overall process for the development has a lot of risk, which has become one of the most typical high yield and high risk industries of our country at present. In a round of real estate development boom, people often concern about the high profits, but ignore the potential high-risk, a large number of serious risk factors are hidden in the Chinese real estate development companies. With the changing of the economic environment and the intensification of social conflicts in 2009 and 2010, not only the government financing platform controlled the land development broader, but also the ordinary people and the media more frequently asked the government to involve in the real estate market much deeper and broader. Therefore, many rounds of frequent and intensity of macro-control policies and financial control policies came out. Each of them directed at the developer’s point. How can we develop ourselves healthy and go far away under “the most severe control policy”? How can we reduce the invest capital, operate the company and do the risk management under such a complex context of international and domestic macroeconomic environment? All of these are basis and premise and discussion center points of this paper. This paper stands point of view of real estate developers. Firstly, this paper will introduce the backgrounds, aims and meanings of studying the implementation of risk management in our real estate enterprises. Meanwhile, and then it makes an analysis on the related theories of risk management which are conclude the concepts, characters, general classifications , elements, the development courses ,targets and process and theory research review. Then with a conclusion and analysis regarding the risk management, mainly covers three aspects including the concept and characteristic of risk management, category and element of the risk, theory development progress of the risk management as well as its objective and the procedure, and the real estate industry risk management theory investigation retrospect. Then we have a referential basic theory which is in the real estate of Enterprise Risk Management study. We also have a found that we have a lot of insufficient from the study. The insufficient obtains two parts. The first one is Qualitative study that is the major research of real estate of Enterprise Risk Management study. However the quantitative investigation is strikingly absent. For example, there is lots of Journal of Political, which is specific of the actual guidance; moreover, there are many study about .risk investigation of the real estate project development, but is insufficient to the business management stratification plane and the project operation's union risk investigation; then it has many dispersion research, but it has few system conformity's research. In addition, comparing with numerous corresponding theories or overviews, the practical "guiding book" for enterprise risk management data model occupies in rather smaller quantity. On the basis of mentioned theory and research. This paper expounds in detail the procedure of the estate enterprise's venture management. That is the recognition of the venture, the evaluation of the venture, the reaction of the venture and the supervision of the venture. To make more powerful of this paper's practical and the directing meaning of practice, this paper use the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Multiple Linear Regressions Method combined with the comprehensive and detailed data of all of the 121 listed estate enterprises to make a proof analysis. This paper makes a data statistics and analysis from 4 kinds of the venture level, 27 index parameters and 8 evolutions perspectives. To analyze synthesized of the venture index evaluating weighing and data model of this paper's setting. Try to make a combination of the qualitative analysis and the qualitative statistics. Finally, this paper combines with the working’s practice of the author; With GT city project as an example, Using this analysis method associated with this article to evaluate the risk that exists in the actual operation and management of the company and project, and coming up with the preventive measures and ways of the risk that the company management and project development process may be facing. The risk management is an important part of the real estate enterprise management. With the development of scale and professionalization in real estate exploitation and the refining regulation policies issued, the level of real estate management has been given new requirements. However, the successful enterprise management is a dynamic processing management whose core is risk management. According to the risk management, the business scope can be cleared better and the performance of enterprise operation can be optimized. Meanwhile, it can monitor the project operation process real-time and supervise process effectively which play an important role on developing the real estate management. From the domestic references on real estate project control and risk management, there does not have an deepening and systematic research on real estate internal control management and risk management of overall project operation , because the real estate have not developed for a long time in china. Therefore, this paper makes a practical analysis on the theory of risk management, current situation of Chinese real estate enterprise management and project operation. This paper has the systematic values of theory and practical. Owing to the limitations of experience and ability, this paper is till inadequate of the classification of risk category, the model set and calculation of risk factors. All of these shortages need to constantly supplement according to the practical experience and academic research.
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