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论文编号：	3666
作者编号：	2120092738
上传时间：	2011/11/18 14:35:22
中文题目：	天津子牙投资公司风险预警研究
英文题目：	The Research of Tianjin Ziya Investment Company Risk Early Warning
指导老师：	黄福广
中文关键字：	投融资平台，产业区开发，风险预警
英文关键字：	Investment and financing platform，Industrial district development，risk pre-warning
中文摘要：	最近几年地方投融资平台公司快速发展，在贯彻国家发展战略，实现地方经济社会发展计划，积极扩大城市基础设施和公共设施投资建设，推动城市化进程方面发挥了重大作用。国家审计署审计结果显示，截至2010年底，全国地方政府性债务余额107174.91亿元，其中融资平台公司、政府部门和机构举借的分别为49710.68亿元和24975.59亿元，投融资平台公司占比46.38%。巨大的债务规模、低收益和较长投资回收期的业务结构导致了投融资平台公司风险对整个金融和经济系统的威胁，因此对投融资平台公司的风险研究意义重大。本文的研究对象是天津城投集团控股子公司子牙投资公司的风险管理。子牙投资公司具有投融资平台公司特征，但又有其投资业务的特殊性。本文回顾分析了风险管理相关理论和风险预警研究发展趋势，在环境分析、风险识别、风险评估的框架内，试图针对子牙投资公司的自身特征提出更具适用性和操作性的风险识别架构和风险评估系统，进而提出具有现实意义的风险预警机制。本文对子牙投资公司进行了深入分析，以风险载体、风险诱因和风险事件为框架对案例公司进行了主要风险识别，提出了以风险变量为核心的风险评估系统，最后在风险预警体系的基础上，提出了构建风险预警系统的相关建议。
英文摘要：	In recent years, local investment and financing platform companies have develop rapidly, In carrying out the national development strategy, making the local economic and social development plan, and actively expanding the city infrastructure and public facilities construction investment, promoting the urbanization process has played a major role. The audit results of National Audit Office are shown that, by the end of 2010, the local government debt balance is 10.717491 trillion RMB. Including financing platform company government departments and agencies raised separately for 4,971,068 trillion RMB and 2,497,559 trillion RMB, investment and financing platform companies account for 46.38%. Great debt, low income and a long scale of the Payback period of investment capital in the business structure led to the risks of investment and financing platform company to the threat of financial and economic system. so the risk of investment and financing platform company research is of great significance. This study is targeted at Tianjin Infrastructure Investment group holdings subsidiary ZIYA investment company's risk management. ZIYA investment company has a feature of investment and financing platform, but again, has the characteristic of the particularity of its investment business. This paper reviewed the risk management related theory and risk early warning research development trend, Within the framework of environmental analysis ,risk identification and risk pre-warning , trying to put forward more applicabal and operational risk identification structure and risk early-warning index based on the characteristics of ZIYA investment company, and then put forward realistic risk pre-warning system. This dissertation make an in-depth analysis of ZIYA investment company ,a case study of the main risk identification in the frame of risk carrier, risk incentives and risk events ,Put forward a risk pre-warning index system as the core of the risk pre-warning system. Finally, constructing risk pre-warning system related Suggestions was put forward on the basis of risk early-warning index system.
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