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论文编号：	3538
作者编号：	2220090877
上传时间：	2011/10/15 15:10:43
中文题目：	电力输电项目风险管理研究――以南方电网500kV串联补偿项目为例
英文题目：	Study on Risk Management For Power Transmission Projects--China Southern Grid 500KV Flexible Alternating Current Transmission Systems
指导老师：	于斌
中文关键字：	关键词：电力输电 风险管理 层次分析 模糊综合判断
英文关键字：	KEYWORDS: Electric Transmission, Risk Management, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment
中文摘要：	随着世界各国对气候变化、保障能源安全的关注，作为实现低碳电力的基础与前提，智能电网技术近年来在很多国家得到快速发展，并有力促进了电网的智能化。智能电网已成为未来电网发展趋势。而电力输电工程是电网建设的基础为智能电网提供有力保障。大规模的输电项目建设，巨额的投资，给输电工程建设管理工作特别是商务风险提出了更高的要求。随着电力输电项目的规模和数量不断增多，与之相应的商务风险也发生了变化，风险的因素增多，内容日趋复杂，通用电气公司所面临的商务风险也日趋多样化和本地化。因此，商务风险管理急需加强和完善，对于商务风险评价和控制的研究也势在必行。本文采用层次分析法和模糊综合判断等多种研究方法。首先，以风险管理基本理论为基础，对电力输电项目风险管理的识别进行阐述。其次，以通用电气公司为研究对象，结合电力输电项目风险的特殊性，介绍通用电气能源建立商务风险管理体系以及具体实施办法和经验。第三，结合南方电网500kV串补输电项目，利用层次分析法和模糊综合判断法对具体项目进行分析，并得出综合风险等级。最后，针对此项目中存在的各类风险，提出风险控制策略。本文在引入风险管理方法论的基础上，结合理论分析、访问调查以及案例实践，建立电力输电项目风险管理模型，进而针对电力输电项目风险特点对风险识别、评价和应对环节予以具体展开，把重点放在适合于电力输电项目风险的风险评价方法的应用上。通过本课题的研究，对于如何管理电力输电项目风险的特殊性和丰富并完善了项目风险管理的方法和内容，具有一定的现实指导意义和应用价值。
英文摘要：	With more and more attention of climate changes and energy security over the world, smart grid technology, as the base of low carbon electricity, is developing quickly and makes smart grid strong. Smart grid has been the trend of the future grid. The electric transmission project, as the base of grid construction, gives the strong support for smart grid. With more and more large scale of electric transmission construction and investment, commercial risk management becomes more and more important and critical. This thesis uses Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy comprehensive assessment and other research techniques. Firstly, this thesis makes a statement of the risk of electric transmission project with the foundation of the risk management theory. Secondly, this thesis takes GE Energy as the object of study, through the analyzing of characteristics of electric transmission project, to introduce the risk system of commercial operation and its methodology and experience. Thirdly, with the method of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive assessment, this thesis makes the overall assessment of risk for 500kV electric transmission of China Southern Grid. Finally, this thesis proposes the strategy of commercial risk control for the existing risk. Based on the theory of risk management, the risk management are identified and analyzed. This thesis focuses on the application of risk assessment methodology. Therefore, this topic researching will certainly bring all the project parties great guiding significance and application value in terms of how to manage the risk of electric transmission and improve the commercial risk management.
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