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论文编号：	3518
作者编号：	2220070645
上传时间：	2011/6/21 12:40:47
中文题目：	苏丹火电站项目风险管理研究——以苏丹喀北项目为例
英文题目：	Study on the risk managment of Sudan thermal power plant project--take Sudan Khartoum north power station for example
指导老师：	于仲鸣
中文关键字：	苏丹项目;火电站工程;风险管理
英文关键字：	Sudan project;risk management;power plant project
中文摘要：	国际火电工程承包项目是一个完善的系统工程，由于它涉及的工程系统多、设备质量要求高、安装及调试高、移交水平高、项目各里程碑节点要求苛刻，且各个国家的国际关系、政治形势、法律法规等建设环境等都大大不同，同时在项目实际操作过程中还会遇到我国工程承包商不适应的国外技术标准与规范、与国内大型火电大相径庭的作业环境及协调环境等；因此，其风险高、运作难度大的特点已经为业内人士所广泛认知。 在国际火电工程的项目运作过程中，项目相关方会受到各种风险的考验：“风险”可能是项目所在国大环境的宏观影响，像经济、政治、法律等系统性风险；也可能是由于项目管理者自身工作疏漏而造成的风险，像管理、财务和技术等风险；另一方面，也存在着人类能力难于驾驭的风险，例如沙尘暴、地震、海啸、台风等自然风险等。同时，国际项目的建设过程还涉及了大量的不确定因素，面临的风险随着工程的进度也将越来越多，而且这些风险因素之间的内在关系错综复杂，各种风险因素之间以及与外界因素之间的交叉影响使风险呈现出多层次性的特点，因此，风险所导致的损失规模也越来越大。随着项目的进行，项目所面临的风险无论在质还是量的方面都会发生变化，有些风险会得到控制，有些风险会发生并且难以控制，同时在项目的每一阶段都可能产生新的风险。 因此，涉外火电工程风险特点和国内的火电站项目相比具有其独特性：合同额较高（均超过1亿美金）、综合技术含量高（包括设计质量、设备制造质量、建筑施工质量、安装工程质量、调试运行质量、人员素质等）、相关利益者比较多（业主、咨询公司、总承包商、项目所属国的外交部、财政部、进出口银行、设备制造商、设计供应商、施工承包商、调试分包商、运行分包商、储运分包商等）、受项目所属国的综合环境影响非常大（包括政治环境、社会文化环境、自然环境）、接口关系复杂等。这些特点就决定了运作国际火电项目和国内项目是有明显不同的，也就是说国际火电工程项目的风险爆发概率更高，应对起来更加复杂，所需投入的资源要更多。 目前，由于我国内部市场环境的变化，我国的火电工程承包企业走出去的比例越来越多，但工程履约率却不高，就目前笔者能接触的国际火电工程履约率不足10%。在项目的运作过程中能否有效的化解风险，是项目能否获得经济利益最大化与市场利益最大化的根本所在。现阶段我国各领域国际工程承包商，大都处在竞争为主，协作为辅，各自为战的状态下，大家在国际项目中锁遇到的风险和遭受的损失很多是雷同的，风险管理事先观望、事后“救火”的状态，并没有完善的管理体系及相应的沟通，不利于有效防范化解国际工程承包风险，减少企业损失及提高我国承包商的管理声誉。同时，也有越来越多的外国承建商进入中国工程市场，参与中国的基础设施建设。中国的工程承包企业在国内、外都面临着越来越激烈的生存竞争，在这种弱肉强食的竞争中，竞争力弱的承包商将败下阵来，不得不退出这个市场。如何有效地避开大大小小的风险，加强风险防范意识，最终获得利润，长期以来一直是我们关注的焦点问题；为了能够在国际工程市场竞争中站稳脚跟并且不断发展壮大，我国工程承包企业必须在不断增强自身竞争力的同时，加强对工程项目的管理，尤其是风险管理，风险管理已经成为项目管理者必须关注并付出巨大精力的一项日常工作。开展对工程建设项目风险管理的研究和探索，并能得到一些成熟的经验和一些指导性的方法及规律，对项目的顺利履约就具有了非常重要的意义和价值。 尽管在项目运作的过程中，风险是必须面对的，但是依据风险管理理论，大多数的风险是可以识别的。而且，虽然对项目不利的风险因素是大量存在的，但我们也不能忽视对项目预期有利的风险因素，例如汇率风险和原材料价格风险，汇率、原材料价格的波动既有可能导致项目成本的增加，也可能带来额外的收益。如果能通过适当的方法来进行评估，我们就能够利用相应的应急预案来将风险影响方向向有利于保护项目利益增加的方向发展。因此，风险对项目而言也是双刃剑。但遗憾的是目前我国大多数国际承包企业还没有有意识地去研究和把握此类风险。一直以来，很多承包企业只能在项目运作过程中摸索前进，而很少总结经验、未雨绸缪。 各级风险的爆发必然是在特定的客观环境影响下通过不断的积累而形成的，但风险的爆发是有一定规律的。如果能有一些成熟的风险辨识和应对经验的积累，就能使走出去的我国火电站承包商在国际项目的风险管理过程中少走一些弯路，减少风险损失。 因此，本文尝试通过作者自身经历的苏丹国际电站工程总包的经验总结，以此项目承包中的风险管理工作作为硕士论文的主要研究目的，专门针对国际工程承包风项目的风险管理建立起一种管理机制，提出国际工程承包风险主要风险清单及应对方案，希望能够通过理论探讨，结合个人在非洲苏丹的实际工作实践，提出一些行之有效的风险预警和应对措施，为我国的国际工程承包企业提供一定的参考经验。 关键词：国际火电站工程 苏丹国际电站工程项目 风险管理
英文摘要：	International thermal power plant project is a complete systematic engineering. There are lots of engineering systems, higher requirements for equipment quality, higher standard of erection, commissioning and hand-over, strict limits of project milestone; moreover, there are huge differences in the international relationship among countries, political circumstance, rules & regulations, and construction environment; meanwhile, during the practical project operating period, there will be different international technical standards and regulations which Chinese contractors are not familiar with, and completely different operation and coordination environment comparing to Chinese project; thus, the character of high risk and difficult operation have become common awareness of all the people involving in this field. While operating international thermal power plant project, the corresponding parties of the project will face with various kinds of risks: “risk” can be the macroscopic effect of the objective country, like economy, politics, law and other systematic risks; it can also be the risks caused by the omission of project managers themselves, like management, finance, technology and so on; on the other hand, there are risks that human power can not control, like the sand storm, earthquake, seaquake, typhoon, and other natural risks. At the same time, there are large quantities of uncertain factors during construction period, and the risks will increase along with project progress; the internal connection among these risks is complicated, moreover, the cross impact between the internal and external risks has made the consequential loss and damage even larger. Besides, as the project proceed, both the quality and the quantity of these risks will change, among them, some can be controlled, and others will be very difficult to control, let alone new risks will possibly appear in every stage of the project. In conclusion, the risk of international project has its own specificity comparing to Chinese thermal power plant project: higher contract rate (average above 100 million dollars), higher comprehensive technology (including design quality, equipment manufacturing quality, construction quality, erection quality, commissioning & operation quality, manpower quality , etc.) , more corresponding interested parties ( the owner, consulting company, general contractor, the ministry of foreign affairs and ministry of finance of the objective country, import & export bank, equipment manufacturer, design supplier, construction contractor, commissioning subcontractor, operation subcontractor, transportation subcontractor, etc.), larger influence of the comprehensive environment of objective country (including political environment, social & cultural environment, natural environment), more complicated interface connection, etc. These characters have made huge differences between international and Chinese project; that is, the risk rate of international project is much higher, the solutions are more complicated, and the required input resources are much larger. Nowadays, because of the change of Chinese market environment, the rate of international thermal power plant project has gradually increased; however, the performance rate is not high; based on the international project the composer of this thesis has involved in, the rate is less than 10%. So, whether the risk can be eliminated or not during project operation period has become the key of optimizing and maximizing the economic and marketing benefits. At the present stage, Chinese international project contractors in various fields are mainly competitors, and only few of them have developed cooperative relationships; under such competitive circumstance, the existed risks and losses are similar; besides, most of the risk manager has this “wait-and-see” attitude beforehand, who will just try to remedy after the risk has happened, and there are no complete risk managing system and necessary communication; therefore, it has great disadvantages of preventing and eliminating international project risks, as well as reducing the company loss and improving the managing reputation of Chinese international project contractors. At the same time, there are more and more foreign contractors joining in the infrastructure construction and competing in Chinese project market. Thus, Chinese international project contractors have faced with fierce competition both in Chinese and international market and have to struggled for their existence. Under this law of the jungle, those contractors with less competitive power have been defeated and forced to leave this “battlefield”. As a result, problems like how to avoid those large and small risks, how to enhance the risk precautionary awareness, and how to benefit from international projects have become the focal points of Chinese international project contractors for a very long time. In order to keep a foothold in international project market and then develop & promote themselves, Chinese international project contractors have to constantly increase their own competitive power, as well as enhance the management of international projects, especially the risk management, which has certainly become one of the routine job that all risk managers have to devote themselves to. In this manner, doing research on risk management of construction project, gaining mature experiences as well as guiding method and rules have become extremely meaningful and valuable for successfully implementing international projects. Even though the risks can not be completely eliminated while operating the projects, the risks can be identified based on the theory of risk management. And, though there are large quantities of risks which will go against the project, we can not ignore the risks which will possibly bring benefits to the project, such as, the currency and the price of raw material; the fluctuation of currency and the price of raw material can possibly cause cost increasing of the project or bring unexpected benefits to the project. If we can use suitable method to evaluate the risk, we will be able to make sufficient preparations and corresponding emergency plans to lead the effect of the risk to protect the project and even increase the benefits. Risk has two different sides, both good and bad. Unfortunately, at present, most of Chinese international project contractors have not realized the importance of studying and taking advantage of this kind of “good” risk. Lots of contractors are only trying to understand and deal with the risk while operating the project rather than making conclusions and battening down the hatches. The forming of various risks is the cumulative consequence of the effect of certain objective environment; however, there are certain rules. If there are some mature risk identification and corresponding defensive experiences, then there will certainly be fewer losses in international project. Thus, this essay is based on the past experiences of the author, which will mainly study on the risk management in international project, aim at setting up a risk management system, as well as propose the list of major risks in international projects and corresponding solutions. On the basis of theory discussion, along with the practical working experience of Sudan project, this essay hopes to bring in some effective risk warning and defensive strategy, as well as offer some references for other Chinese international project contractors. Key words： International thermal power plant project, Sudan project, risk management,
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