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论文编号：	35
作者编号：	2120051892
上传时间：	2007/6/20 23:12:32
中文题目：	基于财务可持续增长的现金股利问
英文题目：	Study on Cash Dividend on the
指导老师：	周宝源
中文关键字：	财务可持续增长,现金股利,增长管
英文关键字：	Financial sustainable growthC
中文摘要：	在竞争日趋激烈的市场环境下，我国企业增长长期发展能力、取得持久竞争优势、实现可持续发展是目前亟待解决的问题。基业长青的企业群体是一国经济稳定与持续发展的前提和基础，因此用可持续发展的战略思想指导企业理财将具有很强的现实意义。企业要追求长足发展，必须以财务资源为限，实现平衡增长。 2000及2001年证监会出台了一系列政策，鼓励支付现金股利，使得派现公司数量、比例均有大幅提升，越来越多的上市公司选择派发现金股利，在这样的大背景下，对现金股利的研究就很有必要了。以往对现金股利的研究主要围绕其影响因素和市场反应来展开的，而本文则选择从财务可持续增长的角度出发来研究现金股利与其之间的相关性。 本文以财务可持续增长理论与股利理论为指导，采用规范和实证研究相结合的方式来探讨问题。首先对几位学者提出的可持续增长模型的逻辑起点以及具体内涵思想进行分析，然后对比评价不同的模型，在此基础上探讨可持续增长与现金股利的相关性。一方面，管理层在制定具体的股利支付率的时候，需要充分考虑实际增长率与财务可持续增长率之间的关系，根据不同的增长问题做出适当的现金股利政策调整，增长不足时企业可以提高现金股利水平降低代理成本，增长过度时企业可以降低现金股利水平缓解资金紧缺的压力；另一方面股利支付率是财务可持续增长率的决定因素之一，所以通过调整现金股利政策，可以提高以后年度的财务可持续增长率。根据财务可持续增长与现金股利相关性的理论分析，本文提出相关的研究假设，并利用中国上市公司2004-2005年的数据，采用统计检验及多元回归的实证方法验证了上文的理论分析。研究发现，中国上市公司在调整现金股利政策的时候符合财务可持续增长思想。
英文摘要：	Nowadays, as the competition becomes more and more fierce, it is urgent for enterprises to not only build up the ability of the long-term development, but also acquire the perpetual competition advantage and achieve sustainable growth. The groups of enterprises lasting long will be the foundation of the steady economy and sustainable development in a country, so it has realistic meaning to study the corporate financing with the guidance of the strategic opinion of sustainable growth. A company, which only develops under the financial resources, can achieve long-term and perpetual growth. China Securities Regulatory Commission（CSRC）released regulations in year 2000 and 2001 that encouraging enterprises to distributing cash dividend. Since then, more and more enterprises have chosen the cash dividend. So it is really necessary to research on the cash dividend policy. There are a lot of researches on dividend policy from two aspects: the affecting factors of cash dividend policy and the responds of stock market. But the current study seldom research the dividend policy form the perspective of the sustainable growth. This thesis tried to study the correlation between the sustainable growth and the cash dividend. This thesis uses the normative and empirical way to study the problem. The thesis first introduces several sustainable growth models and gives an analysis by comparing them. Then, it discusses the correlation between the sustainable growth and the cash dividend. On the on hand, managers should give full consideration about the actual growth rate and the sustainable growth rate when to make the dividend policy. When the actual growth rate is greater than the latter, it’s better for managers to lower down the cash dividend to finance the funds needed for growth, on the contract, to increase the cash dividend to avoid idle funds. On the other hand, cash dividend is one of the sustainable growth’s affecting factors, so managers are able to narrow the next year’s gap between target growth rate and sustainable growth rate by making suitable and reasonable cash dividend. According to the analysis, the thesis studies the problem by the multi-linear regression method using the listed company’s data from year 2004 to 2005. Results show that in the china capital market, managers take the problem of sustainable growth into consideration when they make the cash dividends.
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