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论文编号：	3440
作者编号：	1120080765
上传时间：	2011/6/13 8:59:34
中文题目：	基于社交媒体的证券价值投资竞争情报获取方法研究
英文题目：	Research on Gathering Method of Competitive Intelligence Based on Social Media for Security Value Investment
指导老师：	王知津
中文关键字：	中文关键字： 证券价值投资 社交媒体 竞争情报 情报获取方法
英文关键字：	英文关键字： Security Value Investing; Social Media; Competitive Intelligence; Intelligence Gathering Method
中文摘要：	价值投资是目前主流投资流派之一。许多着名的投资家选择了价值投资的方法，获得了令人瞩目的收益。但是长期以来证券市场的各种信息不对称因素一直困扰着投资者，特别是遵循价值投资理念的个人投资者。本研究的目的是通过基于社交媒体的竞争情报方法来帮助价值投资者改变自己的信息劣势地位，从而更好地应用价值投资方法来获取理想的投资收益。 目前常用的竞争情报获取方法由于成本高昂等负面因素而不适合于中小投资机构或者个人投资者使用。本文介绍了基于社交媒体的竞争情报的基本概念、特征与情报获取方法。社交媒体作为数据源，不仅可以有效提高竞争情报的即时性和准确性，同时还可以大幅度降低竞争情报的成本。 本论文共由七章组成，其中第三、四、五、六章是论文的实质性部分。 第一章是绪论部分，介绍了本文的研究背景、研究目的、研究意义、研究内容与论文结构，以及研究方法与创新点等。 第二章回顾了本研究相关的理论，包括价值投资理论、竞争情报理论和社交媒体理论等，并对国内外相关研究的现状进行了梳理和综述。 第三章描述了基于社交媒体的竞争情报方法，介绍了社交媒体情报源的特征、基于社交媒体的竞争情报获取方式，以及如何利用包含统计功能、情感分析功能与可视化分析功能的第三方应用来提升情报分析的效率。 第四章讨论了基于社交媒体的企业价值分析竞争情报获取方法，并且从企业基本信息获取、企业经营状况研判和管理层研判等各个角度与环节对该方法的实际情报获取效果进行了检验。 第五章考察了基于社交媒体的企业成长性分析竞争情报获取方法，找出了决定成长性的竞争优势分析要素，并且实际检验如何利用基于社交媒体的竞争情报方法来对企业竞争优势的现状和竞争优势持续性进行获取。 第六章分析了基于社交媒体的投资时机选择竞争情报获取方法，探讨了投资时机选择的正确依据，并且讨论如何利用基于社交媒体的竞争情报方法来获取企业投资中的预警事件，以及如何对市场参与者的情绪进行科学的监控等。 本文的主要创新点包括： 1. 提出基于社交媒体的企业价值分析竞争情报获取方法企业价值分析是价值投资理论应用于实践的出发点。传统的价值分析方法主要依据企业公布的财务数据等公开信息来源，普通投资者处于明显的信息劣势。本文验证了基于社交媒体的企业价值分析竞争情报获取方法可以帮助投资者迅速地汇集企业重要历史信息与最新发展情况、获取消费者对于企业产品的真实感受，并且可以获取企业管理层的背景、社交圈和相互关联等各方面的重要情报，使得投资者可以更为合理地为企业价值进行评估。 2. 提出基于社交媒体的企业成长性分析竞争情报获取方法企业成长性分析是价值投资的难点，因为其中包括了对企业未来发展的预测。本文将企业未来发展前景与企业的竞争优势相联系，聚焦在企业的规模经济、用户忠诚度、品牌关注度与营销能力等方面。通过实例验证了基于社交媒体的竞争情报方法可以方便而有效地获取上述这几个方面的情报，从而帮助价值投资者对企业成长前景做出明智的分析与判断。 3. 提出基于社交媒体的投资时机选择竞争情报获取方法投资时机的选择方法体现各大主流投资理论间的本质差异。本文依据价值投资中的安全边际理论将投资时机的选择依据设定为预警事件的获取和市场参与者情绪的监测。本文验证了基于社交媒体的投资时机选择竞争情报获取方法可以迅速便捷地获取企业并购信息与管理层变动等重要投资预警事件，同时考察了基于社交媒体的竞争情报方法对市场参与者情绪监控的能力。通过对上述情报的动态全面掌握，价值投资者可以在投资时机的选择上把握先机。 通过对不同投资环节具体问题的考察，本文得出的结论为社交媒体竞争情报可以通过使用新的数据源、利用第三方应用带来的便捷手段，改进情报获取与分析的方法。社交媒体竞争情报可以在价值评估、成长性分析、时机选择等各个阶段有效改进证券价值投资的实践。社交媒体竞争情报可以解决价值投资者，特别是其中的中小价值投资者所遭遇到的证券市场信息不对称问题，有助于创造一个平等的交易与竞争环境。
英文摘要：	Value investing is one of the mainstream investment theories in the modern world. Many well-known investors chose to invest under value investing guidelines and obtained remarkable revenue. However, information asymmetry has long been a factor in the stock market which has bothered investors, especially individual value investors. The purpose of this study is to help value investors to change their information disadvantage and to obtain good return on investment with competitive intelligence gathering method based on social media. The commonly used competitive intelligence gathering method is not suitable for small investment institutions or individual investors for its negative factors such as high cost. This thesis introduced the concept, character and gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media. As a data source, not only can social media improve the real-time and accuracy, but also can greatly reduce the cost of competitive intelligence. This thesis consists of seven chapters, of which the third, fourth, fifth and sixth chapters are the substantive part. Chapter 1 is the introduction. It described the research background, purpose, significance, paper structure, research methods as well as innovation points. Chapter 2 reviewed the theories relevant to the study, including value investing theory, competitive intelligence theory and the theory of social media. Besides, the status of domestic and foreign research is also reviewed. Chapter 3 described the concept of competitive intelligence gathering method based on social media. Characteristics of social media intelligence sources are described. It also introduced how to gather competitive intelligence in social media, and how to use third-party applications which has statistical, visualization or emotional analysis functions to improve the efficiency of intelligence analysis. Chapter 4 discussed gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media for business value measuring. The result of the practical intelligence gathering of the method is tested through various angles and aspects including obtaining basic information from the enterprise, business conditions and management judging. Chapter 5 examined gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media for business growth analysis. It found out the main factors of competitive edge analysis for business growth, and tested how to gather the intelligence of status and sustained competitive advantage with gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media. Chapter 6 analyzed gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media for timing. It discussed how to explore the investment opportunities based on the correct choice, how to find early warning of incident for enterprises, and how to monitor the mood of the market participants scientifically. The main innovations of this thesis include: 1. Gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media for business value measuring is proposedEnterprise value analysis is the starting point of value investing theory. The traditional method of value analysis is based on published financial data and public information sources, thus ordinary investors are at a distinct information disadvantage. This thesis validated gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media for business value measuring can help investors quickly bring together important historical information and the latest business development status, consumers' real feeling of enterprise products, and the background social circle and interrelated areas of corporate management. In this way it can make value investors more rationally when measuring the value of the enterprise. 2. Gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media for business growth analysis is proposedAnalysis of business growth is one the most difficult parts of value investing, for it includes a forecast of the future development of enterprises. This thesis linked the prospects for future development of enterprises to competitive advantage, focusing on economies of scale in the enterprise, customer loyalty, brand awareness and marketing capabilities and so on. Examples show that gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media for business growth analysis can easily and efficiently access the information in these areas to help the value investors to make informed business growth analysis and judgments. 3. Gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media for timing is proposed. The way to choose investment opportunity reflects essential difference among major mainstream investment theories. This thesis chose alert events gathering and market participants' mood monitoring as the main factors for timing based on the margin of safety from value investing theory. This thesis proved that gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media for timing can quickly and easily access information of early-warning events such as enterprise's mergers and acquisitions and management changes. It also investigated the ability of gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media for market participants' mood monitoring. Value investors can choose the investment opportunity to grasp the opportunity by completely controlling of such dynamic information. By examining of specific issues of different investment areas, this thesis concluded that competitive intelligence based on social media can improve information access and analysis by using the new data source, and the convenient means of third-party applications. Gathering method of competitive intelligence based on social media can improve the practice in security investment through all the phases of value investing such as business value measuring, enterprise growth analysis, and investment timing.
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