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论文编号：	3357
作者编号：	2220090826
上传时间：	2011/6/9 14:59:10
中文题目：	太阳能光伏并网发电项目风险管理方法研究
英文题目：	The Study on Risk Management of Solar Photovoltaic Grid Power Generation Project
指导老师：	戚安邦教授
中文关键字：	风险管理,太阳能光伏,风险识别,风险度量
英文关键字：	risk management,photovoltaic,risk identification,risk measurement
中文摘要：	随着化石能源储藏量逐渐减少，以及人类对环境问题越来越重视，可再生能源的研究和利用也逐渐得到了重视。太阳光伏发电直接利用取之不尽、用之不竭的太阳光，并且在发电过程中几乎无任何污染，因此受到了越来越多的重视。在政策的鼓励下，我国的太阳能光伏发电项目也越来越多，然而，太阳光伏发电对我国的许多部门还是个新鲜事物，在此类项目的管理方面还存在着许多不足。对我国而言，太阳能光伏电站项目还处于初级阶段，存在政策变化大、标准体系不健全、太阳能光伏发电知识普及度不高等现象。本研究结合目前项目风险管理的相关理论，结合太阳能光伏并网发电项目的特点，引入太阳能光伏发电项目的风险管理方法。 本研究的主要内容有：通过分析太阳能光伏并网电站项目的特点，结合项目的根本目标，在此基础上分析项目的不确定事件和活动，以不确定性为基础，建立太阳能光伏系统的风险识别系统。在风险识别的基础上，对识别出的风险进行度量，对太阳能光伏并网发电项目的风险按照发生概率和危害度进行排序。根据风险度量的结果，给出了相应的风险应对措施以及风险的监控方法。 我国太阳能光伏并网发电项目目前处于示范阶段，在当前阶段，政策的风险是太阳能光伏发电项目最大的风险。上网电价是影响项目的最重要的经济指标，太阳能光伏电站的发电量也是影响项目收益的重要指标。对屋顶载荷考虑不周、对屋面防水破坏、电气部分建设是太阳能光伏发电项目最大的技术风险。风险分担、风险遏制、风险规避、风险转移、风险容忍是太阳能光伏发电项目采取的主要风险应对方法。
英文摘要：	As fossil energy reserve gradually decreases and human pay more and more attention to environmental problems, the research and use of renewable energy also gradually get attention. Due to solar photovoltaic power generation uses inexhaustible sun's energy directly and there is no any pollution during the generate process, it becoming increasingly concerned. In the policy of encouragement, there is more and more photovoltaic power generation project in China, but because photovoltaic power generation is a new thing for many government departments of our country, some deficiencies still exist in such project management. As for our country, solar photovoltaic power station project is still in the primary stage, it has some phenomena of big policy shift, imperfect standard system and not high popularity of solar photovoltaic power generation knowledge. Combining with related theory of risk management of present project and the characteristic of solar photovoltaic grid power project, the study introduces risk management methods of solar photovoltaic power project. The main contents of this study include: through characteristics analysis of solar photovoltaic grid power station project and combine with project basic goal, analysis uncertain events and activities of project, set up solar photovoltaic system risk identification system based on these uncertainties, to measure the identified risk upon the basis of risk identification and sort the risk of solar photovoltaic grid power projects in accordance with the occurrence probability and harm degree. According to the measurement result of risk, provide corresponding measures of risk and risk monitoring method. Solar photovoltaic grid power project in our country is at a demonstration stage, the policy risk is the most influential risk of solar photovoltaic power project in present stage. On-grid power tariff is the most important economic indicators in influence on the solar photovoltaic power station project and the generated energy is also an important index of influence on the solar photovoltaic power station project income. In addition, all of the thoughtless of roof load, roofing waterproof layer damage and electric parts construction are the largest technology risk of solar photovoltaic power projects. Risk sharing, risk curb, risk aversion, risk transfer and risk tolerance are the main methods which solar photovoltaic power projects take to respond to the risks.
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