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论文编号：	3327
作者编号：	2120092367
上传时间：	2011/6/7 22:30:15
中文题目：	商业银行对上市房地产企业信用风险
英文题目：	A Study on the Measurement and Management of Commercial Bank to the Credit Risk of Listed Real Estate Enterprises
指导老师：	王永进
中文关键字：	商业银行 信用风险度量 房地产 KMV模型
英文关键字：	commercial bank credit risk measurement real estate KMV model
中文摘要：	中文摘要 近年来，房地产行业在巨大的存量需求拉动下迅猛发展，融资体制不断得到发育和成长。然而房地产行业信贷仍然存在较为突出的问题，表现为过分依赖银行融资、不良贷款率高。到目前为止，国内房地产企业的融资基本上是以银行信贷为主。房地产信贷占款规模巨大，使银行对房地产信贷的依赖程度较高，成为风险转嫁对象，一旦房地产泡沫升级破灭，最终兜底的将是商业银行。商业银行对加强房地产行业的信贷风险管理破在眉睫。 房地产信用风险管理研究主要分为两类，房地产企业信用风险管理和个人住房抵押信用风险管理，其中以对后者的研究为主。并且对房地产企业信贷风险研究多停留在宏观、定性的分析层面，无法使评价结果达到一个更精准的水平，房地产企业信用风险度量研究还不能满足当前房地产市场信用体系建设的迫切要求。 本研究将房地产企业的信用风险作为主要的研究对象，通过对上市房地产企业的信用风险进行实证度量分析，为商业银行如何实现信用风险量化管理及防控房地产企业信用风险给予可行性建议。本文综合运用logistic回归模型以及KMV模型对国内上市房地产企业信用风险进行了度量研究，提出信用风险小的企业具有较大的违约距离，在财务数据中表现为有较好的盈利性、发展性以及比较大规模；信用风险大的企业违约距离较小，在财务数据中表现为盈利性和发展性指标较差，并且通常不具备较大的规模和风险承受能力的结论。本文综合实证结果提出了针对性建议，对银行加强房地产企业信用风险控制有借鉴性意义。
英文摘要：	Abstract In recent years, the real estate industry has been developing rapidly driven by huge demand in the market, and its financing system has also been growing continuously. However, there are still prominent problems in the credit of the real estate industry such as over-reliance on banks and high rate of non-performing loans. So far, the financing of domestic real estate enterprises have mainly relied on bank credit. Large-scale real estate credit makes the bank become a risk transfer object. Once the real estate bubble bursts, commercial banks will bear most of the risk. It is urgent and important to enhance credit risk management of the real estate industry to commercial banks. The studies on credit risk management of real estate are divided into two categories, the real estate business credit risk and individual housing mortgage credit risk, the latter of which is the main. Most of the studies on real estate business credit risk are macro and qualitative. This method can not make the evaluation results accurate. So studies on the real estate business credit risk can not meet the urgent requirement of the construction of credit system in current estate market. In this study, the author mainly concerns on the risk of real estate business credit. By empirical analysis on the listed real estate companies, the author put forward feasible proposals to banks on how to quantify and manage the credit risk of real estate business. This paper analyzes the credit risk of domestic listed real estate companies by logistic regression model and KMV model. The final conclusion is that good performance corporations have larger distance to default, better profitability, better growth and larger scale. On the contrary, poor performance corporations have smaller distance to default, poorer profitability, poorer growth and smaller scale. This paper presents specific recommendations to the banks about how to strengthen the control of real estate business credit risk.
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