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论文编号：	3220
作者编号：	2120092428
上传时间：	2011/6/5 2:26:35
中文题目：	PPP模式项目的动态风险管理研究
英文题目：	A Study on Dynamic Risk Management of PPP Mode Projects
指导老师：	戚安邦
中文关键字：	PPP模式项目；项目风险；项目风险管理
英文关键字：	PPP mode projects;Project risk;Project risk management
中文摘要：	PPP模式自诞生以来，在世界上主要发达国家和部分发展中国家得到了广泛应用，但是由于PPP模式的独特性和复杂性，也使得项目风险管理问题成为项目成败的关键问题。随着我国经济社会的持续快速发展和经济体制改革的逐步深化，PPP模式在我国公共基础设施项目领域的应用前景非常广阔，因此对PPP模式项目风险管理进行系统的研究，以更加有效地开展项目的风险管理，使PPP模式在我国公共基础设施项目领域得到更有效的利用。 本文综合采用文献调查、归纳、分析、模型研究的方法，对PPP模式项目的风险管理问题进行研究，对PPP模式项目动态风险管理的涵义和特征进行了分析，建立了PPP模式项目动态风险管理的框架。在此基础上，着眼于项目风险管理的过程，分别建立了项目风险识别、度量、分配、应对和监控的动态管理模型，使之成为一个周而复始、持续、动态的过程，以实现项目风险的动态管理。本文的研究结论主要有以下几点： 第一，PPP模式主要应用于公路、铁路、电厂、城市公用设施等公共基础设施项目领域，因此相对于一般工程项目而言，投资建设规模大、时间跨度长、参与方众多、责权利关系复杂，面临的风险更为复杂多样，风险周期更长，因此表现出更高的不确定性和更明显的动态变化性，更需要对PPP模式项目实施动态的风险管理。 第二，对PPP模式项目实施动态的风险管理需要在项目的整个生命周期内，综合考虑PPP模式项目全生命周期各个阶段的连续性、项目风险管理各个过程的持续性以及项目风险管理方法和工具的多样性，在项目整个生命周期的不同阶段，运用相应的风险管理方法和工具，持续不断地进行项目风险的识别、度量、分配、应对和监控，才能不断识别和度量新的风险、合理地分配风险、制定风险应对计划并全程监控，及时进行动态的修正和调整，以有效降低不利事件发生的概率和影响，提高有利事件发生的概率和影响，最大限度地保证项目目标的实现。PPP模式项目动态的风险管理除了具备持续性、循环性、并行性、偶发性、动态性等共性特征外，还表现出项目风险分配的阶段性、项目风险管理主体的差异性等自身的特征。 第三，在对PPP模式项目动态风险管理的涵义和特征进行分析的基础上，着眼于项目风险管理的过程，分别建立了PPP模式项目风险识别、度量、分配、应对和监控的动态管理模型，以实现在PPP模式项目在全生命周期内对风险进行动态的管理。
英文摘要：	PPP mode has been widely used since its birth in the world's major developed countries and some developing countries．But due to PPP mode's uniqueness and complexity，it makes project risk management one of the the key issues of the project's success．With China's sustained and rapid economic and social development and the gradual deepening of economic reform，the application of PPP mode in the field of public infrastructure projects is more and more extentive．Therefore，systematic research of risk management of PPP mode projecs in order to carry out project risk management more effectively，can make the PPP mode in the field of public infrastructure projects in China be more effectively used． In this paper the author uses literature survey，summarization，analysis，modeling approach to study risk management of PPP mode projects and analyze the meaning and characteristics of the dynamic risk management of PPP mode projects，establish the framework of dynamic risk management of PPP mode projects．On the basis of this framework the author，focusing on project risk management process，establishes risk identification,measurement，distribution，response and monitoring model，making it a cycle，continuous，dynamic process，in order to manage project risks dynamically．The main conclusions of this paper are as follows： First，PPP mode is mainly used in highways，railways，power plants，urban public facilities and other areas of public infrastructure projects．Compare to general projects，PPP mode projects are larger in investment and construction，have longer time span and have more participants．Accordingly，the risks of PPP mode projects are more complex and diverse and show higher uncertainty and the dynamic changes are more obvious．As a result，it's more necessary for PPP mode projects to manage risks dynamically． Second，dynamic risk management of PPP mode projects refers to use the appropriate risk management methods and tools to carry out project risk identification，measurement，distribution，response and monitoring continuously throughout the project life cycle，considering the continuity of all stages throughout the whole life cycle of PPP mode projects，the persistence of all procedures of project risk management and the diversity of methods and tools for project risk management，in order to reduce the probability and impact of adverse events and improve the probability and impact of favorable events，with minimal risk management costs to maximize the project objectives．The dynamic management of the risks of PPP mode projects shows common features such as continuity，circularity， parallelism，sporadicness，dynamic，in addition，it also shows its own characteristics such as the phased distribution of project risks，difference of project risk management executors． Third，on the basis of analyzing the meaning and characteristics of the dynamic risk management of PPP mode projects，focusing on project risk management process，the author establishes risk identification，measurement，distribution，response and monitoring model，making it a cycle，continuous，dynamic process，in order to manage project risks dynamically．
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