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论文编号：	3156
作者编号：	2120092293
上传时间：	2011/6/2 20:06:06
中文题目：	基于事件图的非常规突发事件研究——以地震为例
英文题目：	The Study on Unconventional Emergence based on Event Graph：a Case of Earthquake
指导老师：	李勇建
中文关键字：	突发事件;非常规突发事件;事件图;应急决策
英文关键字：	Emergency;Unconventional Emergency;Event Graph;Emergency Decision
中文摘要：	近年来，全球非常规突发事件频发，严重地威胁着人类的人身安全和财产安全，影响着社会稳定和发展。由于非常规突发事件发生频率低，人类没有经历或者极少经历，多数当事人应对知识是空白的。所以，一旦发生非常规突发事件，往往造成严重破坏。因此，研究非常规突发事件演化机理和应急决策就显得非常必要而有意义。 本文首先通过大量总结已有的关于突发事件的定义，明确界定了突发事件这一概念，给出了突发事件的两大核心特征，之后，文章给出了突发事件两大核心特征的衡量指标。在明确界定突发事件后，本文又对非常规突发事件进行了界定，同样给出了非常规突发事件的核心特征和衡量指标。最后，利用文中提出的关于非常规突发事件的界定方法和衡量指标对一些突发事件案例进行了分析、归类，证明本文中提出的界定方法和衡量指标是合理的。 在明确界定非常规突发事件的基础上，本文大量收集1949年以来发生在中国的地震案例，然后对这些案例进行整理和统计，总结出地震这类非常规突发事件的一系列次生事件，然后利用事件图对地震这类非常规突发事件的演化机理进行了研究，构建了地震这类非常规突发事件的事件图。其他类型的非常规突发事件的事件图构建方法与此类似。 本文还研究了非常规突发事件的应急决策过程。首先，针对事件图中的条件可以提取非常规突发事件应急决策的备选方案，任何备选方案都是针对事件图中的条件作出的。之后就可以计算每个备选方案所需各种资源的数量以及该备选方案的收益。最后，在获得完整的非常规突发事件应急决策备选方案的规范化描述之后，在资源有限的条件下，利用随机规划可以对非常规突发事件的备选方案进行优化选择，以便获得最佳的应急管理效果。最后通过总结上述应急决策的过程，给出了基于事件图的非常规突发事件应急决策的全过程示意图。
英文摘要：	In recent years, various unconventional emergencies occur frequently in the world. These unconventional emergencies seriously threaten the human’s safety and property security and destroy the stability and development of the society. Since the frequency of unconventional emergency is very low, so human have no experience or very little experience to deal with the emergency. That is to say, the knowledge of how to deal with the occuring emergency should be empty to most people. So if the unconventional emergency occurs, it will often cause serious damage. Therefore, it is very necessary and meaningful to research the evolution mechanism and response decision-making of unconventional emergency. First, this thesis clearly defines the concept of emergency, through summarizing a lot of the existing definition of emergency. In this thesis, we give out two core characteristics of the emergency, and then we study how to measure the two core characteristics. After we clearly defined emergency, this thesis defines the concept of unconventional emergencies, similarly, we give out the core characteristics and the methods of metrics. Finally, we analyse some emergency cases to validate the proposed definition and the method of metrics. On the basis of clearly defining unconventional emergency, we collected a large amount of great earthquake cases which occurred in china since 1949. Later, we summarize a series of secondary events through doing some collating and statistics work to these cases. Then we take use of the “event graph” to study the evolution mechanism of earthquake and establish the event graph of such unconventional emergency. The establishment method of other type of emergency is similar to the above method. This thesis also studies the response decision-making process of unconventional emergency. First, the response decision to unconventional emergency can be extracted from the conditions of event graph. After that, we can calculate the quantity of rescue resources required and the gains for every decision. Finally, after having the complete description of response decision, in order to obtain the best results of emergency management, we can use stochastic programming to optimize the emergency decision-making under the condition that the rescue resources is limited. At the end of this thesis, we sum up the above emergency decision-making process and give the diagram of the whole process of emergency decision-making based on event graph.
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