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论文编号：	3010
作者编号：	2220090968
上传时间：	2011/3/29 15:28:38
中文题目：	长征运载火箭发射项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Launch Project Risk Management of Long March Launching Vehicle
指导老师：	戚安邦
中文关键字：	关键词：长征运载火箭 发射项目 风险管理 风险因素 工作流程
英文关键字：	Key words: Long march launching vehicle，Launch project, Risk management， Risk factors, Workflow.
中文摘要：	摘要 运载火箭发射是航天工程中的一个独特项目，由于其技术和组织管理的复杂性、危险源多和关键流程不可逆等特点，因此它被公认为是高风险项目。六十多年来，世界现代航天史上经历了上百次运载火箭发射失败，长征运载火箭也曾有多次发射失败的惨痛教训。随着我国航天事业的飞速发展，长征运载火箭面临着高密度、批发射和高精度入轨的新形势和新要求，研究建立严密、高效的风险管理模式和技术方法，对形成永葆成功的长效机制具有重要的意义。 本文在充分调研、总结国内外运载火箭发射项目风险管理理论和实践经验的基础上，利用收集到的国内外火箭发射失败的典型案例，分析了导致运载火箭发射失败的主要风险因素；结合长征运载火箭发射项目的特点与未来发展需求，针对当前风险管理工作中存在的不足，研究提出了基于长征运载火箭发射项目目标的风险管理目标分解和确定方法、组织岗位职责设置、工作原则和基于项目风险活动、活动输出与活动控制项相对应的风险控制工作流程，以及基于线索的多因素交集风险识别方法、定性评估方法、分级分类方案及处置策略；归纳总结了重大风险的防范措施和应急预案；并配套设计了风险管理工作流程表、基于线索的多因素交集风险识别表和风险信息跟踪卡。
英文摘要：	Abstract Rocket launching is an unique space engineering project with high risk recognized, because it include many hazard sources and irreversible essential flows, and complexity of technology and organization management. The world has experienced over a hundred launch aborts in modern astronautics history of more than sixty years, including several launch abort's deeply grieved lessons of Long March Launching Vehicle. Along with astronautics enterprise's rapid evolution in our country, and facing high density and batch of launch as well as requirement of higher accuracy orbit injection, a systemic research to establish strict, highly effective risk management pattern and qualitative evaluation methods for Long March Launching Vehicle, has great significance for forming a persistent effective mechanism to preserve forever successful. In this thesis, domestic and foreign rocket launch project risk management theories and their experiences are fully investigated as study foundation, the main risk factors lead to launch abort are analyzed by using many illustrative cases collected also. Combining with the launch project characteristics, the future development trends of the launch projects of Long March Launching Vehicle, and the current disparity and the insufficiency existed, the research proposed a risk management objectives decomposition method based on the launch project control goals, which cleared up the organizations of the duty and the work principles and the workflow, in concern of the corresponded responsibilities of their project risk activities and their work outputs, as well as clue-based multi-factor intersect risk identification method, qualitative assessment method, the responsible classification and handling strategy. The precautions and the main contingency plans for critical risks are summarized. The sheets of risk management workflow and clue-based multi-factor risk identification and the risk information card are also designed in order to track the risk’s mental state changes.
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