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论文编号：	2860
作者编号：	043205
上传时间：	2010/12/10 21:51:06
中文题目：	台湾资本市场波动性对失业率影响之研究
英文题目：	Study of Capital Market Fluctuation’s Impact on Unemployment Rate in Taiwan Area
指导老师：	齐寅峰
中文关键字：	台湾地区、失业问题、资本市场、实证研究
英文关键字：	Taiwan area、unemployment problem、capital market、empirical test
中文摘要：	失业问题是市场经济发展过程中不可避免的一种经济现象，失业的存在不仅导致人力资本的浪费，影响经济的发展，而且会引发分配不公、社会动荡等一系列社会问题，因此，失业治理一直是各国政府关注的焦点，同时也是经济学研究的一个重要领域。 长期以来，许多西方的经济学家对失业问题进行了深入研究，由此产生了各种流派的失业理论，不同的失业理论对失业的原因、机理及失业治理从不同角度提出了不同的观点。失业与金融市场作为衡量一个国家或地区宏观经济运行状况的基本经济指标，历来受到理论界的高度关注与重视，在这两个领域取得了颇丰的研究成果。但是，在20世纪以前，金融市场与失业一直被视为两个独立的领域进行研究，关于金融市场与失业之间的联系，长期被经济学家所忽略。到目前为止，两者之间的联系仍然没有得到深入的研究。本文在各国经济受到美国金融危机冲击、失业状况恶化的背景下，以台湾地区为研究对象，研究了资本市场的波动与失业的关系，相关研究将推动这方面的研究，研究成果对台湾失业的治理可以借鉴。 本研究共分为六章。第一章为导论，说明论文的研究动机、研究意义及研究方法，并介绍论文的结构安排和文章的创新之处；第二章为文献综述，分别就现有的失业理论研究及资本市场与失业之间关系的研究进行文献综述，为本文的研究提供前期理论基础；第三章为相关背景分析，对台湾有关失业的经济环境及制度背景进行分析，为本文理论模型的构建提供现实基础；第四章以台湾的经济背景为基础，建立一个小型开放经济的理论模型，研究资本市场与失业之间的关系；第五章为实证研究，先采用协整方法对理论模型进行协整分析，以认定模型中各种变量的长期反应，并以协整分析的结果进行脉冲反应分析。根据协整及脉冲反应分析，提出资本市场波动与总体失业率之间关系的假设，并以多元回归的方式进行实证检验。第六章为研究结论、不足与政策建议。 本文研究的创新主要包括三个方面： 1．建立一个适合台湾特征的小型开放经济的动态经济模型 在对台湾失业制度背景分析的基础上，结合台湾的具体经济特征，提出建立模型的假设，构建了一个小型开放经济下的动态经济模型，该模型中考虑了商品市场、劳动市场、外汇市场和金融市场的均衡，在多个市场同时达到均衡的情况下，设立了总供给函数，并得到在此函数关系下的菲力普斯曲线。与现有的理论相比，本文建立的模型更适合台湾的经济特征，从而为研究台湾的失业问题提供了理论基础。 2．针对建立的经济模型进行协整分析和脉冲反应分析，发现各变量影响失业的作用机理 本文的模型采用失业的连锁反应理论(CRT)的观点，将动态变量的变化看成是摩擦（延时调整）和增长相互作用的摩擦增长，以未限制的对数线性VAR模型的长期或误差修正关系推导出包含结构长期关系的协整VAR模型，以进一步检验这些协整关系的存在和长期经济理论隐含的过度认定限制。此种结构VECM做法最大的特色在于考虑了依据经济理论的长期关系和实证上可行的短期动态限制，这是现有的大多数总体计量经济建模所没有考虑的。在协整分析的基础之上，通过冲击反应分析短期的动态关系。本文的分析，更能清楚地表现失业与各种冲击变量之间的动态关系。 3．将金融指标与失业率联系起来，检验台湾资本市场的波动性与失业率之间的关系 本文在理论研究的基础之上，提出了资本市场各指标与失业率之间关系的假设，并结合台湾的金融数据及宏观经济数据，实证检验了台湾资本市场波动对台湾失业率的影响，发现台湾资本市场波动是导致劳动力市场的重要因素，该项研究从研究视角及研究结论上具有创新性。
英文摘要：	The unemployment issue is an inevitable economic phenomenon during the development process of the market economy. The existence of unemployment causes not only the wasting of the human capital，affecting the economic development，but also the unfair distribution and a series of social perturbation problems and so on. Therefore, the governance of unemployment has been the focus which every government concentrate on，at the same time，also is an important economic research field. In the long run, many western economists have conducted much detailed research on the unemployment issue; therefore there are many schools of unemployment theory. The different unemployment theories explain the causes, mechanisms and governance of unemployment on the different viewpoints from the different directions. The issues of unemployment and the financial market are considered as the basic economic indicators of measuring the macroeconomic performance of one country or area，always receive the academics’ high attention and seriousness，obtaining the quite abundant research results between these two fields. Nonetheless, before the 20th century, the financial market issue and the unemployment issue have been taken as two independent research fields, the link between the financial market and the unemployment has been neglected by the economists for a long time. So far, the above link between the two had still not obtained the thorough research on. This dissertation on the relation between the fluctuation of the capital market and unemployment of Taiwan area under the background of the American financial crisis and the worsen unemployment situation impact on every country in the world. The related research will impel this field research and the research results concerning the governance of Taiwanese unemployment will be to use for reference. This dissertation comprises of 6 chapters. Chapter one is the introduction, explaining the research motivation，implication and method, and introducing the structure and the innovation of this dissertation. Chapter two describes the related literature reviews concerning the current unemployment theories research and the research on the relation between the capital market and unemployment, taken as an preceding theoretical foundation of this dissertation. Chapter three is the related background analysis on the economic environment and institution of Taiwan's unemployment, as a reality foundation of constructing this theoretical model. Chapter four constructs a small open economy theoretical model based on the Taiwan's economy, studying on the relation between the capital market and unemployment. Chapter five is the empirical studies, first on the cointegration analysis of theoretical model by adapting the cointegration approach, for identifying the long-run impulses of the model variables in order to perform the impulse response analysis of the cointegration result. According to the cointegration and impulse response analysis, we propose the assumed relation between the capital market fluctuation and the macro unemployment rate; furthermore, we run the empirical testing by the multi-regression method. Chapter six is the research conclusion, deficiency and policy suggestions. The contributions of this dissertation comprise three directions: 1. Constructing one proper small open economy dynamic macroeconomic model, suiting Taiwan's characteristics. Based on the foundation of the Taiwan's unemployment institution analysis, combining the embodied Taiwan's economic characteristics, we propose the model assumptions，constructing a small open economy dynamic macroeconomic model, discussing the equilibriums of the commodity market, labor market, foreign exchange market and financial market, deriving the aggregate supply function under the situation of simultaneously attaining the equilibriums of many markets, deriving the Phillips curve from this functional form. Compared with the existed theories, our constructing model is more suitable for Taiwan's economic characteristics; moreover, being a theoretical foundation of studying on the Taiwan's unemployment issue. 2. Focusing on the cointegration analysis and the impulse response analysis based on the constructed economic model, discovering the mechanism of variables affecting unemployment. We accept the viewpoint of the chain reaction theory of unemployment and take the changes of dynamic variables as the frictional growth of the interaction of friction （deferred adjustment） and growth, via the long-run or error corrected relationship of the unrestricted log-linear VAR model, in order to derive the cointegrated VAR model including the structural long-run relationship, and to test the existence of these cointegration relationship and the over-identifying restrictions implied in the long-run economic theory. The great feature of this structural VECM approach depends on the long-run relationships based on economic theory and the short-run dynamic restrictions empirically plausible, which is the absence in the many current macroeconometric modellings. Based on the foundation of the cointegration analysis, we analyze the short-run dynamic relationships by impulse response analysis. Our analysis can clearly show the dynamic relationships between the unemployment and every impulse variable. 3. Linking the financial indicators and unemployment rate, to test the relationships between the capital market fluctuations and unemployment rate of Taiwan. Based on the foundation of the theoretical research, we propose the assumptions of the relationships between the capital market indictors and unemployment rate, combining with the Taiwan's financial and macroeconomic data, and test empirically the impact of the Taiwan's capital market fluctuations on the Taiwan's unemployment rate. We find the important fluctuated factor is Taiwan's capital market fluctuation，which is the innovation embodied on the research viewpoint and result.
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