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论文编号：	282
作者编号：	2220070672
上传时间：	2009/6/5 13:40:24
中文题目：	石化工程EPC总承包项目风险识别
英文题目：	The method Research of Risk Id
指导老师：	杨坤
中文关键字：	石化工程;EPC模式;风险识别;风险
英文关键字：	Petrochemical Engineering;EPC
中文摘要：	目前，世界上许多国家在工程总承包市场上越来越倾向于使用EPC方式承发包大型工程项目。与传统的承发包方式相比，总承包商在 EPC项目的实施过程中承担着更多的风险因素。我国自20世纪80年代引进EPC工程总承包模式以来，首先在建筑业实施，随后扩展延伸应用到石化和电力等大型项目。目前国际上已经形成一套比较完善的风险管理体系，而我国EPC工程总承包模式的风险管理研究尚处于起步阶段。 与其他项目相比，石化工程EPC总承包项目具有装置投资大、建设周期长、参与者众多等特点，使其在项目周期内存在较多的不确定性。如果不能有效的管理该类项目的风险，将会给项目相关利益主体造成各种各样的损失，甚至直接导致项目失败。 本文详细归纳了风险管理的基本理论，特别是风险识别和风险分析方法。站在EPC总承包商的立场，针对石化行业项目的特点，提出了按照风险来源进行系统分类，采用故障树法对风险进行识别，基于层次分析法对风险进行分析，确定项目的总体风险情况和风险重要性排序。结合具体项目实例，研究了故障树法和层次分析法在石化工程EPC总承包项目风险管理中的应用，提出了石化工程EPC总承包项目风险识别和分析的基本思路。希望研究结果对目前的石化工程EPC总承包项目风险管理有一定参考价值。
英文摘要：	At present,more and more large international projects are contracted by EPC (Engineering-Procurement-Construction)mode in many countries.Compared with traditional contract modes,the EPC contractors face more risks.EPC mode has been operated in constrution field since 1980s.And it was widely used in Petrochemical industry and electric power industry later. A better system of risk management has come into being in many countries,but the study about the risk management of EPC mode is still at the initial stage in China. Compared with other projects,the characteristics of EPC projects for Petrochemical Engineering are huge scale of investment, long construction cycle, many different participants, which lead more uncertainty and project risks in the life cycle of projects. If risks can’t be managed effectively, it will cause the participants a variety of loss，even affect realization of projects. The thesis summarized the basic theory of risk management in detail,especially the methods to identify and analyse project risks.On the standpoint of EPC contractors, according to the characteristics of EPC projects for Petrochemical Engineering, the risks were classified in accordance with risk sources.And the thsis researched the FTA and AHP with which to identify and analyse project risks to confirm the overall project risks and the risk importance ranking.Later the thesis researched the application of FTA and AHP in EPC projects for Petrochemical Engineering by a case study.Hope the result of study make a contribution to the project risk management of EPC projects for Petrochemical Engineering.
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