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论文编号：	2645
作者编号：	1120060710
上传时间：	2010/6/20 11:07:01
中文题目：	项目挣值管理理论与方法改进研究
英文题目：	Research on Improvement of the Theory and Methods of Project Earned Value Management
指导老师：	戚安邦
中文关键字：	项目挣值管理；配置关系；项目集成管理
英文关键字：	Project Earned Value Management; configuration relations; Project Integration Management
中文摘要：	项目集成管理是现代项目管理中非常重要的领域。由于项目集成管理工具和技术的缺乏使得项目集成管理理论和方法发展缓慢，存在很多问题，需要人们在项目集成管理技术和方法方面进行深入的研究，这正是本文研究的出发点。 从项目集成管理的发展现状来看，只有项目挣值管理理论和方法相对成熟。项目挣值管理方法通过引入中间变量“挣值”来实现对项目时间和成本的集成管理。具体而言，在项目绩效度量时点，人们通过项目计划成本与挣值的比较来了解项目进度方面的信息，通过项目实际成本与挣值的比较来了解项目成本方面的信息，并在此基础上采取相应措施来对项目成本与工期进行集成管理从而实现项目成本与工期两方面的目标。项目挣值管理方法在项目管理实践中受到广泛认可，但是依然存在很多问题。 由于项目挣值管理理论和方法是由美国国防部基于国防项目需要而开发的，因为国防项目对项目质量和项目时间的严格限定使得由此开发出的项目挣值管理理论和方法存在项目质量和时间要素优先的假定，这种假定对于时间要素优先的项目而言是适用的，但是当项目成本要素优先或者项目的成本要素与时间要素同等重要时就不再适用，因此现有的项目挣值管理理论和方法存在很多问题。本文在深入分析项目挣值管理理论原理、发展历程以及国内外学者研究成果的基础上力图构建一套满足一般项目需要的项目时间和成本集成管理方法。本文的研究以规范的研究方法论为指导，运用系统的原理和方法，系统归纳项目挣值管理理论和方法的基本思想和主要观点，结合目前项目挣值管理实践者的经验、教训和体会，分析现有项目挣值管理理论和方法中存在的问题，并采用比较研究法比较分析不同理论假定条件下的项目情况，在此基础上采用演绎推理法提出了适合一般项目的项目挣值管理理论和方法，同时采用案例研究的方法对本文的研究成果进行了实证分析。 本文提出基于配置关系的项目集成管理原理和分步集成方法，并从项目挣值管理的理论假定入手，深入分析项目挣值管理理论中的要素关系，在限定项目质量要素的基础上对项目挣值管理方法最为基础也是最为重要的四个方面进行了研究，分别为以下四个方面：项目挣值管理基本指标的完善，项目挣值管理绩效度量基线的完善、项目挣值管理预测方法的完善以及项目挣值管理控制数据结构构建方法的完善。 本文的主要研究成果和创新点如下。 1.更新了现有项目挣值管理的理论假定 现有项目挣值管理虽然定义为项目成本、进度与质量的集成管理方法，但在其理论和方法中暗含的假定是项目进度和质量确定条件下进行的项目成本管理与控制。本文在研究中将项目成本与进度两者均视为灵活的变量来进行处理，即根据项目的具体情况，按照项目成本与进度的配置关系进行项目成本与进度的集成管理。对于现有项目挣值管理理论体系而言，理论假定的修正是从根本上对项目挣值管理理论的创新。 2.修正了项目挣值管理进度和成本指标 项目挣值管理成本指标和进度指标是项目挣值管理方法最为基础的内容。在现有项目挣值管理中，由于项目进度确定假定的存在，使得项目进度指标依赖价值量的度量，存在很多问题，在需要准确度量进度的项目中难以发挥应有的作用。本文研究提出的项目挣值管理进度指标能够对项目进度和时间进行准确度量并作为预测和项目决策的基础；另外，独立的进度指标可以和成本指标一起作为项目变量进行分析，并由此形成了项目成本/进度集成管理的基础。本文还对现有项目挣值管理理论中的成本指标进行了修正，使其能够更为科学地反映项目成本信息。 3.完善了项目绩效度量基准确定方法 项目挣值管理绩效度量基准确定是项目挣值管理方法对项目进行控制的基础，也是项目管理研究者一个非常重要的研究主题。由于项目挣值管理对于项目详尽计划的要求和项目本身不确定性之间的矛盾使得项目挣值管理绩效基线一直是项目挣值管理方法体系中的难点。本文提出了初始绩效基线制定的方法和在实施过程中基线变更的方法，对于现有项目挣值管理而言是一个较大的创新和补充。 4.完善了项目挣值管理预测方法 项目预测是项目挣值管理非常重要的职能，通过对项目未来状况的预测可以提前做好项目资源准备和相应的项目决策。本文提出了基于跟踪评估和不确定性分析的项目预测方法，并在提出新的项目进度指标的基础上采用累积指标和时点指标相结合的动态预测方法对项目未来成本和未来时间进行预测，大大提高了预测的准确性和科学性。 总之，本文在提出新的理论假定的基础上通过以上四个主要方面的研究从而构建了较为完善的项目挣值管理理论和方法。
英文摘要：	Project integration management is an very important area in project management. However, the inadequate tools and techniques have impeded the development of the theory. Therefore, we need to do further research of it. Among the theories of project integration management, project earned value management is the comparatively mature. By introducing intermediate variable of ‘earned value’, project earned value management integrates the management of project schedule and cost. To be more specific, at the moment of project measurement, we obtain the information of project progress by comparing the planned cost and the earned value and information of cost by comparing actual cost and earned value. One the result, corresponding methods are taken to integratedly management the project time and cost in order to achieve the goals of project cost and time. Project earned value management has been accepted widely in project management practice, yet problem still remains in this area. Project earned value management theory and method were developed by U.S. Department of Defense for the need of national defense projects. The strict quality and time regulations of national defense projects make the project earned value management theory and method have a premise that project quality and schedule are of the highest priority. This premise is conformed to the similar projects in which project time is the most important. However, in projects where project cost is more or as same important with time, it is not the case. From the analysis, we see the problems exist in the theory. This paper develops a universal method which satisfies project time and cost integration management demand at the basis of fully understanding the principle of project earned value management, history of theory development and recent research results. The research concludes the basic theory and core viewpoint of the Earned Value Management and analyzes the problems of existing theory and method of project earned value management using systemic principle and method with the normative methodology. Comparing research method is used to analyze project complexion in different assumptions; theoretical evolvement method is used to develop the theory and method of Earned Value Management for all projects; and case study is used to prove the conclusion. So this research is a complexity system research of different specialty. The paper brings forward integration management principles based on configuration relationship and the integration method of step by step. The paper also analyzes the restrictions to the existing earned value management theory and researches the most important and basic four areas which are on the base of the certain quality. The four areas are as follow: the cost and schedule indicators of Project Earned Value Management, improvement of the Project Earned Value Management performance measurement baseline , improvement of project management earned value forecasting method ,and the method of establishing project data structures. The main results and innovation of the research are as follow: 1. Update the assumptions of existing Project Earned Value Management theory Although the current definition of the Project Earned Value Management is an integration management method about project cost, schedule and quality, it is substantively a method of project cost management under the certain schedule and quality. The research sets both project cost and schedule as flexible and variable , that is, according to the specific circumstances of the project, we can manage integratedly project in term of the configuration relationship of the project cost and schedule. The improvement of theory premise is a fundamental innovation for the existing Earned Value Management theoretical system . 2. Update and interpret further the cost and schedule indicators of the Project Earned Value Management The cost indicators and schedule indicators are the base of Project Earned Value Management. Because of the premise of set project schedule in the existing theory the schedule indicators dependent on cost indicators to measure, which makes many problems. The existing schedule indicators can’t measure the project progress accurately. This research proposes new schedule indicators which can easily measure and forecast project schedule. It will help project managers analyze and make decision availability. The unattached schedule indicators and cost indicators compose the base of the project cost/schedule integration management. The paper also improvement the cost indicator for a more scientific picture of project cost information. 3. innovation of the method for project performance measurement baseline Project Earned Value Management performance measurement baseline is not only the base of project control ,but also a very important research topic for project management researchers. The Project Earned Value Management method requirements for detailed plan, while project is uncertainty inherently. The contradiction makes it very difficult to establish a veracious baseline. The research develops new approach to establish the initial baseline and modify the baseline as the progress of progress and change. It is an important innovation and additions to the existing methods. 4. Innovation for forecast method of Project Earned Value Management Project Forecast is a very important function of Project Earned Value Management , we can prepare project resources and decisions in advance in we can forecast precisely the future status of the project. The research develops the forecast method which is on the base of tracking assessment and uncertainty analysis of the project, and further proposes new indicators which combining cumulate indicators and dynamic indicators so as to forecast project future cost and schedule more accurate and scientific. In short, this paper put forward the new theory premise which is the base of the four main aspects above and make great improvement for Project Earned Value Management theory and methods.
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