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论文编号：	2565
作者编号：	2120082094
上传时间：	2010/6/11 16:06:45
中文题目：	房地产企业会计信息的价值相关性研究——基于Ohlson模型的扩展
英文题目：	Research on the Value Relevance of Accounting Information of Real Estate Company ——Based on the Expansion of Ohlson Model
指导老师：	李元
中文关键字：	房地产企业 会计信息 价值相关性 分项目披露
英文关键字：	Real estate industry; Accounting information; Value relevance; Disclosure by item
中文摘要：	我国资本市场已经进入了一个快速发展的时代，在国际上的地位也越来越重要。2009年底，我国A股市值达到了24.27万亿，超过日本成为继美国之后的全球第二大市值市场。随着资本市场规模的不断扩大，市场创新的不断深化，监管体系的不断完善，基于基本面的分析越来越重要。在这样的背景下，会计信息价值相关性研究的重要性也愈发凸显出来。 截至2009年底，我国房地产行业上市公司有74家，占上市公司总数的4.62%；行业总股本659.32亿股，占市场总股本的2.63%；行业总市值8182.48亿元，占市场总市值的3.3%；行业A股流通股431.7亿股，占A股总流通股的5.78%；行业A股流通市值5158.94亿元，占A股总流通市值的5.3%。以上数据说明在我国资本市场中，房地产公司有着很重要的地位。我国投资渠道较少，主要集中于证券和房地产投资，房地产股兼具这两项资产的特性，更受到投资者的青睐。而房地产企业投资期长，预售制度等与传统制造企业不同的特征，也使其会计信息具有一定的特殊性，针对房地产行业研究会计信息的价值相关性就更具有实际意义。 我们通过扩展Ohlson模型，加入与房地产行业特征密切相关的长期借款、短期借款、预期未来可结算营业利润、每股预收账款、预收账款增长率等指标，观察增量R2的变化以及各指标的显著性水平来研究各指标的价值相关性。我们发现长期借款、短期借款、预期未来可结算营业利润等指标具有价值相关性。预收账款的价值相关性以增长率的形式体现，即每股预收账款水平不具有价值相关性，而预收账款增长率的价值相关性较高。 因为房地产行业是受宏观经济影响较大的行业，我们分别对行业景气和不景气两种情况下的会计信息价值相关性进行了研究。我们发现在行业景气的情况下，市场更关注会计信息和公司基本面，但是对借款能力等指标关注度不高。 分项目披露存货、预收账款等信息是房地产行业的特殊要求，但是在实际中有很多公司没有严格执行。我们通过对比全体房地产公司和按要求分项目披露存货、预收账款信息的公司之间的回归结果发现，分项目披露信息能够提高会计指标的价值相关性，并且能够延长会计指标对股价的影响时间。
英文摘要：	China's capital market has entered into a rapid developing era, and plays a role which is more and more important in the world. By the end of 2009, China's A share market value reached 24.27 trillion, exceed Japan to become the second-largest market after the U.S. With the expansion of the market, the deepening of innovation, the constant improvement of the regulatory system, the analysis based on the fundamental is more and more important. In this case, the research about the value relevance of the accounting information is very meaningful. At the end of 2009, there are 74 real estate listed companies in our stock market, accounts for 4.62% of the total number; the total share capital of the real estate sector's is 659.32 billion shares, accounting for 2.63% of the total number; total market capitalization of the real estate sector's is 8182.48 billion yuan, accounting for 3.3% of the total number; float share of the real estate sector's is 431.7 shares, accounting for 5.78% of the A-share market ; the value of float share of the real estate sector's is 5158.94 billion yuan, accounting for 5.3% of the A-share market. The above figures indicate real estate industry is playing a very important role in China's capital markets. The investment channel in China is few, mainly in the security and real estate markets. Real estate shares, which have the characteristics of both of these two assets, are more preferred by investors. The real estate industry itself, long period in development and the presale system, have very different characteristics from traditional manufacturing industry. It makes its accounting indicators have some special characteristics. To study relationship between the real estate companies accounting indicators and its stock price is necessary. We develop the Ohlson model by adding indicators with the real estate characteristics, such as long-term borrowings, short-term borrowings, expected gross profit, accounts received in advance and its growth rate. We analyze the incremental changes in adjusted R2 of the modification and the significant level of each index to find the value relevance of each indicator. We find that long-term borrowings, short-term borrowings and expected gross profit have value relevance. The relevance between accounts received in advance and the price of the security is showed in the form of its growth rate, that is to say the growth rate of accounts received in advance has value relevance but not the number of accounts received in advance itself. Because the real estate industry can be affected more by the macroeconomic performance, we analyze the value relevance of the accounting information respectively in the condition that the house price rise and descend. We find that, in the condition in which house price is raised, the market concerned about the accounting information more, fundamental analysis is more useful. But in this case, indicators of the ability to borrow are lack of concerning. Disclosure the details of the inventory and the accounts received in advance by item is one of the special stipulations of the real estate industry, but in practice, many companies do not strictly enforce. To find out whether the stipulation is necessary, we design tow sample groups: one sample contain all the real estate companies (panel A), the other just contain the companies disclosure the details by item both for the inventory and the accounts received in advance (panel B). We find that in panel B, the accounting information are more related to the price of the security, and we also find disclosure the details by item can lengthen the period in which the accounting can affect the price.
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