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论文编号：	2501
作者编号：	2120082063
上传时间：	2010/6/11 9:23:23
中文题目：	基于PERT模拟的项目进度风险分析研究
英文题目：	The Research of Project Schedule Risk Analysis Based on PERT Simulation
指导老师：	程莉莉
中文关键字：	计划评审技术;蒙特卡洛模拟;进度风险分析
英文关键字：	PERT;Monte Carlo Simulation;Schedule Risk Analysis
中文摘要：	时间是项目管理最重要的约束条件之一，为了确保项目按期顺利完成，如何有效地管理项目进度风险，一直是项目管理理论界和实践界关心的问题。PERT网络技术是目前应用最广泛的进度风险分析方法，由于其自身存在的不足，在实践中常常结合蒙特卡洛模拟法使用。但是目前在这方面的应用研究，大多只关注项目完工风险率的计算，虽然也有一些针对活动风险度量指标的研究，但是这些指标都存在一定的局限性，加之其算法都比较复杂，所以在实践中极少涉及。基于这一问题，本文试图提出一套较为完善的项目进度风险分析的实施方案，以有效地指导项目管理实践。 本文首先对项目进度管理理论、项目风险管理理论和网络计划方法进行了理论回顾；然后，对经典PERT方法和蒙特卡洛方法的缺陷进行了分析，进而提出了改进方法，并详细阐述了PERT网络的建模及模拟实现过程；在此基础上，从项目和活动两个层面对进度风险进行了分析：在项目层面上，不同工期条件下的项目未完工概率反映了项目进度的总体风险；在活动层面上，综合运用活动关键性指标和活动重要性指标来识别高风险活动及其对总工期的影响程度。此外，进一步对非关键活动期望和方差波动时的超期风险进行了分析。最后以比亚迪公司实施SAP HR项目为例，通过分析该项目的实际情况，运用蒙特卡洛模拟法对该项目的PERT网络计划进行了仿真模拟，根据模拟结果从项目和活动两个层面对该项目的进度风险进行了分析，此外，对该项目中非关键活动期望和方差波动时的超期风险进行了判断，并利用模拟结果验证了其结论的合理性。 本文的创新之处在于，基于PERT模拟方法提出了一套较为完善的项目进度风险分析方案，从项目和活动两个层面对进度风险进行了分析，使项目管理者不仅能准确掌握项目进度的总体风险水平，更能识别出对项目工期有重大影响的高风险活动，为风险管理计划的制定提供了有力的依据。此外，本文利用EXCEL和水晶球软件实现了以上分析过程，这种方法简单高效，适于在实践中推广。
英文摘要：	Time is one of the most important constraints in project management. In order to ensure that the project be completed on schedule successfully, it has been the concern of theory and practice of community in project management how to manage the project schedule risk effectively. PERT network technology, the most widely used schedule risk analysis currently, is often combined with Monte Carlo Simulation in practice because of its shortcomings. However, most of the current application researches in this area only concern with calculating the rate of project completion risk. Although there are some researches on the indictor for the risk of activity, these indicators whose algorithms are complex have some limitations. Therefore, these indicators are rarely used in practice. Based on this problem, this thesis tries to present a more comprehensive project schedule risk analysis implementation plan to effectively guide the project management practice. Firstly, progress of the project management theory, project risk management theory and the network planning methods theory are reviewed. Then, the defects of the classical PERT method and Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. Furthermore, improved methods are proposed. PERT network modeling and process of simulation implementation are described in detail. On this basis, two levels from the projects and activities carried out on the schedule risk analysis. At the project level, the probability of the unfinished project in different duration reflects the progress of the project's overall risk. At the activity level, activity criticality index and activity cruciality index are comprehensive used to identify high-risk activities and their impact on the total duration. In addition, expectations of non-critical activities and extended risk of variance fluctuations are further analyzed. Finally, take SAP HR Project of BYD Company for instance. By analyzing the actual situation of this project, PERT network planning is simulated by using Monte Carlo simulation. Then schedule risk is analyzed at two levels from the projects and activities according to the simulation results. Moreover, expectations of non-critical activities and extended risk of variance fluctuations of the project are judged, and the reasonableness of its conclusions is verified by the simulation results. The innovation of this thesis is to propose a more comprehensive project schedule risk analysis program based on PERT Simulation method. Schedule risk is analyzed at two levels from the projects and activities so that project managers can not only accurately grasp the overall progress of the project risk level, but also identify high-risk activities which significantly impact on duration of the project. It provides a strong basis for the development of risk management plans. Besides, Microsoft Excel and Crystal Ball are used to achieve the above analysis process in this thesis. This approach is simple, effective and suitable for promotion in practice.
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