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论文编号：	2399
作者编号：	1120070704
上传时间：	2010/6/9 19:30:59
中文题目：	货币政策、融资约束与公司投资决策
英文题目：	Monetary Policy, Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment Decision
指导老师：	刘志远
中文关键字：	货币政策 融资约束 公司投资
英文关键字：	Monetary Policy, Financing Constraints, Corporate Investment
中文摘要：	根据当前国际和国内经济发展形势，国际金融危机席卷全球，各国的经济发展都不同程度地受到国际金融危机的冲击。为了挽救经济发展，防止经济大幅衰退，各国纷纷采取宽松的货币政策刺激经济发展。在此背景下，研究货币政策对公司投资的影响，对我国货币政策制定和实施具有非常重要的现实意义。 从经济理论发展状况和发展趋势来看，斯蒂格利茨教授认为21世纪将是宏微观经济学分久必合的时代，宏观经济学理论正在寻找微观经济基础，同时微观经济学也正在试图从微观个体行为推演出宏观总量上的经济含义。本文在此经济学理论发展背景下，使用微观经济层面公司数据检验货币政策对公司投资的影响，既符合经济学理论的发展趋势，又能够为货币政策理论提供微观经济基础。 在信息不对称条件下，公司融资和投资之间的关系，不再像MM资本结构无关论命题所述——公司投资和融资相互独立，公司投资和融资之间可能存在相互影响。在此基础上，对公司外部融资约束的机理进行了梳理和总结，本文认为公司融资约束是指：“由于资金市场不完美，公司内外部融资之间不能完全替代，外部融资存在融资溢价，使公司投资更多地依赖内部资金，导致公司投资决策受到融资因素的制约。”关于融资约束大小的衡量，本文认为可以从三个方面进行测度，从公司融资约束的经济后果角度看，体现为公司投资不足的程度；从公司融资约束的起因角度看，表现为公司与外部资金市场的信息不对称程度；从公司融资约束的表征角度看，则表现为外部融资能力的大小，更确切地讲是公司外部融资溢价的大小。 本文从信贷配给理论、债务积压理论和金融加速器效应等方面，探讨了货币政策对公司债务融资的影响。根据货币政策的资本市场路径，结合公司融资时机选择理论，探讨了货币政策对公司股权融资的影响。根据公司融资优序理论和融资市场分割理论，指出我国上市公司存在融资约束的可能性和普遍性，货币政策调整会通过多个渠道，普遍地对上市公司融资约束产生影响。同时，本文借鉴并发展了前人对融资约束与公司投资关系的分析框架，分无债务和有债务两种情况，分析了融资约束对公司投资的影响。 在对货币政策影响公司融资约束和融资约束影响公司投资的理论分析基础上，本文从现金流的角度，分析了货币政策通过融资约束影响公司投资的机理。本文认为，紧缩货币政策减少了公司内部现金流，使公司的营运资金占用和资本性投资之间争夺现金流。同时紧缩货币政策又增加了公司外部融资溢价和资金可得性的难度，使公司现金缺口通过外部融资补充更加困难，公司为了维持正常生产经营，不得不削减资本性投资支出。同时，分析了缓解公司资金紧张的因素，指出现金流储备和投资对外部资金的依赖程度，会影响货币政策对公司投资的作用效果。 为了验证货币政策通过融资约束对公司投资产生影响，在实证检验部分，分别使用离散型和连续型货币政策变量，检验货币政策对不同融资约束公司投资的影响，同时检验了货币政策对公司融资约束的影响和货币政策对公司投资影响效力的非对称性。研究结果发现，紧缩货币政策对公司投资支出具有抑制作用；宽松货币政策对公司投资支出具有促进作用，但是作用效果不如紧缩货币政策显著；货币政策对不同融资约束程度公司投资的影响存在差异，融资约束程度越大的公司，受货币政策的影响程度也越大。在对货币政策影响公司融资约束的检验时发现，货币政策越紧，公司融资约束程度越大。这些检验结果都充分说明，货币政策调整会改变公司外部融资约束程度，而公司的外部融资约束又影响了公司的投资行为。这一研究结论不但为货币政策影响公司投资提供了微观经济基础，也扩展了货币政策对公司投资影响的理论，同时也表明公司投融资之间不是孤立的，融资会制约投资，投资反过来影响公司外部融资能力。 本文的研究结论，不仅为货币政策理论提供了微观经济基础，丰富了货币政策理论，而且解释了公司资本性投资对货币政策调整较敏感的困惑。根据本文的研究，公司资本性投资之所以对货币政策调整较敏感，是因为货币政策影响了公司现金流和外部融资约束，从而使公司不得不选择如何使用有限的现金，是填补营运资金不足，还是进行资本性投资。公司为维持正常生产经营，不得不削减资本性投资支出，公司并不是放弃资本性投资。
英文摘要：	According to current international and domestic economic developments, international financial crisis sweeping the globe, the economic development of all countries is impacted in a way by the international financial crisis. In order to save the economy, to prevent significant economic downturn, many countries have eased monetary policy to stimulate economic development. In this context, the study of monetary policy on the impact of investment on the development and implementation of monetary policy has very important practical significance. To look at the situation and trend of the economic theory, professor Stiglitz pointed out that the 21st century would be the epoch that macroeconomics theories and microeconomics theories would be made into a whole after both of them had been established and developed for long by different economist independently. Macroeconomic Theory is looking for micro-economic basis, while microeconomics is also trying to deduce the macro-economic implications from individual behavior. On the big background of the economics theory development, This dissertation tests whether and how monetary policy impacts firm investment using microeconomic level firm data, which accords with the development trend of economic theory and trys to furnish some microeconomics foundation for monetary policy theory. Under asymmetric information, there is no longer irrelevancy between investment and financing which the MM capital structure theory narrates, but interrelationship because of information asymmetry. This dissertation analyses and summarizes firm external financial constraints and gives a definition of firm financial constraints: As the capital market is not perfect and external financing has a premium, so that internal financing can not entirely replace by external financing and firm investment have to more rely on internal fund, thus to the investment decision restricted by external financing variable. Basing on this definition, I analyzes how to measure the degree of financial constraints: according to the economic consequence of financial constraints, the degree of financial constraints can be measured by the degree of firm underinvestment; from an angle of the cause of financial constraints, the grade of financial constraints embodies the degree of the information asymmetric between firm and external capital market; with the characterization of financial constraints, the level of financial constraints can be measured by the external financing premium. The dissertation analyzes the impact of monetary policy to firm financing through carrying debt with credit rating, debt overhang and financial accelerator effect etc, and discusses the impact of monetary policy to firm financing through issuing stock according to the capital transmit path of monetary policy and combined with market timing theory. By virtue of pecking order theory and market segmention theory, the dissertation points out that our country’s listed firms encounter financing conatraints and which is universality, so that the readjustment of monetary policy will universally affect the degree of our country’s listed firm financing constraints. Meanwhile, learning from and develop the previous framework of analyzing the relation of between financing constraints and firm investment, the dissertation analyzes the impact of financing constraints to firm investment spending with two situation with no debt finance and debt finance. On the basis of analyzing the theory of monetary policy impacting firm investment through financial constraints, the dissertation deeply analyzes the relationship of three factors from cash flow angle. The dissertation consider that the contraction of monetary policy tightens firm’s internal cash flow and make a contend occuring between working capital and long-term real investment. At the same time, tight monetary policy increases the premium of external finance and makes the availability of external fund more difficulty, so that it is more difficulty that the gap of firm’s cash is complemented through external capital. In order to maintain normal activity, many firms have to decrease their long-term real investment. Furthermore, analyzing the relax factors of firm cash flow becoming more and more tight, the dissertation points out that cash reserve and the degree of firm investment’s external capital dependence may affect the effective of monetrary policy impacting firm investment. In order to validate the impact of monetary policy to firm investment through financial constraint, the dissertation tests the impact using respectively discrete monetary policy variable and consecutive monetary policy variable in the empirical segment, at the same time, tests the impact of monetary policy to financial constraints and the asymmetry of the effectiveness of monetary policy to firm investment. The result of the study finds that tight monetary policy has disincentive on firm investment and loose monetary policy has incentive, but the effectineness of losse monetary policy is less than that of tight monetary policy. There is different among of the effectiveness of monetary policy to firm with different financial constraint, that is, the more firm has financial constraint, the bigger effect will the firm suffer from monetary policy. Through testing the impact on monetary policy to corporate financing constraints, the dissertation finds that the more tight monetary policy, the greater the level of regulation of corporate finance. These empirical results have fully demonstrated that monetary policy adjustment will change the company's level of external financing constraints, and the company's external financing constraints will affect the company's investment behavior. The conclusions of the study will not only provide a micro-economic foundation for the impact of monetary policy to corporate investment, but also extend it in the theory, which indciates that it is not an isolated between the investment and financing, that is, financing will be restricted investment, and investment in turn influence company's external financing capacity. This study’s conclusion not only provides a micro-economic foundation for the theory of monetary policy and enrichs it, but also explains the confusion why the company's capital investment is more sensitive to monetary policy adjustments. According to this research, the reason why the company's capital investment is more sensitive to monetary policy adjustments is that monetary policy affects the company's cash flow and external financing constraints, so that the company had to choose how to use the limited cash, to fill the shortage of working capital, or for capital investment. In order to maintain normal production and operation, the company has to cut capital investment spending, but the company does not abandon the capital investment projects.
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