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论文编号：	2312
作者编号：	2120082071
上传时间：	2010/6/8 20:30:17
中文题目：	董事会独立性、管理者过度自信和企业财务风险
英文题目：	Independence of board of directors、Managers’Overconfidence and Enterprises Financial Risk
指导老师：	刘志远
中文关键字：	企业财务风险,管理者过度自信,董事会独立性,行为财务学
英文关键字：	Enterprises financial risk,Managers’overconfidence,Independence of board of directors,Behavioral finance
中文摘要：	市场经济是一种竞争异常激烈的经济形态，在这一经济形态下，企业的财务风险是客观存在的，它贯穿于企业的整个财务活动过程中。随着我国经济的深入发展，企业面临的市场环境发生了巨大的变化，因而企业面临越来越大的财务风险。纵观过去近几十年中，世界范围内众多大型企业陷入财务困境的例子时有发生，这对企业乃至整个国家的经济发展都产生了巨大的影响。究其原因，其中一个重要的原因就在于企业面临财务风险的威胁。因此，企业只有及时对其面临的财务风险进行分析，寻求导致财务风险的原因，采取有效的措施来防范与规避财务风险，才能探索出一条适合自身的长远发展之路。 企业财务风险的产生是由多方面的原因导致的，既有企业所面临的外部环境方面的原因，也有企业自身的原因。传统财务学对企业财务风险的原因进行的分析大都是基于理性经济人的假设，认为企业财务风险的产生主要是因为企业的利益相关者追求自身利益最大化，由此产生行为偏差，从而导致企业财务风险。然而，在现实经济活动中，经济主体并不是完全理性的，他们会因为认知偏差等心理原因而表现出有限理性。随着行为财务学的兴起，管理者非理性尤其是过度自信逐渐与企业财务决策联系起来，越来越多的学者开始以此为视角研究企业财务风险的成因。 本文从财务风险相关理论出发，研究管理者过度自信对企业财务风险的影响。首先，是对企业的财务风险进行界定，并介绍了财务风险的相关理论。其次，是对过度自信理论进行概述，对管理者过度自信的界定、原因进行了分析，对国内外关于过度自信与企业财务行为的研究进行了综述。并对董事会独立性进行了界定，分析了影响董事会独立性的因素。最后，基于前述理论分析了管理者过度自信与企业财务风险的关系，并分析了不同的董事会独立程度下管理者过度自信与企业财务风险之间的关系。 本文采用规范研究和实证研究相结合的方法，在理论分析的基础上提出研究假设，并利用2006-2008中国沪深两市上市公司的数据，采用描述性分析、Pearson相关性分析、多元线性回归的实证方法验证了本文的假设。研究结论如下：第一，管理者过度自信程度与企业财务风险的大小正相关。第二，董事会的独立性会影响管理者的过度自信所带来的行为效果。在独立董事比例不同的情况下，管理者过度自信对企业财务风险的影响是不同的。可见，独立董事发挥作用，可以增强对管理层的监督，从而减轻管理者过度自信行为所带来的消极影响。
英文摘要：	Marketing economy is an economy form, which is full of intense competition. Under the economy form, the financial risk is an existence that exists in all financial activities. With the deep development of our country’s economy, the environment of marketing the enterprises face has deeply changed, so the financial risks that enterprises face are more and more great. In the past few years, lots of large enterprises go bankrupt, this phenomenon brings huge impact to the enterprises and the development of country’s economy. One of the reasons is that the enterprises face the threat of financial risks. So, in order to look for the way that suits the long-term development of the enterprises, the enterprises must analyze its financial risks, explore the reasons and take into effective measures to prevent and avoid the financial risks. There are many reasons that can cause financial risks, including external environment reasons and enterprises internal reasons. The traditional financial theory’s analysis of the reasons that cause financial risks are based on the “rationality-premise”. The traditional financial theory ascribes the reasons that cause financial risks to stakeholders’ pursuit to selfish interests, hence bring into deviant behaviors, and cause financial risks. However, the economic entities are not completely irrational in the real economic activities, due to the cognitive bias they will show bounded rationality. With the emergence of behavioral finance, more and more scholars begin to contact managers’ non-irrational especially overconfidence with financial decisions, and explore the reasons that cause financial risks based this perspective. This thesis bases on the non-irrational premise, and explores the relationship between managers’ overconfidence and enterprise financial risks. This thesis studies the impact of managers’ overconfidence on financial risks from managers’ overconfidence theory, combined with related theory of financial risk. Firstly, this thesis defines financial risk, and introduces related theory of financial risk. Secondly, summarize overconfidence theory, analyze the reason of managers’ overconfidence and summarize the domestic and abroad studies on the relationship between managers’ overconfidence and enterprise financial behaviors. And define the independence of board of directors. Lastly, this thesis analyzes the correlation between managers’ overconfidence and enterprise financial risks, and explores the correlation under different independence of board of directors. In this thesis, both the standardize research and the empirical research methods are used, some hypothesis are given based on the theoretical analysis. Based on the data of listed companies from 2006 to 2008, descriptive statistics, and multiple regression are used to verify the hypothesis. The conclusions are as followed: Firstly, the correlation between mangers’ overconfidence and enterprise financial risks are positive. Secondly, corporate governance structure can affect the behaviors’ effect that managers’ overconfidence brings. Under the different independence of board of directors, the correlation between managers’ overconfidence and financial risks are different. It can clearly be seen that if independent director play a good role, they can strengthen the supervision to managers, therefore reduce the negative influence that managers’ overconfidence brings .
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