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论文编号：	2283
作者编号：	2220080662
上传时间：	2010/6/7 18:25:15
中文题目：	基于现金流的企业财务风险分析研究
英文题目：	The Research of Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis based on the Cash Flow
指导老师：	王全喜
中文关键字：	财务风险; 现金流; 风险分析
英文关键字：	Financial Risk; Cash Flow; Risk Analysis
中文摘要：	2008年以来的全球性的金融危机对实体经济产生的巨大的影响，许多企业都纷纷倒闭或者被兼并收购，其直接原因是因为企业的现金流问题所致。如何防范企业的财务风险再一次成为企业管理的重中之重。长期以来，我国财务风险研究主要是以ST公司为样本进行的分析，然而我们知道ST公司是指连续两年亏损的上市公司，其存在的风险是股票终止上市交易。这和本来意义的财务风险并不一致。一般而言，财务风险是指企业出现现金流量不足以补偿现有债务的可能性。现实生活中，有很多企业利润丰厚但是却由于资金链发生断裂导致了危机甚至破产。而另外一些企业虽然利润不足甚至可能亏损，但是由于现金流量充足，抵御风险能力较强，往往容易渡过难关迎来新的发展机会。因此如何从作为企业生命线的现金流出发，通过分析企业的现金流进行企业的财务风险分析成为本文的研究重点。 为了全面的了解企业现金流对财务风险的影响，本文对财务风险在企业现金流流程、流量、流向以及流速中的信息体现进行全面系统的分析。科学的现金流程的设置是企业进行财务风险管理的基础，现金流的组织过程中出现的任何问题都可能引发财务风险。现金流量综合反映了企业各项财务收支的现金盈余水平，流入量大于流出量并高于非付现成本，表明企业的财务状况较好，财务风险较低。现金流向表示企业现金流量的趋势，可以分为流入和流出两个方向。处于不同的生命周期的企业的现金流向特征不同，可以帮助企业识别潜在的风险。同时企业的现金流出应该具有互补性。现金流速指的是资本投入到回收的速度，现金流速快说明企业的资本投资能在很短的时间内收回，企业的财务风险较低，相反如果现金流速慢，企业会需要更多的资金支持企业的长期发展，资金链断裂的风险高，企业财务风险较大。最后，论文运用现金流的相关理论与方法对C公司的财务风险做了案例分析。随着时代的发展、科技的进步，现代企业的生存环境越来越恶劣。企业要想在竞争如此激烈的环境下得以生存和发展，必须做好企业的财务风险分析。
英文摘要：	Since 2008, the global financial crisis has had great influence to the real economy. Affected by this crisis, many enterprises have been mergers and acquisitions or going bankruptcies, while the direct cause of all this is related with cash flow issue. How to guard the enterprise from the financial risks has once again became the top priority. Over the past years, the financial risk analysis is mainly performed based on the samples of ST companies. While we all know that the ST means “Special Treatment” and ST companies means those companies with negative profit for two sequent years, which is now faced with the risk of delisting. This is inconsistent with the definition of financial risk. In general, the financial crisis refers to the status when the cash flow is insufficient in compensating the company’s debt. In reality, many companies are profitable in income statement while are under threaten of financial risk or even going bankruptcy due to the broken of the cash flow. Vice versa, many other companies, although with few profit or even negative profit, are survival from severe situation since they have maintained enough cash flow that have enhanced the capability of risk withstanding. The pre-caution of the financial risk have become the direction of this article. In order to have a fully understanding of the impact to the financial risk caused by the company’s cash flow, this article have performed a completely analyze of the financial risk information reflection in the process of cash flow, quantity of the cash flow, direction of cash flow and velocity of cash flow. An efficient cash flow process is the basis of enterprise’s cash management. Any problem caused due for the de-organization of the cash flow might trigger the financial risk. The quantity of the cash flow reflects the cash surplus of the enterprise’s financial transactions. If the cash inflow is greater than the cash outflow plus the non-cash payment cost, it shows a good financial position with less financial risk. The direction of the cash flow refers to the trend of the cash flow, which can be divided into cash inflow and cash outflow. The difference of cash flow directions between different life cycles can help to identify the hidden financial risk. Also the cash outflow projects need to be complementary. The velocity of the cash flow refers to the speed from the capital expenditure until the payback. A quick cash flow speed means the investment can be paid back in a shorter period that means a relative lower financial risk. Vise versa, a slow cash flow speed means extra cash required to support the long-term development which leads to a higher cash flow broken risk. The financial risk is higher. Finally, the paper have done a case study to analyze the financial risk of company C using the cash flow related theories and methods. With the development of the scientific and technological progress, the environment becomes increasing difficult for modern enterprise. If the enterprise wants to exist and develop in such a fierce-competitive environment, to have a good financial risk analysis becomes a must.
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