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论文编号：	2200
作者编号：	2220070937
上传时间：	2010/1/20 10:41:43
中文题目：	天津地铁工程项目中的风险管理研究
英文题目：	Study On Risk Management Of Tianjin Subway Engineering: A Case Study Of Tianjin No.2 Metro
指导老师：	戚安邦
中文关键字：	地铁工程项目；风险管理；风险因素；风险评价；风险应对
英文关键字：	metro project; risk management; risk factor; risk evaluation; risk reaction measures
中文摘要：	随着我国城市规模的不断扩大，城市交通紧张的问题日益严重，从而地铁建设得到了迅猛发展，鉴于地铁项目具有投资规模大，技术密集复杂，涉及专业领域繁多及施工复杂等特点，其建设实施过程中充满着大量不确定性因素（风险），由于这些因素的存在，使得地铁工程在规划、设计、施工等各个阶段都存在发生各类事故的风险。因此，对地铁工程项目进行风险管理显得尤为重要。 本文以项目风险管理理论为基础，以风险管理的流程为主线，结合地铁工程项目建设实施的特点，系统地探讨了适用于地铁工程项目的风险识别、风险评价和风险应对所采用的基本方法和技术手段，包括如下主要内容： 首先，从项目自身特点和目前发展现状出发，对地铁工程项目风险管理的独特性及其内容与方法进行了详细分析。第二，分析地铁工程建设各实施阶段的风险因素及其之间的本质联系，将目前在国内工程项目风险识别中用到的较为有效的方法，包括检查表法、分解分析法、故障树分析法、头脑风暴法、德尔菲法等，应用到地下工程项目风险识别中，识别出地铁项目风险的来源、类型、影响及后果。第三，针对识别出的地铁工程项目风险因素，建立以自然条件因素、环境因素、经济因素和技术因素为指标因素的风险评价指标体系，并分析了风险指数法、层次分析法和蒙特卡罗模拟法等风险评价方法的适用范围和在地铁工程项目风险评价中的应用。第四，在对地铁工程项目风险进行识别、分析、评价的基础上，针对地铁工程建设各个阶段的风险因素，提出了一系列行之有效的风险应对措施。最后，以天津地铁2号线工程为例，根据前面所述的风险管理程序和方法对其进行风险识别、评价和应对措施的研究。
英文摘要：	Along with the scale of city expanding continuously, urban traffic problem is increasingly serious, the metro construction has rapidly developed. In view of characters as large investment scale, complex technology, many professional fields and complex construction, there are many uncertainty factors(risks) during its construction. Because of the factors, phases of planning, design and construction are full of safety accident risks. Therefor, it’s important to manage risks of metro project. This thesis is based on risk management theory, takes the procedure of risk management as the main line. It mainly discussed the basic method and corresponding techniques of risk identification, evaluation and risk reaction measures aiming at the characteristics of metro engineering projects. It include all content as follows: First of all, characters and methods of risk management of metro project were analyzed based on the characters and development of metro project itself. Secondly, essential relation among risk factors in the whole process of metro construction was analyzed, and several effective methods of risk identification such as check list method, decomposition analysis method, fault tree analytical method, brainstorming, Delphi method was applied to metro project risk identification, so the risk source, type, effect and consequence were identified. Thirdly, aiming at the common risk factors identified for metro project, a risk evaluation index system with nature condition, environment, technique and economy as indexes for metro project was established. And the application scope of some risk evaluation methods such as risk index method, analsis hierarchy process(AHP), and Monte Carlo simulation method(MCSM) which can be used in metro project risk estimation. Forthly, based on risk identification, analysis and evaluation, a series of risk control methods using risk mitigation measure were presented aiming at risk factors of every construction phase for metro project. Finally, risk identification, evaluation and risk reaction measures of Tianjin No. 2 metro line was analyzed as example based on the procedure and method of risk management as above.
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