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论文编号：	2113
作者编号：	2120051955
上传时间：	2010/4/20 16:33:45
中文题目：	北京商业地产投资前期决策研究
英文题目：	Commercial real estate Investing value
指导老师：	于仲鸣
中文关键字：	商业地产 投资价值 区位价值 风险 决策模型
英文关键字：	Commercial real estate Investing value Section value Risk decision-making model
中文摘要：	近年来，海外基金、跨国公司、海内外商业地产开发商、商业集团、民营企业以及个人都对商业地产发生了浓厚的兴趣，商业地产投资一时成为投资热点。但由于商业地产交易分散在各种形成的交易活动中，商业地产在我国还是新生事物，实践远远超前理论研究。人们对于商业地产的价值，尤其是对投资价值的认知程度还比较低，对商业地产的概念、价值形成和变化规律、选址、效益、风险等问题尚缺乏全面、深入的研究分析。本文作者阅览了国内外大量文献后，发现目前国内相关研究仍处于初级阶段，可供借鉴的资料相对稀缺，这给投资者进行商业地产投资带来许多不便。 鉴于此，作者试图对全国城市商贸定位形式起重要作用的商业地产的投资规律进行了深层次的思考和研究，并以北京天安天地国际大厦为具体分析对象，结合大量市场资料，得出了一些有效的结论。理论上，在学术界就商业地产的研究起到抛砖引玉的作用；实践上，为投资者把握北京商业地产市场发展和分布规律、进行商业地产投资并取得最佳的经济效益提供一些思路、方法和工具。 本文运用了归纳和演绎相结合，规范分析和实证分析相结合，定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法，最后利用贝叶斯理论修正对自然状态的概率估计，并在此基础上建立了基于这一理论的商业地产投资风险决策模型。 本文在绪论中提出论文研究的背景和意义，然后第二章做了一个整体的理论铺垫，第三章概述了商业地产投资价值与商业地产投资的风险。第四章，具体分析了区位价值的影响因素，以及目标消费群与区域价值的关系与商业地产的自身价值。第五章，引出商业地产投资决策模型，并根据哈夫理论和贝叶斯理论详细分析了北京天安天地国际大厦项目的情况，对其区位、投资价值与投资决策风险进行了评估，检验了该理论模型的适用性。 本文主要通过分析和运用模型测算商业地产的区位价值和自身价值，从而确定商业地产的投资价值。在此基础上，将商业地产的投资区位、投资价值与投资风险相结合，并联系多年的实践，运用相关理论，得出了自己的观点，为投资者进行北京商业地产投资并取得最佳的经济效益提供了思路、方法和工具。
英文摘要：	Recent years, foreign fund, multinationals, the developer of commercial real estate, commercial groups and private company have good sense in commercial real estate and investing in commercial real estate becomes hotspot. For the trade of commercial real estate disperse many kinds of trade, commercial real estate is a baby in China. The theory research of it is far behind of practice. People know little of the merit and the investing value of commercial real estate. There is no systematic and deep research about the problem of the commercial real estate concept, the rule of value form and change, location choosing ,benefit analyse, risk preventing. After reading many related literature, the writer find the related research in China is still in the primary stage and the information which can be used is rare. This gives inconvenience to the investor who investing in the commercial real estate. For this, the writer tries to make some deep research in investing rule of commercial real estate which is important for the commercial form of the whole city and combining some market information, based on the Beijing Tian An Tian Di international high-rise program to get some effect conclusion. In theory, the writer wants to clue on the research of the commercial real estate. In practice, the writer wants to provide some method and tools for investors mastering the market development and the rule of location of the Beijing commercial real estate and investing. This thesis combines concluding and deducting, combines criterion and demonstration, combines qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis .At last, the writer makes use of Bayesian to modify the estimate of the nature probability and founds the investing risk decision-making model for commercial real estate based on this theory. This thesis brings forward the background and significance of this paper in the introduction. The first chapter introduces the related theory. The second chapter summarizes the investing value of the commercial real estate .The third chapter analyses the factor of the section value and the relationship of the target consumer and section value .The forth chapter construes the investing risk of commercial real estate . The fifth chapter elicits investing risk decision-making model for commercial real estate. The sixth chapter briefly analyses the present market demand for the commercial real estate and makes the base for the next chapter. The seventh chapter labors the investing value and risk of the Beijing Tian An Tian Di international high-rise program. Based on analyzing and measuring the section value and self value of the commercial real estate, this thesis works out the investing value of commercial real estate. Based on this, this paper combines the investing value and risk and exercise the Bayesian model to work out the decision-making method for the commercial real estate investment. At last, making use of Beijing Tian An Tian Di international high-rise program as case, it tests the applicability of the model.
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