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论文编号：	2014
作者编号：	2220070636
上传时间：	2009/12/15 9:14:25
中文题目：	天津移动应急通信保障项目风险识别与评估研究
英文题目：	Study On Risk Identification and Risk Evaluation For The Emergency Communications Guarantee Project Of Tianjin Mobile
指导老师：	杨坤
中文关键字：	天津移动 应急通信保障项目 风险识别 风险评估
英文关键字：	Tianjin Mobile Emergency Communication Guarantee Project Risk Identification Risk Evaluation
中文摘要：	随着城市化、工业化的发展，各类公共事件发生频繁所造成的不良影响越来越广，此时应急通信为各类紧急情况提供通信保障的作用越来越重要。应急通信保障是国家突发事件应急管理体系的一个有机的组成部分，无论和平时期抑或战争状态，当通信网设施遭受破坏、性能降级、异常高话务量或特殊通信保障任务的情况下，均需使用应急通信方式恢复国际、国家、地区或本地的通信能力。如何充分利用通信技术和最新通信技术成果，及时有效地应对各种突发事件、提高应急处置能力, 形成完善的应急通信保障体系，对构建和谐社会具有重大的现实意义。 目前我国国内应急能力评价方面的研究尚在起步阶段，还没有涉及应急通信领域的风险研究。本文作者结合多次参与天津移动重大应急通信保障项目的经验，通过对项目管理的深入研究，将项目风险管理中的风险识别、风险分析、风险应对与控制的方式引入应急通信保障项目的风险管理中。并根据该项目应急通信保障的特点，形成一套适用于天津移动应急通信保障项目的基于应急预案与项目需求信息匹配的5W反问式，以及基于风险与项目关联性和项目事前、事中、事后的应急保障能力的风险识别与分析方法。以项目风险的发生概率和后果影响为评估标准，用应急预案风险程度、风险发生频率、风险与项目相关性、应急抢修时间、业务受影响时间、业务受影响范围、业务受影响用户数量、业务受影响程度等8项基础指标体现风险程度，构建了应急通信保障项目风险评估指标体系模型。 为验证本研究成果的实用性，本文作者将研究形成的应急通信保障项目风险管理流程与方法应用于09年天津移动“十一”应急通信保障项目中。在汇集的23条风险总表中找到了17条与天津移动“十一”应急通信保障相关的风险，并按照风险评估的结果对风险级别进行了排序，为及时制定并实施应急保障方案提供了依据，保障了“十一”应急通信保障项目的顺利完成。 本文研究得出的风险评估结论不仅可以成为单个项目的风险应对和控制制定措施的基础，而且指出了应急预案中对应此类应急通信保障项目的管理制度方面的漏洞，从而为修订、更新应急预案提供依据。使用本文研究的项目风险管理方法得到的风险清单还可以作为后期规划建设项目的风险参考，为今后的应急通信保障项目避免出现此类风险奠定基础，并为今后此类应急通信保障项目的风险评估研究提供一定借鉴和经验。
英文摘要：	With the development of urbanization and industrialization, the undesirable impact caused by frequently occurred various public events is more and more severe, thus the function of emergency communication for supplying communication guarantee is more and more important. The emergency communication guarantee is an organic integral part of the national emergency control system for disruptive events, no matter what condition it is, peace or war, when the installations of communication network are damaged, which performance is degraded, have abnormal higher traffic load or special communication guarantee task, the emergency communication mode shall be activated to recover the local, regional, national or international communication capacity. So, it has important realistic significance to take full advantage of communication technology and newly technical fruits, enhance emergency control ability and treat effectively different disruptive events, form perfect guarantee system of emergency communication and construct the harmonious society. At present, the study on evaluation of domestic emergency capability in China is only at the beginning stage and has not yet dealt with the risk investigation in emergency communication field. Combining the experience of participating many times in the important emergency communication guarantee project of China Mobile Group Tianjin Co., Ltd (hereinafter referred to as Tianjin Mobile) and through the intensive study on the project management, this author introduced the risk identification, risk analysis, risk response and control mode listed in project risk management to the risk management of emergency communication guarantee project. According to the features of emergency communication guarantee project, this author has developed a set of methods about risk identification and risk analysis that is suitable for the emergency communication guarantee project of Tianjin Mobile based on the 5W rhetorical questions combined with emergency response plan and demand information of project, the relationship of risk and project and the emergency guarantee capacity before, during and after the events. Meanwhile, the author has also constructed a risk evaluation indicator system model used for emergency communication guarantee project, which evaluation criteria adopts the occurrence probability and consequent influence of project risk and which risk degree is reflected by eight base values, such as the risk degree of emergency response plan, risk occurrence frequency, relationship of risk and project, emergency repair time, as well as influenced time, influenced scope, influenced degree of business and influenced user quantity. For verifying the practicability of research results, this author has ever applied the risk management flow and method of emergency communication guarantee project into the emergency communication guarantee project of Tianjin Mobile on “1 Oct 2009”. During this application, 17 pieces of risks correlative with the emergency communication guarantee of Tianjin Mobile for the “1 Oct 2009” have totally have been selected from the total list of 23 pieces of risks and the risk degree is sorted according to result of risk evaluation, thus the risk basis can be supplied for formulating and implementing timely the emergency guarantee project and the smooth completion of emergency communication guarantee project for the “1 Oct 2009” can be guaranteed. The conclusion of risk evaluation summarized by this study can not only become basis for formulating measures about risk response and risk control of individual project, but also point out the faults of managerial system in emergency communication guarantee project. The risks list obtained by using the method of project risk management proposed by this study can also be used as risk reference for planned construction project in late stage, laid the foundation for emergency communication guarantee project avoiding such risks in the future and provided certain of reference and experience for risk evaluation of emergency communication guarantee project.
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