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| 论文编号： | 1925 | |
| 作者编号： | 031682 | |
| 上传时间： | 2010/5/12 9:52:23 | |
| 中文题目： | 房价形成机理分析与实证研究 | |
| 英文题目： | The Analysis of House Price Formation Mechanism and Positive Study | |
| 指导老师： | 侯文华 | |
| 中文关键字： | 房地产市场 房价 房地产泡沫 北京房市 四象限模型 | |
| 英文关键字： | Real estate markets House price Real estate bubbles | |
| 中文摘要： | 房地产业关联性极高，能带动50多个行业产品的发展，目前仍是国民经济中的支柱产业。房价是房地产市场最明显的表征，房价的高低波动会对整个实体经济产生深远影响。目前，我国房市价格普遍上涨引起了大家的关注，专家学者都在尝试分析上涨背后的原因以及如何调控使之健康发展，但是房市价格的影响因素很多，因素之间互相影响，在分析房价时很难准确全面的把握因素对房价的影响方向和力度，对政府的很多调控政策的出台都有很多争议，所以本文试图从原理上分析房价形成过程以及这个过程中各个因素是如何发挥作用的。 本文分三大部分，第一部分用迪帕斯奎尔的四象限模型来分析房价的形成过程，并解释了模型的几大重要外生变量是如何作用于内生变量的。 第二部分结合中国目前房市现状从房价的组成角度分析短期内房价的波动，并从马克思的虚拟资本的角度分析土地在房市泡沫中扮演的角色。 第三部分是对北京市场的案例分析，最后对2006年北京房价的走势作了预测。 大部分关于房价分析的文章都是从供需角度分析其均衡价格或者从成本角度析其价格的，本文把两者结合起来，在第一部分分析房价长期均衡形成时从供需角度分析，并用迪帕斯奎尔的四象限模型把各种因素整合在一起，这些因素都是外生变量，最终都是通过房市的四大内生变量（租金、价格、存量、增量）起作用的。第二部分从房价的组成部分角度分析短期价格波动。 最后的实证研究部分我收集了历年北京市关于住宅供需状况指标以及房价相关指标的数据来评价北京市住宅市场，把这些数据得出的趋势和今后几年北京市的城市规划、房地产政策环境、重大项目建设和经济发展机遇结合起来预测2006年的价格走势。 | |
| 英文摘要： | The real estate industry has a strong relativity, which can promote more than 50 industries to develop. Now it is also our mainstay of CND. House price is the superficial characteristics of the real estate markets and the fluctuations of price will bring great effect upon the whole real economy. At present, everyone pay attention to common increase of the house price in china. Experts and scholars try to analyze the reasons and give lots of suggestions to government to adjust the real estate markets. But the factors, which affect the price, are too many and relative to be distinctly separated. In the price analysis, they have much trouble to accurately recognize the direct and extent of changes of price, caused by those factors. So they have many debates on the present regulative policies. This paper tries to analyze the formation process of the house price and explain how the factors cause the changes in the formation process. This paper has three parts. In the first part, the Dipasquale’s four-quadrant model is used to analyze the house price formation and how some important exogenous variables of the model affect the endogenous variables is explained next. In the second part, the present situation of the real estate market is combined with the analysis of price fluctuation from the angle of components of price. And the role of the virtual capital in the real estate market bubble is analyzed after that. The third part is a case study about the real estate markets in Beijing. At last we forecast the trend of price fluctuation of 2006. Most of the writings about house price analyze equilibrium price from the angle of supply and demand or the cost. The paper combines the two points of view together. In the first part we analyze the long-term equilibrium price from the view of supply and demand; In the second part, we analyze the short-term price fluctuation from the point of components of price. In the Dipasquale’s model, we integrate all the factors, which all affect the market by the effect to the four endogenous variables: (rent, price, stock, flow), into a model. A lot of data about the indexes of S&D and house price over the years are collected in the last part---case study on Beijing. Combining the trend of the data and the city planning, policies environment of the real estate market, major urban construction and the economical development opportunities, we can obtain the trend of price in the next years. | |
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