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论文编号：	1902
作者编号：	2120062105
上传时间：	2010/4/30 9:50:45
中文题目：	预算软约束与风险偏好的动态不一致性
英文题目：	Soft Budget Constraint, Risk Preference Dynamic Disaccord, Experiment, Sunk Cost (Profit)
指导老师：	李建标
中文关键字：	预算软约束 风险偏好动态漂移 实验 沉没成本（收益）
英文关键字：	Soft Budget Constraint, Risk Preference Dynamic Disaccord, Experiment, Sunk Cost (Profit)
中文摘要：	预算软约束问题研究在我国由来已久，随着各种改革政策的不断推出，其表现形式也逐渐从显性过度到隐性，但是预算软约束现象却从未消失过。不仅是在国有企业，即使在现代资本主义经济里，事后的再贷款现象也十分常见，尤其在西方由政府出资经营的项目中，同样存在着严重的成本超限问题。 预算约束的软或硬，就其实质而言是事后的有效与事先的有效之间的替代，而这种替代关系主要取决于当事人对风险投资结果的预期。制度约束条件的软或硬，并不代表预算软约束现象就已经产生，根据这种预算约束的软硬程度而不断变换的经营和投资策略，才是预算软约束问题的核心。考察企业或银行决策者的风险偏好及经营投资行为，对于预算软约束问题研究具有重要意义。投资决策者风险偏好的动态不一致性，很有可能就是导致各类经济主体预算软约束问题的内生“导火索”，这个关键因子具有“事前”不能预测，“事中”无从控制，“事后”无法纠正等特点，是行为人违背理性抉择的根本症结所在。 本文尝试借鉴实验经济学的基本方法，利用计算机实验系统，选取真实的参与人，在可控制性的实验条件下，进行预算软约束与风险偏好的静态和动态实验研究。通过对实验数据的分析对比，对不同条件下的风险偏好的动态变化进行了多角度反复检验。主要包括：首先设置预算软约束与风险偏好基础实验，考察影响投资者决策的主要因素，观测预算约束的软化和初始禀赋形式，对投资者预期及风险偏好的影响；其次，设置多期平面投资下的风险偏好实验，考察风险偏好是否存在着动态不一致现象，以及不同被试者的风险偏好漂移路径；最后，设置动态追加投资下的风险偏好实验，观测沉没成本（收益）、及与预算软约束的双重作用对风险偏好动态变化的影响。 研究结果显示，投资者风险偏好的确存在着动态不一致性，且不同类型的投资者改变其风险偏好的方式也不一样。研究证实，预算约束条件的软化是导致风险偏好漂移的最显著的影响因子。同时，投资者风险偏好还受到投资期数、初始禀赋、前期投资结果及当前资本余额等多重因素影响。因此，风险偏好的变化会改变投资决策者“事前”与“事后”预期，并最终影响企业的投资决策。
英文摘要：	The research on Soft Budget Constraint (SBC) has been continued for a long time in China. With the introduced reform policies, the expression of SBC has also changed from notable to recessive form. But the phenomenon of SBC has never disappeared. The re-landing problem not only exists in state-owned enterprises, but also appears in modern capitalist economies. Cost overrunning issues are very serious in government-funded projects in the west countries. The nature of the budget constraint problem relies on the alternative of "before" and “after” effectiveness, and the alternative mainly depends on the investor’s expectation of the outcomes. The behaviors of the investors, rather than system constraints, really trigger SBC. So the inspection of policy-makers’ risk preferences as well as their business investment behaviors is of great significance. The dynamical inconsistency of investors’ risk preferences is very likely the main reason leading to SBC problem. Humans always deviate from the rational behaviors, and their dynamical changing risk preferences can not be forecasted, controlled or adjusted either prior or after investment behaviors. Referring researches of experimental economics in western countries, this dissertation applies the computer experimental system and recruits participants to build laboratory investment markets. Therefore researches of this dissertation are based on analyzing the experimental data. Through the comparison of different conditions in multi-angle repeated test, we observe the disaccording path of risk preferences. The main content of this thesis are as follows. Firstly, we design 2 sessions of experiments to find the impact of the softening budget constraint and the form of endowment on the risk preference. Besides, this thesis also includes several experimental comparative studies, focusing on the dynamical inconsistency of risk preference as well as its drifting path. In addition, this thesis also verifies the change of risk preference under the Dual impact of sunk cost (receipt) and SBC. Experiment results showed that, risk preferences change from time to time following different path according to different type of investors, and SBC is the most significant element affecting risk preferences. Furthermore, risk preferences also change with the difference of rounds of investment, endowment, results of prior investments and the current capital account. Therefore, the changes of risk preferences will change the decision-makers’ "before" and "after" expectation, and ultimately affect the enterprise’s investment decisions.
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