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论文编号：	1825
作者编号：	031688
上传时间：	2010/5/14 8:53:37
中文题目：	基于现有财务困境预警模型比较研究
英文题目：	Listed companies Financial distress Financial prediction
指导老师：	周宝源
中文关键字：	上市公司 财务困境 财务预警
英文关键字：	Listed companies Financial distress Financial prediction
中文摘要：	上市公司财务困境预警的研究在国外尤其是在证券市场发达的国家是一个被广泛关注的研究课题，它不仅具有较高的学术价值，而且有着巨大的社会应用价值。随着我国证券市场的发展，证券投资方式逐渐被社会大众所接受，参与证券市场的投资者日益增多，作为证券市场主体的上市公司的健康与否牵动着众多的利益相关者，关系着我国证券市场的稳定与健康发展。而1998年至2004年间，我国被“ST”的上市公司逐年增多，这给我们敲响了警钟，同时也使企业财务困境预警的研究显得更加重要。 目前我国财务困境预警的研究中，大多数学者都把上市公司被“ST”作为财务困境公司的界定标准，而“ST”公司只是财务困境公司中困境程度最严重的部分，这样做的严重后果就是只针对财务困境最严重的情况预警，而不能对陷入财务困境初期及中期的公司进行预警，失去了预警的真正目的。所以本文从另外一个角度展开研究，即不明确给出财务困境的界定标准，而是先在理论上将我国上市公司的财务状况分为财务过剩、财务均衡和财务困境，然后通过实证分析验证理论假设的科学性，从而使得本文在财务困境公司的划分上更为合理，这样做无疑比简单地将“ST”作为财务困境的界定标准有着更大的科学性。在此基础上构建的财务困境预警模型也能够有比较好的预警效果。 在文献回顾的基础上，本文首先对我国上市公司财务困境的原因进行了理论分析，继而对现有财务困境预警的模型进行了比较研究。在构建我国上市公司财务困境模型的过程中，本文首先对上市公司财务状况的分类进行了研究，实证结果表明，我国上市公司确实存在着上述三种财务状况。而且研究发现，我国上市公司普遍存在着财务状况不佳的现象，隐性财务困境的上市公司远远多于证券市场上实际披露的数目。随后，根据上述对我国上市公司财务状况的分类结果，本文运用多元逐步判别分析方法建立我国上市公司的财务困境预警模型，并分别用前一年和前两年的财务数据进行预测，结果表明前一年的模型的判别准确率达到82.8％，前二年的模型的总体判别准确率达到71.1％。最后本文对财务困境预警的研究和提高我国上市公司整体质量提出了一些建议。
英文摘要：	The research on financial distress prediction is one of the most important research subjects in many foreign countries especially in the developed stock market countries. The research has not only high academic value but also enormous social application value. With the development of Chinese stock market, the stock investment manner has been accepted by the public, and more and more investors participate in the stock market. As the main body of the stock market, the listed companies’ health condition has more and more importance to the stock market itself and the participants. But since 1998 to 2004, the number of the listed companies which was “special treated” increased year by year, which alarms us and makes the research on financial distress prediction more important. At present, in the domestic study on financial crisis prediction, most people make the “special treatment” as the standard of financial crisis. But the “special treatment” companies are only the worst ones of the financial crisis companies. So there is one big problem in this method: it can only predict the companies which are badly in the financial crisis, but can’t predict the companies which just get in financial crisis, which lose the real purpose of prediction. So this thesis doesn’t give the standard of financial crisis definitely, but classifies the financial position of companies into three categories: financial overplus, financial equilibrium, and financial distress, and then makes empirical study to validate the rationality of this classification. Thus this method has the excellence compare with the present study, and the model based on the study may have better prediction effect. Based on the review of the present study, this thesis first analyzes the reasons why the Chinese listed companies get in financial crisis, and then compares the present models of financial crisis prediction. In the process of constructing prediction model, this thesis first makes research on the partition of financial distress companies. The empirical study results indicate that there actually exist three categories of company financial positions in the Chinese listed companies. The research also finds that there exists generally bad financial position phenomena in Chinese listed companies, and the number of hidden financial distress companies is far more than current number which is actually throwed daylight on. Then, based on the classification results of Chinese listed companies above, this thesis constructs the financial distress prediction model of Chinese listed companies with the financial data of the years before and the data of two years ago using the stepwise discriminant analysis method. The results indicate that the model of the year before and of two years ago have the overall prediction right ratio of 82.8% and 71.1%. At last, this thesis makes the conclusion and gives some advices.
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