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论文编号：	1809
作者编号：	041814
上传时间：	2010/5/12 16:16:35
中文题目：	预测滞后对牛鞭效应的影响
英文题目：	Influence of the Hysteresis of Forecasting on the Bullwhip Effect
指导老师：	侯文华
中文关键字：	牛鞭效应 啤酒游戏 预测滞后
英文关键字：	Bullwhip Effect; Beer Game; Hysteresis of Forecasting
中文摘要：	供应链管理作为21世纪增强企业竞争力最主要的管理思想和方法之一，已经受到了国内外学术界与企业界的广泛关注，是管理科学在生产、流通系统中最具挑战性的理论与应用工作。作为供应链管理中普遍存在的一个现象，牛鞭效应（The Bullwhip Effect）成为学术界关注的焦点之一。 学术界普遍认为需求信息的扭曲是产生牛鞭效应的主要原因之一，因此本文从信息扭曲的源头——需求预测，来探讨预测滞后对牛鞭效应的影响。本文主要使用了比较分析、数据模拟、相关性分析、定量分析、定性分析等研究方法来进行研究。 首先，本文尝试阐述预测滞后的概念，并对预测滞后进行了量化工作。在此基础上，本文用定性分析的方法简单地分析了预测滞后对牛鞭效应的影响。 随后，为了验证定性分析得出的结论，本文对啤酒游戏（Beer Game）进行了数据模拟。本文的啤酒游戏模型是用Microsoft Excel软件建立的。在模型中，本文设定啤酒游戏中各角色的预测方法为加权移动平均法，同时设定啤酒游戏中各角色的库存策略为最小化预测库存成本的策略。 本文分别对顾客需求稳态、顾客需求服从均匀分布、顾客需求服从正态分布这三种情况进行了模拟运行，并使用SPSS软件对啤酒游戏中四个角色所采用权重的预测滞后和牛鞭效应进行了相关性分析，得出的结论验证了本文定性分析得出的预测滞后对牛鞭效应的影响。 最后，本文进行了总结，并根据本文得出的结论提出了一个建议，即供应链中不直接面对最终顾客的企业可以考虑采用预测滞后较大的预测方法进行预测。
英文摘要：	As one of the most important management ideas and methods in increasing enterprise’s competitiveness in the 21st century, supply chain management has received extensive attention from both internal and oversea academe and corporations, it is the most challenge academic and applied work for management sciences in manufacture and currency systems. As a prevalent phenomenon in supply chain management, the bullwhip effect has been emerging as one of the focus of research in the academic world. The academic world think that demand information distortion is one of the mostly causations in causing the bullwhip effect, so the study in this thesis start from the headstream of information distortion--demand information forecasting and discuss the influence of the hysteresis of forecasting on the bullwhip effect. The study approaches used in this thesis include comparative analysis, date simulation, relativity analysis, quantitative analysis, qualitative analysis and so on. First of all, this thesis tries to expound the conception of the hysteresis of forecasting, and finishes the work that measuring the hysteresis of forecasting. Then, the thesis uses qualitative analysis method to analyze the influence of the hysteresis of forecasting on the bullwhip effect simply. Subsequently, in order to validate the result of the qualitative analysis, we carry out the date simulation on the Beer Game. The model of Beer Game in this thesis is established by using Microsoft Excel software. The forecasting approach used in Beer Game model is weighted moving average approach, and the inventory policy is to minimize the forecasting inventory cost. This thesis runs the model in three conditions separately, they are custom demand obey steady state, custom demand obey uniform distribution, custom demand obey normal distribution, and we carry out the relativity analysis between the hysteresis of forecasting of the weights used by the four role’s in the Beer Game and the bullwhip effect by using the SPSS software, and the outcome validates the result mentioned in this thesis through the qualitative analysis, which is that the influence of the hysteresis of forecasting on the bullwhip effect. At last, we summarize this thesis, and according to the conclusion of the thesis, we suggest the enterprises that don’t face the final custom can consider using the forecasting approach which has larger hysteresis of forecasting to forecast.
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