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论文编号：	1798
作者编号：	041807
上传时间：	2010/5/12 15:54:44
中文题目：	基于GERT模拟的项目进度风险度量方法研究
英文题目：	GERT, simulation, project schedule, risk measurement
指导老师：	程莉莉
中文关键字：	GERT　模拟　项目进度　风险度量
英文关键字：	GERT, simulation, project schedule, risk measurement
中文摘要：	GERT技术提出已经有几十年的时间，前人也已经做了许多相关的研究工作，但这种技术并没有在项目进度风险度量实践中得到普遍应用。因此，本文主要研究基于GERT模拟的项目进度风险度量方法的实施过程，并对其实施结果进行分析，以求对这种进度风险度量方法作出相应的评价，这些研究主要包括： 1）分析了作为传统项目进度风险度量主要方法的PERT技术所存在的三个主要问题：其基本假设的不足，“乐观”、“悲观”和“最可能”的时间定义问题以及PERT自身特性的不足，并回顾了针对这些问题不同学者提出的技术改进方法和理论的扩展。随后在分析GERT技术和Monte Carlo模拟方法的基础上，讨论了运用Monte Carlo方法解决GERT随机网络问题的一般过程。 2）以实际项目为例，深入研究了基于GERT模拟的项目进度风险度量方法的实施过程。这个过程包括GERT随机网络基本模型的构建、活动时间参数的设定、模拟次数的确定、模拟的实现以及运用模拟结果进行项目进度风险度量等环节。 3）在比较基于PERT模拟和GERT模拟两种方法进行项目进度风险度量的结果的基础上，从实施过程和风险度量结果两个方面对基于GERT模拟的项目进度风险度量方法进行分析。通过分析，本文认为该方法由于考虑了项目活动的不确定性，其度量的风险较之PERT方法更为保守和悲观，适用于活动不确定性程度比较高，或对项目进度风险控制要求比较高的项目。 本文的主要创新点是文章研究了对GERT随机网络模拟的实现过程，并根据实际项目进度风险度量的结果，对基于GERT模拟的项目进度风险度量方法进行适用性分析。
英文摘要：	Although GERT has been proposed for several decades and much of the relevant research work has been done by predecessors, the technique has not got general application in the practice of project schedule risk measurement. Thus, this thesis deals with the implementation of project schedule risk measurement based on GERT simulation and analysis of its result in order to make corresponding evaluation on this schedule risk measurement method. The main work includes as follows: a) Three problems of PERT, the traditional project schedule risk measurement method, are analyzed. They are: the drawbacks of the assumptions of PERT, the definitions of the optimistic, the pessimistic and the most probable activity time, the limitations of PERT Theory and so on. And then against these shortcomings, improvement and theoretical expansion of PERT proposed by scholars are reviewed. Subsequently, on the basis of analysis of GERT and Monte Carlo simulation method, the general process of Monte Carlo simulation method to solve GERT networks is discussed. b) Taking a practical project for instance, the implementation of project schedule risk measurement method based on GERT simulation is studied in depth. The process includes GERT network modeling, activity time parameters settings, simulation times determination, simulation realization, project schedule risk measurement according to simulation results and so on. c) On the basis of comparison between the results of project schedule risk measurement based on PERT simulation and those based on GERT simulation, the evaluation of project schedule risk measurement method based on GERT simulation is made from implementation process aspect and measurement results aspect. By comparative analysis, this method is thought to be more conservative and more pessimistic than the method based on PERT simulation as a result of taking the uncertainty of project activity into account, and thus it applies to the projects with high degree uncertainty and those are highly demanding in schedule risk control. The main innovations of this thesis lies in the study of realization process of GERT network simulation and the applicability analysis of project schedule risk measurement method based on GERT on the basis of practical project schedule risk measurement results.
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