联系我们

论文查询结果	返回搜索

论文编号：	1637
作者编号：	2220070611
上传时间：	2010/6/12 21:48:50
中文题目：	火电施工项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Fire Power Construction Project Risk Management Research
指导老师：	程莉莉
中文关键字：	火电施工项目；风险管理；风险识别；风险度量；风险控制
英文关键字：	Fire power construction project;Risk management;Risk identification;Risk measurement;Risk control
中文摘要：	随着“十一五”国民经济的快速发展，我国对于电力的需求量日益增加，火电基本建设因而得到了迅猛的发展，对火电施工项目的发展起到了推动作用。火电施工项目工期较长、技术复杂、施工环节和制约因素较多，影响其施工过程及经济效益的不确定性因素具有很大的不可预见性和随机性，使火电施工项目存在着较大的风险。因此对火电施工项目风险评价及指标体系进行研究具有十分重要的意义。回顾过去，我们发现借助现代项目管理中的风险管理理论，可以很好的解读火电施工市场的现状和火电施工项目所面临的困难，指导火电施工行业的稳步发展。 作者在收集了近三年火电施工项目案例和征求业内专家的意见的基础上，结合所在企业实际情况，对火电施工项目进行风险管理研究并建立火电施工项目风险管理模型和风险应对方案流程。 本论文回顾了项目风险管理的相关理论，分析了火电施工市场的特点和火电施工项目的独特性，在总结历史案例的基础上对火电施工项目所面临的风险进行了识别，得到火电施工项目风险体系，并以风险发生概率和风险影响后果为指标建立了火电施工项目的风险分析模型。而后，本文重点对识别出的火电施工项目风险进行了度量，在风险发生概率的定量分析中主要采用了案例分析法和专家调查法，作者收集了火电施工项目案例并进行统计分析，得到案例中各类风险发生的概率，再利用专家调查表收集业内专家的意见并进行分析，得出专家预测的各类风险发生概率，再对两者进行加权平均得到火电施工项目的风险发生概率；然后，依据专家意见调查表反馈意见对风险的影响后果进行了界定，量化了火电施工项目风险因素的影响程度，在量化以上两个指标的基础上最终得到火电施工项目的风险等级。在此基础上，建立了火电施工项目风险管理模型和火电施工项目风险应对方案流程，并制定了应对火电施工项目投标、合同签订、项目相关方、项目管理等各种风险应采取的措施。
英文摘要：	Along with the fast development of the “11th Fire-Year” national economy, the demand of our country to power is big more and more. The power construction gets the fast development and it drives the development of the fire power construction project. The long work period, the complicate technique, the more construction link and supervision factor, the unpredictability and random of the indetermination factor which affecting construction process and economic performance make the bigger risk of the fire power construction project. Therefore the research on the risk evaluation and the index systems of the fire power construction project has the very important meaning. Reviewing the past, we discover that we can unscramble the present condition of the market, the actual difficulty and guide the development of the industry in virtue of the risk management theories of the modern project management. The author checks on the risk management of the fire power construction project and builds up the risk management model and the risk replying process basing on combining the actual circumstance of corporation, collecting the cases of the fire power construction project about three years and asking for the expert's opinion. The thesis reviews the interrelated theories of the project risk management, analyzes the fire power construction market characteristics and its specialty. It identifies the project risk, gets the risk system based on the generalizing history cases, and founds the risk analysis model with the index of the happened risk rate and the influence result. Then, it measures the identifiable risk of the fire power construction project. The method of case analysis and expert investigation are mainly adopted in quantitative analysis of the risk probability happened. The author collects and statistical analyzes the fire power construction project cases, gets each kind of risk probability happened. In addition to, the author collects and analyzes the expert opinions using the expert investigation form, and gets the each kind of predictable risk probability happened, and educes the project risk probability happened by averaging the both. Then, the influence result is defined according to the expert opinion investigation form; the influence degree of fire power construction project risk factor is quantified, and the risk grade of the project is gained based on the quantity of the two indexes above. On this foundation, it founds the risk management model and the risk replying process of the fire power construction project, and establishes the measure of facing various risks, as the fire power construction project bid, the contract, the related system and the project management etc.
查看全文：	预览  下载(下载需要进行登录)