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论文编号：	16160
作者编号：	2120243789
上传时间：	2026/6/10 12:45:32
中文题目：	风险规避下的跨境电商供应链销售模式选择策略
英文题目：	Risk-Averse Cross-Border E-Commerce Supply Chain Sales Model Selection Strategy
指导老师：	侯棚文
中文关键字：	跨境电商供应链；销售模式选择；风险规避；市场竞争；斯塔克尔伯格博弈
英文关键字：	Cross-border e-commerce supply chain; sales model selection; risk aversion; market competition; Stackelberg game
中文摘要：	在全球跨境电商持续扩张、国际贸易环境不确定性加剧的背景下，跨境电商供应链面临关税政策频繁波动、跨境退货成本高企、市场需求随机波动以及目的国本土制造商竞争加剧等多重外部冲击，而供应链成员普遍存在的风险规避倾向，进一步放大了销售模式决策的复杂性与难度。现有研究多聚焦国内电商场景，较少将关税、退货、竞争与风险规避纳入统一框架开展跨境供应链销售模式选择研究。为此，本文以跨境制造商与电商平台构成的二级供应链为研究对象，基于斯塔克尔伯格博弈理论，分别构建仅考虑退货与风险规避、同时考虑退货、风险规避与目的国制造商竞争两类决策模型，采用均值-方差准则量化刻画供应链成员的风险规避行为，系统探究风险规避程度、竞争强度、关税税率、退货率、逆向物流成本等关键参数对定价、产量（订货量）、成员效用及均衡销售模式选择的影响机制。 研究结果表明：第一，跨境制造商与跨境电商平台的最优销售模式选择具有显著场景依赖性，二者偏好并非完全一致，弱竞争、低风险、低关税与低退货率环境下，自营模式的利润优势更为突出；强竞争、高风险、高关税与高退货率场景下，转售模式凭借风险共担与成本分摊优势成为更优选择。第二，竞争强度对跨境供应链决策产生显著调节作用，目的国制造商的均衡销量随竞争系数呈现非单调变化特征，而跨境供应链成员的风险规避行为会进一步放大这一效应，加剧供应链决策波动。第三，关税与退货成本对自营模式的负面冲击显著强于转售模式，是区分跨境与国内电商供应链销售模式选择逻辑的核心变量；自营模式下平台效用对关税与退货率更为敏感，佣金率与平台效用呈非单调关系，适中佣金区间才能实现平台效用最大化。第四，需求不确定性上升会同步提高供应链各方风险成本，风险规避程度越高，产量与订货量收缩越明显，进而推动整体偏好从自营向转售转移。 本文研究丰富了风险规避视角下跨境电商供应链决策理论体系，将跨境特有关税、退货与竞争因素融入销售模式选择分析框架，拓展了传统电商供应链模型的适用边界。实践层面，研究结论可为跨境制造商根据目标市场竞争、关税与退货环境动态选择销售模式、电商平台优化佣金与定价策略、供应链成员协同管控风险提供决策依据，同时也为政府完善跨境电商关税、退货物流等支持政策、推动跨境电商产业高质量发展提供理论参考。图22幅，表2个，参考文献103篇。
英文摘要：	Against the backdrop of the continuous expansion of global cross-border e-commerce and growing uncertainties in the international trade environment, cross-border e-commerce supply chains are exposed to multiple external shocks, including frequent tariff fluctuations, high cross-border return costs, random market demand volatility, and intensified competition from local manufacturers in destination countries. The risk-averse tendency of supply chain members further increases the complexity and difficulty of sales model decision-making. Most existing studies focus on domestic e-commerce scenarios and rarely incorporate tariffs, returns, competition, and risk aversion into a unified framework to investigate sales model selection for cross-border supply chains. Therefore, this thesis examines a two-echelon supply chain consisting of cross-border manufacturers and e-commerce platforms. Based on the Stackelberg game theory, two decision models are constructed: the first considers only returns and risk aversion, while the second incorporates returns, risk aversion, and competition among local manufacturers in destination countries. The mean-variance criterion is adopted to quantify the risk-averse behaviors of supply chain members. This thesis systematically explores the influencing mechanism of key parameters (i.e., risk aversion degree, competition intensity, tariff rate, return rate, and reverse logistics cost) on pricing, output (order quantity), member utility, and the equilibrium selection of sales modes. The research results indicate the following: First, the optimal sales model selection for cross-border manufacturers and e-commerce platforms presents obvious scenario dependence, and their preferences are not fully aligned. The self-operated mode boasts prominent profit advantages in contexts characterized by weak competition, low risk, low tariffs, and low return rates. By contrast, the resale mode becomes a superior option in scenarios with fierce competition, high risks, high tariffs, and high return rates, owing to its strengths in risk and cost sharing. Second, competition intensity exerts a significant moderating effect on cross-border supply chain decisions. The equilibrium output of local manufacturers varies non-monotonically with the competition coefficient, and the risk-averse behaviors of supply chain members further amplify this effect and exacerbate the volatility of supply chain decisions. Third, tariffs and return costs generate a stronger negative impact on the self-operated mode than on the resale mode, which serves as the core variable distinguishing the sales mode selection logic between cross-border and domestic e-commerce supply chains. In the self-operated mode, platform utility is more sensitive to tariffs and return rates, and the commission rate has a non-monotonic correlation with platform utility; only a moderate commission interval can maximize platform revenue. Fourth, increased demand uncertainty raises the risk costs of all supply chain participants. A higher degree of risk aversion leads to a more significant reduction in output and order quantity, thereby driving an overall strategic shift from the self-operated mode to the resale mode. Theoretically, this thesis enriches the theoretical framework of cross-border e-commerce supply chain decision-making from the perspective of risk aversion. It integrates cross-border characteristic factors including tariffs, product returns and market competition into the analytical framework of sales model selection, thereby expanding the applicable boundaries of traditional e-commerce supply chain models. Practically, the research conclusions provide a decision-making basis for cross-border manufacturers to dynamically select sales modes according to the competition, tariff and return conditions of target markets. The findings also help e-commerce platforms optimize commission and pricing strategies and realize risk coordination among supply chain members. Furthermore, this study offers a theoretical reference for governments to formulate improved supporting policies regarding cross-border e-commerce tariffs and reverse logistics, so as to promote the high-quality development of the cross-border e-commerce industry.
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