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论文编号：	16146
作者编号：	2120243814
上传时间：	2026/6/9 17:27:43
中文题目：	供应链风险对企业杠杆操纵的影响研究
英文题目：	Research on the Effect of Supply Chain Risks on Corporate Leverage Manipulation
指导老师：	姚颐
中文关键字：	供应链风险；杠杆操纵；融资约束；银企关系
英文关键字：	Supply Chain Risks; Leverage Manipulation; Financing Constraints; Bank-Enterprise Relationship
中文摘要：	在经济高质量发展和防范化解系统性金融风险的背景下，企业债务治理与风险防控问题持续受到关注。随着“去杠杆”政策推进，企业为调节账面杠杆率，可能使用名股实债、表外负债等杠杆操纵手段隐匿真实债务，进而形成隐性债务。而企业账面杠杆率能否真实反映其债务负担，不仅关系到自身持续经营能力，也影响市场资源配置效率与整体稳定性。与此同时，全球供应链体系在重构过程中面临的冲击不断增多，不确定性逐渐上升。由于供应链风险具有较强的传导性和外溢性，局部风险可能沿供应链网络扩散，并对企业经营与财务决策产生影响。在此情境下，探讨供应链风险与企业杠杆操纵行为之间的关系，具有较强的理论价值和现实针对性。 本文基于信号传递理论、资源依赖理论和委托代理理论，以2007-2024年间中国沪深两市非金融类上市公司为样本，运用文本分析方法构建供应链风险指标，实证研究供应链风险对企业杠杆操纵的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：第一，供应链风险和企业的杠杆操纵之间存在显著的正相关关系，即供应链风险加剧企业的杠杆操纵行为。第二，机制分析表明，供应链风险主要通过推高企业经营风险和强化企业融资约束两条路径影响企业杠杆操纵。供应链风险不仅会削弱企业经营的稳定性、加大现金流波动性，还会降低企业外部融资的可得性，从而增强企业采取操纵性财务手段的动机。第三，当企业与银行具有更紧密的关系、媒体关注度更高时,供应链风险对杠杆操纵的影响将被减弱。这意味着关系型融资和外部监督能够在一定程度上缓冲供应链风险对操纵行为的冲击。第四，本文进一步探索发现，在供应链集中度较高、分析师关注度较低以及地区金融发展水平较低的情形下，供应链风险对企业杠杆操纵的加剧作用更为明显。 本文从供应链视角考察企业杠杆操纵问题，揭示了外部经营风险向财务行为传导的具体路径，拓展了杠杆操纵影响因素的研究视角，并丰富了供应链风险经济后果的相关文献。通过分析供应链风险的作用路径，为企业杠杆操纵的防控手段研究提供了新思路。本文的研究结论有望为企业优化供应链管理、增强财务韧性，为银行等金融机构完善信贷决策、提升风险识别能力，为政府健全风险监测体系、改善营商环境提供参考。
英文摘要：	Against the backdrop of high-quality economic development and the prevention and mitigation of systemic financial risks, corporate debt governance and risk control have attracted sustained attention. With the advancement of deleveraging policies, firms may resort to leverage manipulation, such as disguised equity-with-debt characteristics and off-balance-sheet liabilities, in order to adjust their reported leverage ratios and conceal hidden debt. Whether book leverage can truthfully reflect a firm’s actual debt burden is crucial not only to its going-concern capability, but also to the efficiency of market resource allocation and overall economic stability. Meanwhile, the global supply chain system has been exposed to increasing shocks and rising uncertainty amid ongoing restructuring. Given the strong transmissibility and spillover effects of supply chain risk, localized disruptions may spread through supply chain networks and affect corporate operations as well as financial decision-making. In this context, examining the relationship between supply chain risk and corporate leverage manipulation is of considerable theoretical and practical significance. Based on signaling theory, resource dependence theory, and agency theory, this study takes Chinese non-financial A-share listed firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2007 to 2024 as the research sample. Using textual analysis, it constructs a firm-level indicator of supply chain risk and empirically investigates the impact of supply chain risk on corporate leverage manipulation as well as its underlying mechanisms. The results show that, first, supply chain risk is significantly positively associated with corporate leverage manipulation; that is, greater supply chain risk intensifies firms’ leverage manipulation behavior. Second, mechanism analysis indicates that supply chain risk affects leverage manipulation mainly through two channels: increasing operating risk and strengthening financing constraints. Supply chain risk not only undermines operational stability and amplifies cash flow volatility, but also reduces access to external financing, thereby strengthening firms’ incentives to adopt manipulative financial arrangements. Third, the positive effect of supply chain risk on leverage manipulation is weakened when firms maintain closer bank-firm relationships or receive greater media attention. This suggests that relationship-based financing and external monitoring can, to some extent, buffer the impact of supply chain risk on manipulative behavior. Fourth, further analysis shows that the aggravating effect of supply chain risk on leverage manipulation is more pronounced when firms face higher supply chain concentration, lower analyst coverage, and lower levels of regional financial development. This study examines corporate leverage manipulation from a supply chain perspective, uncovers the specific path through which external operating risk is transmitted to financial behavior, extends the literature on the determinants of leverage manipulation, and enriches research on the economic consequences of supply chain risk. By identifying the transmission mechanisms through which supply chain risk affects leverage manipulation, this study also provides a new perspective for understanding and preventing such behavior. The findings are expected to offer useful implications for firms seeking to optimize supply chain management and enhance financial resilience, for financial institutions seeking to improve credit decision-making and risk identification, and for governments seeking to strengthen risk monitoring systems and improve the business environment.
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