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论文编号：	16127
作者编号：	1120221280
上传时间：	2026/6/8 17:44:47
中文题目：	技术相似性、创新信息披露与市场解读
英文题目：	Technical Similarity、Innovation Disclosure and Market Interpretation
指导老师：	程新生
中文关键字：	技术相似性；市场技术竞争；创新信息披露；分析师盈余预测；股价崩盘风险；资本市场效率
英文关键字：	Technological Similarity; Market Technological Competition; Innovation Information Disclosure; Analyst Earnings Forecast; Stock Price Crash Risk; Capital Market Efficiency
中文摘要：	技术创新是企业构建持续竞争优势的核心驱动力，企业创新活动并非孤立进行，而是嵌入于由技术结构与竞争关系共同塑造的技术空间之中。随着技术迭代周期缩短与竞争压力的持续驱动，为维持或突破技术竞争地位，企业间的技术学习与追赶行为日益频繁，后发企业向领先者看齐，领先者在竞争威胁中加速布局前沿方向，推动各方在专利布局、研发方向和技术路线上不断向行业前沿集聚，企业间技术相似程度持续提升。技术相似性是指企业与竞争对手在知识结构、研发方向和创新路径上的相似程度，刻画企业在技术空间中的相对位置和竞争态势，深刻影响企业的信息生成方式和资本市场对企业创新价值的解读。 我国正处于从要素驱动向创新驱动转型的关键阶段，在高端装备制造、新能源、人工智能、生物医药等战略性新兴产业领域，竞争压力推动企业间的技术追赶与学习日益激烈，技术相似性竞争已成为主基调。在技术相似竞争格局下，外部投资者难以有效区分企业的特质性创新优势与竞争潜力，企业如何使资本市场准确识别其差异化的创新价值，成为亟待回答的关键问题。 创新价值的准确传递与识别，依赖于信息传递链条的有效运转，在信息供给端，企业需要通过信息披露主动释放差异化创新信号；在信息中介端，分析师需要有效处理与识别企业的创新价值，在市场反馈端，资本市场需要能够将创新价值的信息差异准确反映在定价与风险特征中。在这种背景下，技术竞争所形成的技术相似性格局如何影响企业的创新信息披露行为？资本市场的信息中介和风险机制能否有效应对技术相似竞争带来的信息挑战？对信息供给端的研究，有助于揭示技术竞争环境如何改变企业创新信息披露的成本收益权衡；对信息中介端的研究，有助于理解技术结构关联如何重塑分析师信息生产效率；对市场风险承受端的研究，有助于识别市场技术竞争对资本市场风险的潜在影响。本文不仅有助于深化理论上对技术相似性竞争的理解，也对优化信息披露制度设计、提升资本市场资源配置效率，防范市场风险具有重要实践价值。 本文以2010—2023年中国沪深A股上市公司为研究样本，围绕技术相似性、创新信息披露与资本市场解读这一核心主题，构建由企业信息供给端、资本市场信息中介端以及市场风险承受端的研究框架，系统检验企业所处技术竞争环境如何影响信息披露行为与信息解读路径，进而塑造资本市场信息效率与风险特征。本文主要研究发现如下： 第一，技术相似性显著促进企业创新信息披露，提升了资本市场信息供给水平。研究发现，企业与技术竞争对手的技术相似性越高，其创新信息披露水平越高，且对创新优势信息、创新进展信息和创新成果信息三个子维度均具有显著的正向促进效应。机制检验表明，技术相似性降低了创新信息披露的专有成本，加剧产品市场竞争驱动管理层主动传递差异化竞争优势信号，并且技术相似企业群体更易受到媒体关注与外部监督，形成被动披露压力，共同促进了信息披露水平的提升。调节效应分析表明，在融资约束较强和盈利波动性较高的企业中，技术相似性对企业创新信息披露的促进效应更为显著。进一步研究发现，技术相似性正向影响年报文本语调乐观程度，揭示技术相似性竞争在提升披露数量的同时也引致了披露内容的结构性变化。研究表明，技术竞争环境重构信息披露的成本收益结构，改变了企业创新价值传递的信息供给行为，为理解中国上市公司创新信息自愿披露决策的情境依赖性提供了新的经验证据。 第二，技术相似性显著提高分析师盈余预测准确度，优化了资本市场信息中介解读质量。研究发现，企业与技术竞争对手的技术相似性越高，分析师对其盈余预测的准确度越高。机制检验表明，技术相似性通过吸引更多分析师跟踪增强信息挖掘深度，以及增强企业间会计可比性提高信息利用效率，从而提高预测准确度。调节效应分析表明，在市场势力较弱和分析师实地调研频率较低的企业中，技术相似性改善预测准确度的边际效应更强，揭示了分析师信息获取渠道的差异化影响。进一步研究发现，技术相似企业的分析师研报前瞻性内容比例更高、乐观程度也更高，这意味着技术竞争环境不仅提升了分析师预测的准确度，也在塑造其信息生产的结构与内容。这一发现表明企业在技术空间中的相对位置和竞争态势通过重塑分析师的信息处理环境影响其预测质量，技术相似性不仅是企业竞争战略的重要维度，也是影响资本市场准确识别创新价值的关键情境因素。 第三，技术相似性显著降低企业股价崩盘风险，抑制了资本市场极端风险。研究发现，企业与技术竞争对手的技术相似性越高，其股价崩盘风险越低。该效应主要通过两条路径实现：一是信息披露效应，即技术相似性驱动企业提升信息透明度，压缩了管理层囤积坏消息的操作空间，防止负面信息在企业内部长期积压；二是分析师监督效应，即技术相似性增强分析师的技术关联知识提升了外部监督效能，有效缩短坏消息的积压周期。调节效应分析表明，在外部投资者利用可比信息能力较弱的情境下，技术相似性的崩盘风险抑制效应有所减弱；在机构投资者持股比例较高的情境下，技术相似性的崩盘风险抑制效应得到强化。这一发现揭示了技术相似性通过改善信息环境和强化外部监督降低了资本市场的极端风险，将崩盘风险的研究视角从静态的企业个体属性延伸至动态的技术竞争维度。 综合来看，本文研究表明，在技术竞争以追求差异化突破与技术领先为导向的当前阶段，技术相似竞争压力总体上产生了积极的信息治理效应，驱动企业增加信息供给，改善了信息中介的解读，降低了市场崩盘风险，成为改善资本市场信息生态的重要力量。本文主要的研究贡献如下： 第一，本文将技术竞争环境纳入信息披露影响因素的研究领域，从竞争情境视角深化了对企业信息披露决策机制的理论理解。现有文献主要在收益成本权衡框架下讨论企业信息披露决策，收益视角从信息披露缓解信息不对称，获得资本市场收益（Healy和Palepu，2001；He和Lee等，2023；Chu，2025）和影响市场认知的策略性披露（Huang等，2014；孙雅妮等，2026）展开，成本视角从来自竞争对手和供应链多维度专有成本（Jones，2007；Dai等，2024）视角展开。但企业的信息披露决策并非孤立进行，而是深刻嵌入于企业所处的技术竞争环境之中，来自技术竞争对手的追赶压力和外部关注也可能是影响信息披露决策的重要因素。本文将企业技术竞争环境引入分析框架，发现技术相似性降低信息披露的专有成本，加剧产品市场竞争激发企业主动披露动机，强化媒体关注与外部监督施加被动披露压力，推动了创新信息披露水平的提升。这一发现弥补了既有专有成本理论对竞争情境依赖性认识的不足，为理解中国上市公司创新信息自愿披露决策的情境依赖性提供了新的经验证据与理论参考。 第二，本文将企业间技术关联引入分析师预测研究框架，拓展了信息中介效率影响因素的理论边界。分析师作为资本市场重要的信息中介，其预测质量直接关系到资本市场的信息效率。现有分析师预测准确度的研究主要从企业财务特征（Bilinski，2014）、技术创新能力（Jia，2018）以及分析师能力（刘永泽和高嵩，2014）、从业经验（Cao等，2022）等相对独立的个体层面因素加以考察，较少从企业之间的技术关系这一维度展开分析。本文研究发现，技术相似性通过促进分析师信息挖掘和增强会计可比性显著提升了分析师盈余预测准确度，揭示了企业在技术空间中的相对位置和竞争态势如何通过改善分析师的信息处理环境进而影响其预测质量，为理解复杂技术信息环境下资本市场信息传递机制提供了新的理论视角，并为进一步优化分析师信息生产效率的制度安排提供了经验依据。 第三，本文从企业间技术竞争层面拓展了股价崩盘风险影响因素的研究边界，揭示了技术竞争的风险治理功能。股价崩盘风险是衡量资本市场风险的重要指标，现有关于崩盘风险影响因素的研究，主要从管理层权力与激励（Al Mamun等，2020；Kim等，2011b）、内部控制（Kim等，2019）、分析师和审计师监督（He等，2019；许年行等，2012）、机构投资者（An和Zhang，2013）以及制度环境（Cao等，2016；Liu和Liu，2024）等角度展开，个别研究关注了企业间股东或分析师关联对股价崩盘风险的影响（顾奋玲等，2022；杜勇等。2023；周冬华等，2025），但缺少研究企业间技术结构关联性这一维度如何影响坏消息的积累与释放过程。本文发现技术相似性通过信息披露效应与分析师监督效应压缩管理层囤积坏消息的空间，有效降低股价崩盘风险，将崩盘风险的研究视角从静态的企业个体属性分析拓展至动态的企业间技术关联网络，为理解技术竞争环境与资本市场风险之间的内在联系提供了新的理论视角和经验证据。 第四，本文将技术相似性对资本市场信息链条各环节的影响纳入统一分析框架，从而为理解技术竞争环境与资本市场信息效率的关系提供了新思考。现有关于技术相似性研究主要聚焦于其对企业创新绩效（Arts等，2023；龚红等，2025）、竞争战略（Bena和Li，2014；Grimpe和Hussinger，2014）等单一维度的影响。本文从企业信息供给端、资本市场信息中介端和市场风险反映端三个层面展开，系统阐释了技术相似性如何沿着信息链条影响企业的披露决策、分析师的信息生产与解读以及市场风险特征，为理解微观企业技术竞争格局如何通过信息渠道影响资本市场效率提供了新视角。同时，本文也指出技术相似竞争的信息治理效应以良性竞争为前提，为监管层优化技术竞争政策、防范过度竞争，充分发挥技术竞争在提升资本市场信息效率中的正向治理功能提供了经验依据。
英文摘要：	Technological innovation serves as the core driving force for firms to build sustainable competitive advantages. Corporate innovation activities are not conducted in isolation but are embedded within a technological space jointly shaped by technological structures and competitive relationships. As technology iteration cycles shorten and competitive pressures intensify, firms engage in increasingly frequent interfirm technological learning and catch-up behavior in order to maintain or advance their competitive positions, laggards align themselves with leaders, while leaders accelerate their frontier deployment under competitive threat. This dynamic pushes all parties to converge in their patent portfolios, R&D orientations, and technological trajectories toward the industry frontier, causing interfirm technological similarity to rise steadily. Technological similarity refers to the degree to which a firm’s knowledge structure, R&D direction, and innovation pathway overlap with those of its competitors, capturing a firm’s relative position and competitive posture within the technological space, and profoundly shaping both how firms generate information and how capital markets interpret corporate innovation value. China is at a critical juncture of transitioning from factor-driven to innovation-driven development. Across strategic emerging industries, including high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, artificial intelligence, and biopharmaceuticals, competitive pressures are driving increasingly intense interfirm technological catch-up and learning, making technological similarity competition the defining feature of the current landscape. Under such a technologically convergent competitive landscape, external investors face growing difficulty in effectively distinguishing firms' idiosyncratic innovation advantages and competitive potential, making it a pressing and fundamental question how firms can enable capital markets to accurately identify their differentiated innovation value. The accurate transmission and recognition of innovation value depends on the effective functioning of the information transmission chain. On the information supply side, firms must proactively release differentiated innovation signals through disclosure; on the information intermediary side, analysts must effectively process and identify firms' innovation value; and on the market feedback side, capital markets must be able to accurately reflect informational differences in innovation value through pricing and risk characteristics. Against this backdrop, how does the pattern of technological similarity formed by market-level technological competition affect firms’ innovation disclosure behavior? And can capital market information intermediaries and risk mechanisms effectively respond to the informational challenges posed by technological similarity competition? Research on the information supply side helps reveal how the technological competitive environment alters the cost-benefit calculus of corporate innovation disclosure; research on the information intermediary side helps illuminate how technological structural linkages reshape the information production efficiency of financial analysts; and research on the market risk-bearing side helps identify the potential effects of market-level technological competition on capital market risk. This study not only deepens the theoretical understanding of technological similarity competition, but also carries important practical value for optimizing information disclosure system design, enhancing capital market resource allocation efficiency, and mitigating market risk. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges from 2010 to 2023, and centering on the core theme of technological similarity, innovation information disclosure, and capital market interpretation, this paper constructs a research framework spanning the corporate information supply side, the capital market information intermediary side, and the market risk-bearing side, systematically examining how the technological competitive environment influences information disclosure behavior and information interpretation pathways, thereby shaping capital market information efficiency and risk characteristics. The main findings are as follows. First, technological similarity significantly promotes corporate innovation information disclosure, enhancing the level of information supply in capital markets. Greater technological similarity between a firm and its competitors is associated with higher levels of innovation disclosure, with significant positive effects across all three sub-dimensions: innovation advantage information, innovation progress information, and innovation outcome information. Mechanism tests reveal that technological similarity reduces the proprietary costs of innovation disclosure; intensified product market competition drives management to proactively signal differentiated competitive advantages; and technologically similar firm clusters attract greater media attention and external monitoring, generating passive disclosure pressure, all of which collectively elevate disclosure levels. Moderating effect analysis indicates that the facilitating effect is more pronounced in firms facing tighter financing constraints and higher earnings volatility. Further analysis finds that technological similarity positively affects the optimistic tone and textual convergence of annual reports, revealing that technological similarity competition induces structural changes in disclosure content while simultaneously increasing disclosure volume. These findings demonstrate that the technological competitive environment systematically alters firms’ innovation information supply behavior by restructuring the cost-benefit calculus of disclosure, providing new empirical evidence for understanding the context-dependence of voluntary innovation disclosure decisions among Chinese listed firms. Second, technological similarity significantly improves analyst earnings forecast accuracy, optimizing the quality of information intermediary interpretation in capital markets. Greater technological similarity between a firm and its competitors is associated with higher analyst earnings forecast accuracy. Mechanism tests show that technological similarity improves forecast accuracy by attracting greater analyst coverage to enhance information supply and by strengthening interfirm accounting comparability to improve information utilization efficiency. Moderating effect analysis reveals that the marginal effect of technological similarity on forecast improvement is relatively weaker among firms with greater market power and those subject to more frequent analyst site visits, highlighting the differential impact of analysts’ information acquisition channels. Further research finds that analyst reports for technologically similar firms contain higher proportions of forward-looking content and exhibit greater textual convergence, indicating that the technological competitive environment not only enhances forecast accuracy but also shapes the structure and content of analysts’ information production. These findings demonstrate that firms’ relative positions and competitive postures in the technological space influence analyst forecast quality by reshaping their information processing environment, establishing technological similarity as not merely an important dimension of competitive strategy but a critical contextual factor affecting capital market information intermediary efficiency. Third, technological similarity significantly reduces stock price crash risk, effectively mitigating extreme tail risk in capital markets. Greater technological similarity between a firm and its competitors is associated with lower stock price crash risk. This effect operates primarily through two pathways: first, the information disclosure effect, whereby technological similarity drives firms to enhance information transparency, compressing the operational space available for management to hoard bad news and preventing negative information from accumulating within the firm over extended periods; second, the analyst monitoring effect, whereby technological similarity enhances analysts’ technology-related knowledge, improves external monitoring effectiveness, and thereby shortens the bad news accumulation cycle. Moderating effect analysis shows that the crash risk mitigation effect is attenuated in high-information-asymmetry environments and reinforced in firms with higher institutional investor ownership. These findings demonstrate that technological similarity reduces extreme tail risk in capital markets by improving the information environment and strengthening external monitoring, extending the analytical lens of crash risk research from static firm-level attributes to the dynamic dimension of interfirm technological competition. Taken together, the evidence in this paper demonstrates that in the current stage, characterized by technological competition oriented toward differentiated breakthrough and technological leadership, the competitive pressure arising from technological similarity has overall generated a positive information governance effect, driving firms to increase information supply, improving the quality of information intermediary interpretation, and reducing extreme market risk, thereby emerging as an important force in improving the capital market information ecosystem. The main research contributions of this paper are as follows. First, this paper incorporates the technological competitive environment into the analytical framework of information disclosure determinants, deepening the theoretical understanding of corporate disclosure decision mechanisms from a competitive context perspective. Existing literature has primarily examined disclosure decisions within a cost-benefit tradeoff framework, with the benefit perspective focusing on mitigating information asymmetry to obtain capital market financing benefits (Healy and Palepu, 2001; He and Lee et al., 2023; Chu, 2025) and on strategic disclosure to influence market perceptions (Huang et al., 2014), and the cost perspective focusing on multidimensional proprietary costs from competitors and supply chains (Jones, 2007; Dai et al., 2024). However, firms’ disclosure decisions are not made in isolation but are deeply embedded in their technological competitive environment, competitive pressure from technological rivals and heightened external scrutiny may themselves constitute important determinants of disclosure decisions. By introducing the technological competitive environment into the analytical framework, this paper finds that technological similarity reduces the proprietary costs of disclosure, intensifies product market competition to activate active disclosure incentives, and strengthens media attention and external monitoring to impose passive disclosure pressure, collectively elevating innovation disclosure levels. This finding supplements existing proprietary cost theory’s insufficient recognition of competitive context-dependence, providing new empirical evidence and theoretical reference for understanding the context-dependence of voluntary innovation disclosure decisions among Chinese listed firms. Second, this paper introduces interfirm technological linkages into the analyst forecast research framework, extending the theoretical boundaries of understanding the determinants of information intermediary efficiency. Analysts are critical information intermediaries in capital markets whose forecast quality is directly related to capital market information efficiency. Existing research on the determinants of analyst forecast accuracy has primarily focused on relatively independent individual-level factors, including firm financial characteristics (Cui et al., 2024), technological innovation capability (Jia, 2018), analyst ability (Liu and Gao, 2014), and professional experience (Cao et al., 2022), with limited attention to the dimension of interfirm technological relationships. This paper finds that technological similarity significantly improves analyst earnings forecast accuracy through attracting greater analyst coverage and enhancing accounting comparability, revealing how firms’ relative positions and competitive postures in the technological space influence forecast quality by improving analysts’ information processing environment. These findings offer a new theoretical perspective for understanding capital market information transmission mechanisms in complex technological information environments and provide empirical evidence to support institutional arrangements aimed at optimizing analyst information production efficiency. Third, this paper extends the research boundaries on the determinants of stock price crash risk to the level of interfirm technological competition, revealing the risk governance function of technological competition. Stock price crash risk is an important indicator for measuring capital market risk. Existing research has primarily examined crash risk determinants from the perspectives of managerial power and incentives (Al Mamun et al., 2020; Kim et al., 2011b), internal controls (Kim et al., 2019), analyst and auditor monitoring (He et al., 2019; Xu et al., 2012), institutional investors (An and Zhang, 2013), and institutional environment (Cao et al., 2016; Liu and Liu, 2024). Individual studies have examined the effects of interfirm shareholder or analyst linkages on crash risk (Gu et al., 2022; Du et al., 2023; Zhou et al., 2025), but the dimension of interfirm technological structural linkages, and how it shapes the accumulation and release of bad news, has received little systematic attention. This paper finds that technological similarity compresses management’s motivation and capacity to hoard bad news through the information disclosure effect and the analyst monitoring effect, effectively reducing stock price crash risk. These findings extend the analytical perspective of crash risk research from static firm-level attribute analysis to a dynamic interfirm technological network lens, providing new theoretical insights and empirical evidence for understanding the intrinsic connection between the technological competitive environment and capital market risk. Fourth, this paper integrates the effects of technological similarity on each segment of the capital market information chain into a unified analytical framework, contributing a new perspective on the relationship between the technological competitive environment and capital market information efficiency. Existing research on technological similarity has primarily focused on its effects on single dimensions such as innovation performance (Arts et al., 2023; Gong et al., 2025) and competitive strategy (Bena and Li, 2014; Grimpe and Hussinger, 2014). This paper progressively unfolds across three tiers, the corporate information supply side, the capital market information intermediary side, and the market risk reflection side, systematically elucidating how technological similarity sequentially influences firms' disclosure decisions, analysts’ information production and interpretation behavior, and market risk characteristics along the information supply chain, providing a new perspective for understanding how micro-level firm technological competitive dynamics affect capital market efficiency through information channels. This paper further demonstrates that the information governance effect of technological similarity competition is contingent upon the maintenance of healthy competitive conduct, providing empirical grounds for policymakers to optimize technological competition policy, guard against destructive rivalry, and fully leverage the positive governance function of technological competition in enhancing capital market information efficiency.
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