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论文编号：	16016
作者编号：	2320233744
上传时间：	2026/6/2 22:05:53
中文题目：	唐山港股票的价值投资研究
英文题目：	Value investment research on Tangshan Port stock
指导老师：	王永进
中文关键字：	唐山港；红利股票；价值投资；股票价值评估；投资策略
英文关键字：	Tangshan Port；dividend stocks；value investing；stock value evaluation；investment strategy
中文摘要：	在资本市场多元化和价值投资理念深入人心背景下，红利股票因稳定现金 流回报和稳健基本面，成为投资者资产配置重要选择。但港口行业优质红利股 存在“高分红、稳财务、低估值”的估值错配问题，现有估值体系和投资策略 对港口类重资产成熟期红利股适应性不足，影响投资者决策。本文以唐山港为 例，研究其作为优质红利股估值偏低原因，从格雷厄姆和巴菲特价值投资理论 出发，采用多种方法剖析其红利分配特征和投资价值，运用 DDM、FCFF 等工 具研究估值偏低原因，提出投资策略和企业价值修复建议。 本文先梳理唐山港发展脉络和经营财务现状，其“一港三区”区位优势使 其成全球沿海港口吞吐量第二的核心枢纽，形成以铁矿石等散杂货运输为主导 的业务格局。2020-2024 年，其资产负债结构优化，资产负债率降至 9.86%，成 本控制强，经营现金流长期覆盖净利润，盈利能力和财务稳定性领先。唐山港 红利分配“稳步提升、快速增长、稳定高分红”，2021 年底起连续四次 10 派 2 元，股息率 4.6%-5.3%，股利支付率超 50%。用 DDM 和 FCFF 模型计算其股票 内在价值分别为 10.42 元/股和 9.35 元/股，而 2026 年 3 月 2 日收盘价仅 4.28 元/ 股，折价超五成。其估值低估原因在于行业估值体系偏差、市场偏好、对公司 扩张误读及对红利价值认识不足，非企业经营与分红能力弱化。 根据估值测算和低估成因分析，本文从投资时机选择、多元投资组合构建、 全流程风险控制三方面为投资者提供价值投资策略，明确择时逻辑和资产配置 方式，提出风险管控手段；在研究表明，唐山港是优质红利股，财务稳定、分 红持续，长期投资性价比高，投资策略指导性强。本文为价值投资理论在港口 行业和红利股票领域提供案例支持，指出研究在行业比较和量化分析方面有待 加强，为后续研究指明方向。
英文摘要：	Against the backdrop of diversified capital markets and the widespread adoption of value investing principles, dividend stocks have emerged as a key asset allocation choice for investors due to their stable cash flow returns and solid fundamentals. However, high-quality dividend stocks in the port industry face valuation mismatches characterized by "high dividends, stable financials, and low valuations." Existing valuation frameworks and investment strategies lack adaptability for mature-stage port-heavy asset dividend stocks, which impacts investor decision-making. Using Tangshan Port as a case study, thisthsis investigates the reasons behind its undervaluation as a premium dividend stock. Grounded in Graham and Buffett's value investing theories, the study employs multiple methodologies to analyze dividend distribution patterns and investment value. By applying tools such as Discounted Dividend Model(DDM) and Free Cash Flow(FCFF) analysis, it identifies underlying valuation gaps and proposes tailored investment strategies along with recommendations for corporate value recovery. This thesis first examines the developmental trajectory and financial status of Tangshan Port. Its strategic "one port, three zones" location advantage has established it as the world's second-largest coastal port hub in terms of throughput volume, with a business model dominated by bulk cargo transportation such as iron ore. From 2020 to 2024,the port achieved optimized asset-liability structure with a debt-to-asset ratio dropping to 9.86%,strong cost control, and operating cash flow consistently covering net profits, demonstrating leading profitability and financial stability. Tangshan Port's dividend distribution follows a pattern of" steady growth, rapid expansion, and stable high payouts," having distributed four consecutive 10-yuan dividends per share since late 2021,with dividend yields ranging from 4.6%to 5.3%and dividend payout ratios exceeding 50%.Calculated using DDM and FCFF models, the stock's intrinsic value reaches 10.42 yuan/share and 9.35 yuan/share respectively, while its closing price on March 2,2026 was merely 4.28 yuan/share, representing a discount exceeding 50%.The valuation undervaluation stems from industry valuation system biases,market preferences, misinterpretations of corporate expansion strategies, insufficient recognition of dividend value, and weakened non-operating capabilities alongside dividend distribution capacity. Through valuation analysis and underpricing cause investigation, this study provides value investment strategies for investors from three dimensions: investment timing selection, diversified portfolio construction, and end-to-end risk control. It clarifies market timing logic and asset allocation approaches while proposing risk management measures. Research findings indicate that Tangshan Port constitutes a premium dividend stock with stable financial performance and consistent dividend payouts, offering high long-term investment value and strong strategic guidance. This thesis provides case evidence for value investment theory in port industry and dividend stock sectors, while highlighting areas requiring improvement in industry comparison and quantitative analysis to guide future research directions.
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