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论文编号：	15892
作者编号：	2320233989
上传时间：	2025/12/12 10:32:06
中文题目：	A区城市更新老旧小区改造项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Risk Management of Urban Renewal Old Residential Community Renovation Projects in District A
指导老师：	焦媛媛
中文关键字：	城市更新；老旧小区改造；项目；风险管理
英文关键字：	Urban renewal；Renovation of old residential areas；Project；Risk management
中文摘要：	随着我国城镇化进入高质量发展阶段，城市更新成为提升居民生活品质和优化存量空间的重要途径，老旧小区改造项目作为其核心内容，日益受到重视。近年来，国家持续出台政策推动改造工作，截至2025年，全国已累计改造城镇老旧小区超过10万个。然而，实践中仍面临诸多挑战：政策层面存在配套细则不全、审批流程复杂等问题；资金方面过度依赖政府投入，社会资本参与不足；施工过程中因基础设施老化、空间局限易引发安全与质量隐患；居民诉求多元、协调困难等进一步加剧项目风险。老旧小区改造项目涵盖政策、资金、施工、居民、环境与管理等多维风险，相互交织，若管控不力，易导致工期延误、成本超支甚至社会矛盾。现有研究多集中于改造模式与居民参与，系统性风险管理研究仍较缺乏，尤其缺乏结合具体案例的量化评估与实操策略。 本研究以城市更新为背景，聚焦老旧小区改造项目的风险管理，以A区老旧小区改造项目为例，系统探讨相关理论、现状问题、风险评价及对策。首先，界定城市更新、老旧小区改造项目与风险管理的核心概念，梳理项目全生命周期、风险管理及协同治理等理论基础，明确层次分析法等评价工具的应用逻辑。其次，通过分析A区老旧小区的特征、类型与发展现状，指出其存在基础设施老化、抗风险能力弱、改造难度大、居民参与度低等问题，并面临遗留脆弱性、更新持续性不足与风险多变等挑战，为风险识别提供依据。再次，构建包含政策、资金、施工、居民、环境、管理6个准则层及24个指标的风险评价体系，运用层次分析法确定权重，结合模糊综合评价得出A区改造项目整体风险属“一般”等级，其中资金筹措、施工质量、居民诉求等为关键风险点。最后，提出应从资金、政策、居民、施工、环境、管理六大维度构建系统性风险管理体系：资金上拓宽来源、保障时效、提升效益；政策上维持稳定、强化执行、优化审批；居民方面增强支持、统一诉求、促进参与；施工中严格审查队伍、优化方案、加强质量与安全控制；环境上控制污染、规范废弃物处理、减少交通影响；管理上组建专业团队、强化沟通、规范合同，为项目推进提供全方位保障。
英文摘要：	With China's urbanization advancing into a phase of high-quality development, urban renewal has emerged as a crucial approach for enhancing residents' quality of life and optimizing existing urban fabric. The renovation of old residential communities, as a central component of this endeavor, has garnered significant attention. In recent years, the Chinese government has consistently rolled out policies to accelerate these renovation initiatives. By 2025, more than 100,000 old urban residential communities across the country had undergone renovation. However, numerous challenges remain in practice: at the policy level, these include incomplete supporting regulations and complex approval procedures; financially, there is an over-reliance on government funding and inadequate participation of private investment; construction faces safety and quality risks owing to aging infrastructure and spatial limitations; and divergent resident needs, combined with coordination challenges, further compound project risks. These multidimensional and interwoven risks, if not properly managed, can readily result in delays, cost overruns, and social conflicts. Existing research has predominantly concentrated on renovation models and resident participation, whereas systematic risk management studies are still limited, particularly those integrating case-specific quantitative evaluations and practical strategies. Against the backdrop of urban renewal, this thesis investigates risk management in old residential community renovation projects, using District A as a case study to systematically examine relevant theories, current issues, risk assessment, and countermeasures. First, the core concepts are delineated, and theoretical foundations—including project lifecycle, risk management, and collaborative governance—are examined, thereby elucidating the application of tools such as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Next, by analyzing the characteristics of District A's old residential communities, problems such as aging infrastructure, weak risk resistance, high renovation difficulty, and low resident participation are identified, alongside challenges including historical vulnerabilities, insufficient sustainability of updates, and evolving risks. Subsequently, a risk evaluation system comprising six criterion layers (policy, funding, construction, residents, environment, and management) and 24 indicators is constructed. Using AHP to determine weights and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the overall risk is rated as "moderate," with primary risk factors encompassing fundraising, construction quality, and resident demands. Finally, a systematic risk management system is proposed across six dimensions: diversifying funding sources, ensuring timeliness, and improving efficiency; maintaining policy stability, strengthening implementation, and streamlining approvals; enhancing resident support, unifying demands, and promoting participation; rigorously vetting construction teams, optimizing plans, and reinforcing quality and safety control; mitigating pollution, standardizing waste management, and minimizing traffic impact; and forming professional teams, improving communication, and standardizing contracts—collectively providing comprehensive support for project implementation.
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